Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 60.5% implied probability to exactly one magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquake from March 30 to April 5, driven primarily by the U.S. Geological Survey-recorded M7.3 event on March 30 near Vanuatu's Luganville (121 km depth, Coral Sea epicenter), with no additional M6.5+ events through April 1 despite real-time global monitoring. This positions "1" ahead amid a recent seismic uptick—five M6.5+ quakes in the prior 11 days, including a M6.5 off Japan—but returning to USGS historical baselines of roughly 1–2 such events weekly worldwide, tempered by cluster dynamics and low aftershock escalation risk so far. Probabilities taper for higher counts (2 at 27.5%), reflecting inherent seismic uncertainty; watch USGS updates through April 5 for potential shifts from active fault systems like the Pacific Ring of Fire.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日How many 6.5 or above earthquakes March 30 - April 5?
How many 6.5 or above earthquakes March 30 - April 5?
1 61%
2 28%
3 8.1%
4 3.6%
$63,825 Vol.
$63,825 Vol.
2026/04/05
0
1%
1
61%
2
28%
3
8%
4
4%
5
1%
>5
<1%
1 61%
2 28%
3 8.1%
4 3.6%
$63,825 Vol.
$63,825 Vol.
2026/04/05
0
$24,947 Vol.
1%
1
$15,961 Vol.
61%
2
$4,566 Vol.
28%
3
$3,187 Vol.
8%
4
$2,636 Vol.
4%
5
$4,406 Vol.
1%
>5
$8,123 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between March 30, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 60.5% implied probability to exactly one magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquake from March 30 to April 5, driven primarily by the U.S. Geological Survey-recorded M7.3 event on March 30 near Vanuatu's Luganville (121 km depth, Coral Sea epicenter), with no additional M6.5+ events through April 1 despite real-time global monitoring. This positions "1" ahead amid a recent seismic uptick—five M6.5+ quakes in the prior 11 days, including a M6.5 off Japan—but returning to USGS historical baselines of roughly 1–2 such events weekly worldwide, tempered by cluster dynamics and low aftershock escalation risk so far. Probabilities taper for higher counts (2 at 27.5%), reflecting inherent seismic uncertainty; watch USGS updates through April 5 for potential shifts from active fault systems like the Pacific Ring of Fire.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between March 30, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
マーケット開始日： Mar 27, 2026, 5:16 PM ET
音量
$63,825終了日
2026/04/05マーケット開始日
Mar 27, 2026, 5:16 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between March 30, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 60.5% implied probability to exactly one magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquake from March 30 to April 5, driven primarily by the U.S. Geological Survey-recorded M7.3 event on March 30 near Vanuatu's Luganville (121 km depth, Coral Sea epicenter), with no additional M6.5+ events through April 1 despite real-time global monitoring. This positions "1" ahead amid a recent seismic uptick—five M6.5+ quakes in the prior 11 days, including a M6.5 off Japan—but returning to USGS historical baselines of roughly 1–2 such events weekly worldwide, tempered by cluster dynamics and low aftershock escalation risk so far. Probabilities taper for higher counts (2 at 27.5%), reflecting inherent seismic uncertainty; watch USGS updates through April 5 for potential shifts from active fault systems like the Pacific Ring of Fire.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between March 30, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
音量
$63,825終了日
2026/04/05マーケット開始日
Mar 27, 2026, 5:16 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 60.5% implied probability to exactly one magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquake from March 30 to April 5, driven primarily by the U.S. Geological Survey-recorded M7.3 event on March 30 near Vanuatu's Luganville (121 km depth, Coral Sea epicenter), with no additional M6.5+ events through April 1 despite real-time global monitoring. This positions "1" ahead amid a recent seismic uptick—five M6.5+ quakes in the prior 11 days, including a M6.5 off Japan—but returning to USGS historical baselines of roughly 1–2 such events weekly worldwide, tempered by cluster dynamics and low aftershock escalation risk so far. Probabilities taper for higher counts (2 at 27.5%), reflecting inherent seismic uncertainty; watch USGS updates through April 5 for potential shifts from active fault systems like the Pacific Ring of Fire.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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