Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 1250+ US tornadoes in 2026 at 41% implied probability, propelled by an explosive early-season pace with 270 confirmed tornadoes from January to March per preliminary National Weather Service surveys—surpassing the 1991–2020 Q1 average of around 200. Multiple outbreaks, including the March 5–16 event producing over 150 twisters with several EF3s across the Midwest and Plains, have elevated sentiment amid lingering La Niña conditions fostering strong wind shear and Gulf-sourced CAPE for supercell development. Historical annual averages hover near 1,250, but this front-loaded activity signals potential for above-normal totals if April–June peaks align. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center outlooks through May will track evolving risks, though confirmation lags introduce uncertainty.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日1250以上 41%
950未満 18%
1000〜1049 15%
950〜999 14.0%
$13,509 Vol.
$13,509 Vol.
Jan 10, 2027
950未満
18%
950〜999
14%
1000〜1049
15%
1050〜1099
18%
1100〜1149
11%
1150〜1199
11%
1200〜1249
13%
1250以上
41%
1250以上 41%
950未満 18%
1000〜1049 15%
950〜999 14.0%
$13,509 Vol.
$13,509 Vol.
Jan 10, 2027
950未満
$0 Vol.
18%
950〜999
$0 Vol.
14%
1000〜1049
$0 Vol.
15%
1050〜1099
$0 Vol.
18%
1100〜1149
$0 Vol.
11%
1150〜1199
$0 Vol.
11%
1200〜1249
$13,509 Vol.
13%
1250以上
$0 Vol.
41%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 1250+ US tornadoes in 2026 at 41% implied probability, propelled by an explosive early-season pace with 270 confirmed tornadoes from January to March per preliminary National Weather Service surveys—surpassing the 1991–2020 Q1 average of around 200. Multiple outbreaks, including the March 5–16 event producing over 150 twisters with several EF3s across the Midwest and Plains, have elevated sentiment amid lingering La Niña conditions fostering strong wind shear and Gulf-sourced CAPE for supercell development. Historical annual averages hover near 1,250, but this front-loaded activity signals potential for above-normal totals if April–June peaks align. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center outlooks through May will track evolving risks, though confirmation lags introduce uncertainty.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
マーケット開始日： Feb 24, 2026, 6:46 PM ET
音量
$13,509終了日
Jan 10, 2027マーケット開始日
Feb 24, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 1250+ US tornadoes in 2026 at 41% implied probability, propelled by an explosive early-season pace with 270 confirmed tornadoes from January to March per preliminary National Weather Service surveys—surpassing the 1991–2020 Q1 average of around 200. Multiple outbreaks, including the March 5–16 event producing over 150 twisters with several EF3s across the Midwest and Plains, have elevated sentiment amid lingering La Niña conditions fostering strong wind shear and Gulf-sourced CAPE for supercell development. Historical annual averages hover near 1,250, but this front-loaded activity signals potential for above-normal totals if April–June peaks align. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center outlooks through May will track evolving risks, though confirmation lags introduce uncertainty.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
音量
$13,509終了日
Jan 10, 2027マーケット開始日
Feb 24, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 1250+ US tornadoes in 2026 at 41% implied probability, propelled by an explosive early-season pace with 270 confirmed tornadoes from January to March per preliminary National Weather Service surveys—surpassing the 1991–2020 Q1 average of around 200. Multiple outbreaks, including the March 5–16 event producing over 150 twisters with several EF3s across the Midwest and Plains, have elevated sentiment amid lingering La Niña conditions fostering strong wind shear and Gulf-sourced CAPE for supercell development. Historical annual averages hover near 1,250, but this front-loaded activity signals potential for above-normal totals if April–June peaks align. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center outlooks through May will track evolving risks, though confirmation lags introduce uncertainty.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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