Trader consensus favors the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) securing 19–21 seats at 42.5% implied probability in the April 9, 2026, Kerala Legislative Assembly election, up from 15 in 2021, driven by United Democratic Front (UDF) momentum amid anti-incumbency against the incumbent Left Democratic Front (LDF). Recent opinion polls like IANS-Matrize project a tight UDF-LDF race (UDF 58–69 seats vs. LDF 61–71), bolstering IUML's prospects on its 27 allocated seats in Muslim-stronghold constituencies. IUML MP E.T. Mohammed Basheer predicted a UDF "thumping majority" yesterday, while the party fielded two women candidates for the first time and faced minor backlash from Samastha leaders over general-seat nominations. With campaigning intensifying, turnout in key battlegrounds could tip outcomes in this closely contested 140-seat assembly.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日19〜21 43%
16〜18 30%
22以上 23%
13〜15 22%
NEW
NEW
Apr 9, 2026
10未満
11%
10〜12
8%
13〜15
22%
16〜18
30%
19〜21
43%
22以上
23%
19〜21 43%
16〜18 30%
22以上 23%
13〜15 22%
NEW
NEW
Apr 9, 2026
10未満
$147 Vol.
11%
10〜12
$0 Vol.
8%
13〜15
$0 Vol.
22%
16〜18
$0 Vol.
30%
19〜21
$0 Vol.
43%
22以上
$0 Vol.
23%
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) in the Kerala Assembly as a result of the next Legislative Assembly elections in Kerala.
If results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).Trader consensus favors the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) securing 19–21 seats at 42.5% implied probability in the April 9, 2026, Kerala Legislative Assembly election, up from 15 in 2021, driven by United Democratic Front (UDF) momentum amid anti-incumbency against the incumbent Left Democratic Front (LDF). Recent opinion polls like IANS-Matrize project a tight UDF-LDF race (UDF 58–69 seats vs. LDF 61–71), bolstering IUML's prospects on its 27 allocated seats in Muslim-stronghold constituencies. IUML MP E.T. Mohammed Basheer predicted a UDF "thumping majority" yesterday, while the party fielded two women candidates for the first time and faced minor backlash from Samastha leaders over general-seat nominations. With campaigning intensifying, turnout in key battlegrounds could tip outcomes in this closely contested 140-seat assembly.
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) in the Kerala Assembly as a result of the next Legislative Assembly elections in Kerala.
If results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) in the Kerala Assembly as a result of the next Legislative Assembly elections in Kerala.
If results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
マーケット開始日： Dec 23, 2025, 4:15 PM ET
音量
$147終了日
Apr 9, 2026マーケット開始日
Dec 23, 2025, 4:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) in the Kerala Assembly as a result of the next Legislative Assembly elections in Kerala.
If results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).Trader consensus favors the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) securing 19–21 seats at 42.5% implied probability in the April 9, 2026, Kerala Legislative Assembly election, up from 15 in 2021, driven by United Democratic Front (UDF) momentum amid anti-incumbency against the incumbent Left Democratic Front (LDF). Recent opinion polls like IANS-Matrize project a tight UDF-LDF race (UDF 58–69 seats vs. LDF 61–71), bolstering IUML's prospects on its 27 allocated seats in Muslim-stronghold constituencies. IUML MP E.T. Mohammed Basheer predicted a UDF "thumping majority" yesterday, while the party fielded two women candidates for the first time and faced minor backlash from Samastha leaders over general-seat nominations. With campaigning intensifying, turnout in key battlegrounds could tip outcomes in this closely contested 140-seat assembly.
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) in the Kerala Assembly as a result of the next Legislative Assembly elections in Kerala.
If results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) in the Kerala Assembly as a result of the next Legislative Assembly elections in Kerala.
If results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
音量
$147終了日
Apr 9, 2026マーケット開始日
Dec 23, 2025, 4:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) securing 19–21 seats at 42.5% implied probability in the April 9, 2026, Kerala Legislative Assembly election, up from 15 in 2021, driven by United Democratic Front (UDF) momentum amid anti-incumbency against the incumbent Left Democratic Front (LDF). Recent opinion polls like IANS-Matrize project a tight UDF-LDF race (UDF 58–69 seats vs. LDF 61–71), bolstering IUML's prospects on its 27 allocated seats in Muslim-stronghold constituencies. IUML MP E.T. Mohammed Basheer predicted a UDF "thumping majority" yesterday, while the party fielded two women candidates for the first time and faced minor backlash from Samastha leaders over general-seat nominations. With campaigning intensifying, turnout in key battlegrounds could tip outcomes in this closely contested 140-seat assembly.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問