US intelligence assessments released this week indicate Iran remains approximately one year from nuclear weapon capability, with no significant setback to its breakout time despite recent US and Israeli airstrikes on nuclear supply chain sites during the ongoing war. IAEA reports from February to April 2026 confirm Iran's stockpile of near-weapons-grade enriched uranium but note no resumption of weaponization activities, aligning with Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard's March threat assessment. Traders' 91.6% consensus on "No" reflects this timeline extending beyond 2027, bolstered by US-Iran diplomatic exchanges—including Iran's softened stance on capping enrichment at 3.5%—and historical patterns where sanctions and sabotage have delayed progress. Late-breaking tests, policy shifts, or escalation could still alter odds.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$586,636 Vol.
$586,636 Vol.
はい
$586,636 Vol.
$586,636 Vol.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
マーケット開始日： Nov 13, 2025, 5:50 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Resolver
0x65070BE91...US intelligence assessments released this week indicate Iran remains approximately one year from nuclear weapon capability, with no significant setback to its breakout time despite recent US and Israeli airstrikes on nuclear supply chain sites during the ongoing war. IAEA reports from February to April 2026 confirm Iran's stockpile of near-weapons-grade enriched uranium but note no resumption of weaponization activities, aligning with Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard's March threat assessment. Traders' 91.6% consensus on "No" reflects this timeline extending beyond 2027, bolstered by US-Iran diplomatic exchanges—including Iran's softened stance on capping enrichment at 3.5%—and historical patterns where sanctions and sabotage have delayed progress. Late-breaking tests, policy shifts, or escalation could still alter odds.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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