Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 67% implied probability that Iran will not withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) before 2027, anchored by Tehran's pattern of rhetorical threats without substantive steps toward exit. Despite IAEA Board censure on June 12 over undeclared nuclear sites and materials, Iran advanced centrifuge installations and 60% uranium enrichment but maintained inspector access and compliance reporting. Recent escalations—including Iran's October 1 missile barrage on Israel and subsequent Israeli airstrikes—prompted parliamentary calls to suspend IAEA cooperation, yet no formal withdrawal process has launched. Structural barriers like intensified sanctions, diplomatic isolation risks, and stalled JCPOA revival talks under prospective U.S. policy shifts reinforce trader caution against near-term defection.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
$83,828 Vol.
$83,828 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
はい
$83,828 Vol.
$83,828 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 67% implied probability that Iran will not withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) before 2027, anchored by Tehran's pattern of rhetorical threats without substantive steps toward exit. Despite IAEA Board censure on June 12 over undeclared nuclear sites and materials, Iran advanced centrifuge installations and 60% uranium enrichment but maintained inspector access and compliance reporting. Recent escalations—including Iran's October 1 missile barrage on Israel and subsequent Israeli airstrikes—prompted parliamentary calls to suspend IAEA cooperation, yet no formal withdrawal process has launched. Structural barriers like intensified sanctions, diplomatic isolation risks, and stalled JCPOA revival talks under prospective U.S. policy shifts reinforce trader caution against near-term defection.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ET
音量
$83,828終了日
Dec 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 67% implied probability that Iran will not withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) before 2027, anchored by Tehran's pattern of rhetorical threats without substantive steps toward exit. Despite IAEA Board censure on June 12 over undeclared nuclear sites and materials, Iran advanced centrifuge installations and 60% uranium enrichment but maintained inspector access and compliance reporting. Recent escalations—including Iran's October 1 missile barrage on Israel and subsequent Israeli airstrikes—prompted parliamentary calls to suspend IAEA cooperation, yet no formal withdrawal process has launched. Structural barriers like intensified sanctions, diplomatic isolation risks, and stalled JCPOA revival talks under prospective U.S. policy shifts reinforce trader caution against near-term defection.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$83,828終了日
Dec 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 67% implied probability that Iran will not withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) before 2027, anchored by Tehran's pattern of rhetorical threats without substantive steps toward exit. Despite IAEA Board censure on June 12 over undeclared nuclear sites and materials, Iran advanced centrifuge installations and 60% uranium enrichment but maintained inspector access and compliance reporting. Recent escalations—including Iran's October 1 missile barrage on Israel and subsequent Israeli airstrikes—prompted parliamentary calls to suspend IAEA cooperation, yet no formal withdrawal process has launched. Structural barriers like intensified sanctions, diplomatic isolation risks, and stalled JCPOA revival talks under prospective U.S. policy shifts reinforce trader caution against near-term defection.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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