Trader consensus assigns a 96.8% implied probability to no declaration of independence by the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) from Iraq by April 30, reflecting entrenched constitutional barriers under Iraq's federal system prohibiting secession, Baghdad's unwavering opposition, and Erbil's economic reliance on federal budget transfers and oil export deals. The 2017 independence referendum's failure—marked by Peshmerga retreats from Kirkuk and halted oil flows—continues to loom large, with no fresh momentum amid KRG's October 2024 parliamentary elections, where the KDP-led coalition prioritizes resolving chronic budget delays and Kirkuk disputes over sovereignty challenges. International support for Iraq's unity, including from the US, further solidifies this stance. Barring an unforeseen escalation like territorial clashes or abrupt leadership changes, the deadline approaches without viable paths to a declaration.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
$30,699 Vol.
$30,699 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
はい
$30,699 Vol.
$30,699 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus assigns a 96.8% implied probability to no declaration of independence by the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) from Iraq by April 30, reflecting entrenched constitutional barriers under Iraq's federal system prohibiting secession, Baghdad's unwavering opposition, and Erbil's economic reliance on federal budget transfers and oil export deals. The 2017 independence referendum's failure—marked by Peshmerga retreats from Kirkuk and halted oil flows—continues to loom large, with no fresh momentum amid KRG's October 2024 parliamentary elections, where the KDP-led coalition prioritizes resolving chronic budget delays and Kirkuk disputes over sovereignty challenges. International support for Iraq's unity, including from the US, further solidifies this stance. Barring an unforeseen escalation like territorial clashes or abrupt leadership changes, the deadline approaches without viable paths to a declaration.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Mar 6, 2026, 1:23 PM ET
音量
$30,699終了日
Apr 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 6, 2026, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus assigns a 96.8% implied probability to no declaration of independence by the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) from Iraq by April 30, reflecting entrenched constitutional barriers under Iraq's federal system prohibiting secession, Baghdad's unwavering opposition, and Erbil's economic reliance on federal budget transfers and oil export deals. The 2017 independence referendum's failure—marked by Peshmerga retreats from Kirkuk and halted oil flows—continues to loom large, with no fresh momentum amid KRG's October 2024 parliamentary elections, where the KDP-led coalition prioritizes resolving chronic budget delays and Kirkuk disputes over sovereignty challenges. International support for Iraq's unity, including from the US, further solidifies this stance. Barring an unforeseen escalation like territorial clashes or abrupt leadership changes, the deadline approaches without viable paths to a declaration.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$30,699終了日
Apr 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 6, 2026, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus assigns a 96.8% implied probability to no declaration of independence by the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) from Iraq by April 30, reflecting entrenched constitutional barriers under Iraq's federal system prohibiting secession, Baghdad's unwavering opposition, and Erbil's economic reliance on federal budget transfers and oil export deals. The 2017 independence referendum's failure—marked by Peshmerga retreats from Kirkuk and halted oil flows—continues to loom large, with no fresh momentum amid KRG's October 2024 parliamentary elections, where the KDP-led coalition prioritizes resolving chronic budget delays and Kirkuk disputes over sovereignty challenges. International support for Iraq's unity, including from the US, further solidifies this stance. Barring an unforeseen escalation like territorial clashes or abrupt leadership changes, the deadline approaches without viable paths to a declaration.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問