Trader consensus reflects a 92.7% implied probability of no Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by March 31, driven by the enduring UN-brokered truce holding firm since 2022 despite heightened regional tensions from the ongoing Iran war. Recent Houthi rhetoric has escalated with warnings to Riyadh against intercepting missiles and demands for political roadmap fulfillment, but no verified strikes have materialized; Saudi air defenses neutralized reported drone launches toward oil facilities like Shaybah earlier this month. Houthis have instead focused ballistic missile barrages on Israel as of March 28 and Red Sea shipping disruptions. With just two days remaining, traders anticipate continued restraint amid Saudi diplomatic efforts to exclude Yemen from broader escalation, though late-breaking Iranian directives or proxy activations could shift dynamics.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$25,784 Vol.
$25,784 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
$25,784 Vol.
$25,784 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Houthis initiate a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Saudi Arabia's
ground territory between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM Arabian Standard Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Houthi forces that physically impact land under Saudi Arabia's control.
Saudi Arabia's ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Saudi Arabia as of market creation.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris lands on Saudi Arabia's soil or causes damage.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Trader consensus reflects a 92.7% implied probability of no Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by March 31, driven by the enduring UN-brokered truce holding firm since 2022 despite heightened regional tensions from the ongoing Iran war. Recent Houthi rhetoric has escalated with warnings to Riyadh against intercepting missiles and demands for political roadmap fulfillment, but no verified strikes have materialized; Saudi air defenses neutralized reported drone launches toward oil facilities like Shaybah earlier this month. Houthis have instead focused ballistic missile barrages on Israel as of March 28 and Red Sea shipping disruptions. With just two days remaining, traders anticipate continued restraint amid Saudi diplomatic efforts to exclude Yemen from broader escalation, though late-breaking Iranian directives or proxy activations could shift dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Houthis initiate a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Saudi Arabia's
ground territory between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM Arabian Standard Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Houthi forces that physically impact land under Saudi Arabia's control.
Saudi Arabia's ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Saudi Arabia as of market creation.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris lands on Saudi Arabia's soil or causes damage.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
ground territory between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM Arabian Standard Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Houthi forces that physically impact land under Saudi Arabia's control.
Saudi Arabia's ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Saudi Arabia as of market creation.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris lands on Saudi Arabia's soil or causes damage.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
マーケット開始日： Mar 17, 2026, 8:04 PM ET
音量
$25,784終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 17, 2026, 8:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Houthis initiate a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Saudi Arabia's
ground territory between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM Arabian Standard Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Houthi forces that physically impact land under Saudi Arabia's control.
Saudi Arabia's ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Saudi Arabia as of market creation.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris lands on Saudi Arabia's soil or causes damage.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Trader consensus reflects a 92.7% implied probability of no Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by March 31, driven by the enduring UN-brokered truce holding firm since 2022 despite heightened regional tensions from the ongoing Iran war. Recent Houthi rhetoric has escalated with warnings to Riyadh against intercepting missiles and demands for political roadmap fulfillment, but no verified strikes have materialized; Saudi air defenses neutralized reported drone launches toward oil facilities like Shaybah earlier this month. Houthis have instead focused ballistic missile barrages on Israel as of March 28 and Red Sea shipping disruptions. With just two days remaining, traders anticipate continued restraint amid Saudi diplomatic efforts to exclude Yemen from broader escalation, though late-breaking Iranian directives or proxy activations could shift dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Houthis initiate a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Saudi Arabia's
ground territory between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM Arabian Standard Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Houthi forces that physically impact land under Saudi Arabia's control.
Saudi Arabia's ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Saudi Arabia as of market creation.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris lands on Saudi Arabia's soil or causes damage.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
ground territory between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM Arabian Standard Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Houthi forces that physically impact land under Saudi Arabia's control.
Saudi Arabia's ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Saudi Arabia as of market creation.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris lands on Saudi Arabia's soil or causes damage.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
音量
$25,784終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 17, 2026, 8:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects a 92.7% implied probability of no Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by March 31, driven by the enduring UN-brokered truce holding firm since 2022 despite heightened regional tensions from the ongoing Iran war. Recent Houthi rhetoric has escalated with warnings to Riyadh against intercepting missiles and demands for political roadmap fulfillment, but no verified strikes have materialized; Saudi air defenses neutralized reported drone launches toward oil facilities like Shaybah earlier this month. Houthis have instead focused ballistic missile barrages on Israel as of March 28 and Red Sea shipping disruptions. With just two days remaining, traders anticipate continued restraint amid Saudi diplomatic efforts to exclude Yemen from broader escalation, though late-breaking Iranian directives or proxy activations could shift dynamics.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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