Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts slightly toward 160-179 SpaceX orbital launches in 2026 (34% implied probability), just ahead of 140-159 (30.5%), reflecting a robust first-quarter pace of 38 Falcon family missions—one every 2.3 days—primarily Starlink deployments and the successful Transporter-16 rideshare on March 30. This builds on 165 launches in 2025, enabled by rapid booster reusability (e.g., B1093's 11th flight) and multi-pad operations across Florida, California, and Texas. Key differentiators include Starship's test cadence ramp-up—Flight 12 eyed for late April—and potential for 20+ operational flights if FAA approvals for Florida pads materialize, versus risks from refurbishment bottlenecks, weather delays, or range constraints that could cap totals nearer 140. Upcoming Starlink missions and agency updates will sharpen forecasts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日2026年にSpaceXは何回打ち上げられますか？
2026年にSpaceXは何回打ち上げられますか？
160〜179 34%
140～159 30.5%
180～199 17.9%
200回以上 13%
$246,280 Vol.
$246,280 Vol.
100未満
2%
100～119
1%
120〜139
8%
140～159
31%
160〜179
34%
180～199
18%
200回以上
13%
160〜179 34%
140～159 30.5%
180～199 17.9%
200回以上 13%
$246,280 Vol.
$246,280 Vol.
100未満
2%
100～119
1%
120〜139
8%
140～159
31%
160〜179
34%
180～199
18%
200回以上
13%
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
マーケット開始日： Jan 16, 2026, 12:42 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts slightly toward 160-179 SpaceX orbital launches in 2026 (34% implied probability), just ahead of 140-159 (30.5%), reflecting a robust first-quarter pace of 38 Falcon family missions—one every 2.3 days—primarily Starlink deployments and the successful Transporter-16 rideshare on March 30. This builds on 165 launches in 2025, enabled by rapid booster reusability (e.g., B1093's 11th flight) and multi-pad operations across Florida, California, and Texas. Key differentiators include Starship's test cadence ramp-up—Flight 12 eyed for late April—and potential for 20+ operational flights if FAA approvals for Florida pads materialize, versus risks from refurbishment bottlenecks, weather delays, or range constraints that could cap totals nearer 140. Upcoming Starlink missions and agency updates will sharpen forecasts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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