Trader consensus prices 160-179 SpaceX orbital launches in 2026 highest at 37.5%, narrowly ahead of 140-159 at 34.4%, reflecting a strong but uncertain Falcon 9 cadence following roughly 40 missions completed by early April—annualizing to about 160 if the every-2.3-day pace holds from Q1's record throughput, including back-to-back launches on March 30. This builds on 2025's benchmark 167 launches, driven by Starlink constellation expansion demanding frequent low-Earth orbit insertions, with booster reusability enabling high turnaround. Differentiating factors include launch site constraints at Cape Canaveral and Vandenberg, FAA licensing delays, and Starship's projected 25 flights adding upside potential amid ongoing flight tests, though range safety and weather pose risks to sustaining rates; next manifest updates and Q2 pad utilization will clarify trajectories.