Trader consensus assigns a commanding 92.5% implied probability to former President Trump arriving 20-25 minutes late to the Greek Independence Day event, driven by his longstanding pattern of moderate delays at public appearances, including recent campaign rallies and past official receptions where extended speeches or preparations routinely cause 15-30 minute overruns. This skin-in-the-game assessment draws on historical base rates from Trump's schedule management, with no major developments in the past week—such as announcements on event logistics or preceding commitments—altering the positioning. Realistic challenges could arise from unusually streamlined transitions or early wrap-ups, potentially landing under 20 minutes, or prolonged prior engagements pushing into 30+ minutes amid traffic or security protocols.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日20 - 25 minutes 100.0%
20分未満 <1%
25 - 30 minutes <1%
30 - 35 minutes <1%
$52,780 Vol.
$52,780 Vol.
Mar 26, 2026
20分未満
いいえ
20 - 25 minutes
Yes
25 - 30 minutes
No
30 - 35 minutes
No
35 - 40 minutes
No
40+ minutes
No
20 - 25 minutes 100.0%
20分未満 <1%
25 - 30 minutes <1%
30 - 35 minutes <1%
$52,780 Vol.
$52,780 Vol.
Mar 26, 2026
20分未満
$19,934 Vol.
いいえ
20 - 25 minutes
$901 Vol.
Yes
25 - 30 minutes
$16,476 Vol.
No
30 - 35 minutes
$205 Vol.
No
35 - 40 minutes
$14,264 Vol.
No
40+ minutes
$1,000 Vol.
No
Donald Trump is scheduled to participate in a Greek Independence Day celebration on March 26, 2026, 4PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the number of minutes past the scheduled start time that Donald Trump begins speaking at his scheduled appearance at the Greek Independence Day celebration. This market will resolve based on when Donald Trump begins speaking.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market is explicitly about Trump's remarks at the Greek Independence Day event scheduled for March 26, 2026. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution.
If no qualifying event occurs by March 26, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be streamed footage of the relevant event from the official White House YouTube page. (https://www.youtube.com/whitehouse)Trader consensus assigns a commanding 92.5% implied probability to former President Trump arriving 20-25 minutes late to the Greek Independence Day event, driven by his longstanding pattern of moderate delays at public appearances, including recent campaign rallies and past official receptions where extended speeches or preparations routinely cause 15-30 minute overruns. This skin-in-the-game assessment draws on historical base rates from Trump's schedule management, with no major developments in the past week—such as announcements on event logistics or preceding commitments—altering the positioning. Realistic challenges could arise from unusually streamlined transitions or early wrap-ups, potentially landing under 20 minutes, or prolonged prior engagements pushing into 30+ minutes amid traffic or security protocols.
Donald Trump is scheduled to participate in a Greek Independence Day celebration on March 26, 2026, 4PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the number of minutes past the scheduled start time that Donald Trump begins speaking at his scheduled appearance at the Greek Independence Day celebration. This market will resolve based on when Donald Trump begins speaking.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market is explicitly about Trump's remarks at the Greek Independence Day event scheduled for March 26, 2026. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution.
If no qualifying event occurs by March 26, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be streamed footage of the relevant event from the official White House YouTube page. (https://www.youtube.com/whitehouse)
This market will resolve according to the number of minutes past the scheduled start time that Donald Trump begins speaking at his scheduled appearance at the Greek Independence Day celebration. This market will resolve based on when Donald Trump begins speaking.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market is explicitly about Trump's remarks at the Greek Independence Day event scheduled for March 26, 2026. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution.
If no qualifying event occurs by March 26, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be streamed footage of the relevant event from the official White House YouTube page. (https://www.youtube.com/whitehouse)
マーケット開始日： Mar 26, 2026, 10:37 AM ET
音量
$52,780終了日
Mar 26, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 26, 2026, 10:37 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: いいえ
Donald Trump is scheduled to participate in a Greek Independence Day celebration on March 26, 2026, 4PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the number of minutes past the scheduled start time that Donald Trump begins speaking at his scheduled appearance at the Greek Independence Day celebration. This market will resolve based on when Donald Trump begins speaking.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market is explicitly about Trump's remarks at the Greek Independence Day event scheduled for March 26, 2026. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution.
If no qualifying event occurs by March 26, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be streamed footage of the relevant event from the official White House YouTube page. (https://www.youtube.com/whitehouse)Trader consensus assigns a commanding 92.5% implied probability to former President Trump arriving 20-25 minutes late to the Greek Independence Day event, driven by his longstanding pattern of moderate delays at public appearances, including recent campaign rallies and past official receptions where extended speeches or preparations routinely cause 15-30 minute overruns. This skin-in-the-game assessment draws on historical base rates from Trump's schedule management, with no major developments in the past week—such as announcements on event logistics or preceding commitments—altering the positioning. Realistic challenges could arise from unusually streamlined transitions or early wrap-ups, potentially landing under 20 minutes, or prolonged prior engagements pushing into 30+ minutes amid traffic or security protocols.
Donald Trump is scheduled to participate in a Greek Independence Day celebration on March 26, 2026, 4PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the number of minutes past the scheduled start time that Donald Trump begins speaking at his scheduled appearance at the Greek Independence Day celebration. This market will resolve based on when Donald Trump begins speaking.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market is explicitly about Trump's remarks at the Greek Independence Day event scheduled for March 26, 2026. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution.
If no qualifying event occurs by March 26, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be streamed footage of the relevant event from the official White House YouTube page. (https://www.youtube.com/whitehouse)
This market will resolve according to the number of minutes past the scheduled start time that Donald Trump begins speaking at his scheduled appearance at the Greek Independence Day celebration. This market will resolve based on when Donald Trump begins speaking.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market is explicitly about Trump's remarks at the Greek Independence Day event scheduled for March 26, 2026. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution.
If no qualifying event occurs by March 26, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be streamed footage of the relevant event from the official White House YouTube page. (https://www.youtube.com/whitehouse)
音量
$52,780終了日
Mar 26, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 26, 2026, 10:37 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: いいえ
Trader consensus assigns a commanding 92.5% implied probability to former President Trump arriving 20-25 minutes late to the Greek Independence Day event, driven by his longstanding pattern of moderate delays at public appearances, including recent campaign rallies and past official receptions where extended speeches or preparations routinely cause 15-30 minute overruns. This skin-in-the-game assessment draws on historical base rates from Trump's schedule management, with no major developments in the past week—such as announcements on event logistics or preceding commitments—altering the positioning. Realistic challenges could arise from unusually streamlined transitions or early wrap-ups, potentially landing under 20 minutes, or prolonged prior engagements pushing into 30+ minutes amid traffic or security protocols.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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