Trader consensus heavily favors no U.S. evacuation of the Beirut Embassy by March 31, reflecting the State Department's ongoing maintenance of limited operations despite Level 4 travel advisories for Lebanon amid Israel-Hezbollah tensions. Recent weeks have seen no major escalations—such as ground invasions, direct embassy threats, or diplomatic breakdowns—forcing a non-combatant evacuation operation (NEO), with the U.S. instead authorizing voluntary departures for non-essential personnel since October 2024. Historical patterns show embassies rarely close absent imminent peril, bolstering 98%+ "No" pricing as the wisdom of crowds. Realistic shifts could stem from sudden airstrikes, refugee surges, or Lebanese government collapse prompting rapid reassessment.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
$134,621 Vol.
$134,621 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
はい
$134,621 Vol.
$134,621 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
マーケット開始日： Feb 20, 2026, 4:33 PM ET
音量
$134,621終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Feb 20, 2026, 4:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
音量
$134,621終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Feb 20, 2026, 4:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus heavily favors no U.S. evacuation of the Beirut Embassy by March 31, reflecting the State Department's ongoing maintenance of limited operations despite Level 4 travel advisories for Lebanon amid Israel-Hezbollah tensions. Recent weeks have seen no major escalations—such as ground invasions, direct embassy threats, or diplomatic breakdowns—forcing a non-combatant evacuation operation (NEO), with the U.S. instead authorizing voluntary departures for non-essential personnel since October 2024. Historical patterns show embassies rarely close absent imminent peril, bolstering 98%+ "No" pricing as the wisdom of crowds. Realistic shifts could stem from sudden airstrikes, refugee surges, or Lebanese government collapse prompting rapid reassessment.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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