The U.S. embassy in Beirut continues normal operations without any ordered evacuation, fueling 98% trader consensus against such action by March 31 amid post-ceasefire de-escalation between Israel and Hezbollah since late November 2024. State Department advisories maintain high-risk warnings for Lebanon with voluntary departures authorized for non-essential family members but no directives for full personnel withdrawal, as recent diplomatic channels show no escalation signals like major airstrikes or ground operations targeting Beirut. Over the past 30 days, cross-border incidents have remained limited, underscoring embassy security viability. Realistic catalysts for reversal include sudden Hezbollah rocket attacks, renewed Israeli military escalation, or abrupt diplomatic breakdowns prompting emergency State Department measures.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
$133,421 Vol.
$133,421 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
はい
$133,421 Vol.
$133,421 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
マーケット開始日： Feb 20, 2026, 4:33 PM ET
音量
$133,421終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Feb 20, 2026, 4:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
音量
$133,421終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Feb 20, 2026, 4:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The U.S. embassy in Beirut continues normal operations without any ordered evacuation, fueling 98% trader consensus against such action by March 31 amid post-ceasefire de-escalation between Israel and Hezbollah since late November 2024. State Department advisories maintain high-risk warnings for Lebanon with voluntary departures authorized for non-essential family members but no directives for full personnel withdrawal, as recent diplomatic channels show no escalation signals like major airstrikes or ground operations targeting Beirut. Over the past 30 days, cross-border incidents have remained limited, underscoring embassy security viability. Realistic catalysts for reversal include sudden Hezbollah rocket attacks, renewed Israeli military escalation, or abrupt diplomatic breakdowns prompting emergency State Department measures.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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