The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) shows no signs of pursuing independence from Iraq by April 30, with trader consensus at 96.8% implying "No" driven by entrenched federal ties, constitutional barriers under Iraq's 2005 charter, and economic dependence on Baghdad for budget allocations and oil exports via the federal Ceyhan pipeline. Recent developments reinforce stability: KRG President Nechirvan Barzani's March statements affirmed commitment to Iraq's unity and federalism amid ongoing revenue-sharing talks, while parliamentary elections slated for October prioritize internal reforms over secession. Absent a seismic catalyst like territorial gains or Baghdad collapse—both improbable given U.S.-backed federalism and Peshmerga integration—markets price near-certainty against declaration.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
$30,710 Vol.
$30,710 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
はい
$30,710 Vol.
$30,710 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) shows no signs of pursuing independence from Iraq by April 30, with trader consensus at 96.8% implying "No" driven by entrenched federal ties, constitutional barriers under Iraq's 2005 charter, and economic dependence on Baghdad for budget allocations and oil exports via the federal Ceyhan pipeline. Recent developments reinforce stability: KRG President Nechirvan Barzani's March statements affirmed commitment to Iraq's unity and federalism amid ongoing revenue-sharing talks, while parliamentary elections slated for October prioritize internal reforms over secession. Absent a seismic catalyst like territorial gains or Baghdad collapse—both improbable given U.S.-backed federalism and Peshmerga integration—markets price near-certainty against declaration.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Mar 6, 2026, 1:23 PM ET
音量
$30,710終了日
Apr 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 6, 2026, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) shows no signs of pursuing independence from Iraq by April 30, with trader consensus at 96.8% implying "No" driven by entrenched federal ties, constitutional barriers under Iraq's 2005 charter, and economic dependence on Baghdad for budget allocations and oil exports via the federal Ceyhan pipeline. Recent developments reinforce stability: KRG President Nechirvan Barzani's March statements affirmed commitment to Iraq's unity and federalism amid ongoing revenue-sharing talks, while parliamentary elections slated for October prioritize internal reforms over secession. Absent a seismic catalyst like territorial gains or Baghdad collapse—both improbable given U.S.-backed federalism and Peshmerga integration—markets price near-certainty against declaration.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$30,710終了日
Apr 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 6, 2026, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) shows no signs of pursuing independence from Iraq by April 30, with trader consensus at 96.8% implying "No" driven by entrenched federal ties, constitutional barriers under Iraq's 2005 charter, and economic dependence on Baghdad for budget allocations and oil exports via the federal Ceyhan pipeline. Recent developments reinforce stability: KRG President Nechirvan Barzani's March statements affirmed commitment to Iraq's unity and federalism amid ongoing revenue-sharing talks, while parliamentary elections slated for October prioritize internal reforms over secession. Absent a seismic catalyst like territorial gains or Baghdad collapse—both improbable given U.S.-backed federalism and Peshmerga integration—markets price near-certainty against declaration.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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