US-Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 destroyed or severely damaged Iran's primary enrichment facilities at Natanz and Fordow, eliminated most centrifuges, and killed key nuclear scientists along with senior leadership, leaving no verified enrichment underway. The IAEA has lacked access since mid-2025 and reports being unable to confirm the status or location of remaining 60% enriched uranium stockpiles, though estimates suggest portions survived in tunnels without active processing. Satellite imagery shows reconstruction and vehicle activity at sites like Minzadehei and Pickaxe Mountain through October 2026, yet US assessments indicate at least a year would be required to produce a weapon even if Iran commits to the effort. Trader consensus at 96.8% for "No" reflects these structural setbacks and ongoing diplomatic channels, though rapid underground reconstitution or a shift toward NPT withdrawal could alter timelines before 2027.