Hezbollah has conducted near-daily military actions against Israel since launching its initial rocket and drone barrage on March 2, 2026, in retaliation for Israeli strikes on Lebanon amid broader U.S.-Israeli operations against Iran, shattering a prior November 2024 ceasefire. The Iran-backed group claimed 63 operations—including rocket fire, attack drones, and artillery—over a 24-hour span ending March 23, while a March 26 mortar strike wounded four Israeli soldiers. Israel responded with over 500 airstrikes, evacuations in southern Lebanon, and ground incursions under Operation Roaring Lion since March 16, escalating border clashes. Traders monitor for de-escalation signals, such as diplomatic talks or UN interventions, amid risks of wider regional involvement.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$20,739 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
April 1
91%
April 2
87%
April 3
85%
April 4
82%
April 5
76%
April 6
81%
April 7
80%
April 8
76%
April 9
75%
April 10
75%
$20,739 Vol.
April 1
$553 Vol.
91%
April 2
$194 Vol.
87%
April 3
$43 Vol.
85%
April 4
$0 Vol.
82%
April 5
$20 Vol.
76%
April 6
$204 Vol.
81%
April 7
$19,726 Vol.
80%
April 8
$0 Vol.
76%
April 9
$0 Vol.
75%
April 10
$0 Vol.
75%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah initiates a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Israeli ground territory on the specified date, Israel Standard Time (UTC+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces that physically impact land under Israeli control.
Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Hezbollah has conducted near-daily military actions against Israel since launching its initial rocket and drone barrage on March 2, 2026, in retaliation for Israeli strikes on Lebanon amid broader U.S.-Israeli operations against Iran, shattering a prior November 2024 ceasefire. The Iran-backed group claimed 63 operations—including rocket fire, attack drones, and artillery—over a 24-hour span ending March 23, while a March 26 mortar strike wounded four Israeli soldiers. Israel responded with over 500 airstrikes, evacuations in southern Lebanon, and ground incursions under Operation Roaring Lion since March 16, escalating border clashes. Traders monitor for de-escalation signals, such as diplomatic talks or UN interventions, amid risks of wider regional involvement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah initiates a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Israeli ground territory on the specified date, Israel Standard Time (UTC+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces that physically impact land under Israeli control.
Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces that physically impact land under Israeli control.
Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
マーケット開始日： Mar 24, 2026, 1:04 PM ET
音量
$20,739終了日
Apr 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 24, 2026, 1:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah initiates a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Israeli ground territory on the specified date, Israel Standard Time (UTC+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces that physically impact land under Israeli control.
Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Hezbollah has conducted near-daily military actions against Israel since launching its initial rocket and drone barrage on March 2, 2026, in retaliation for Israeli strikes on Lebanon amid broader U.S.-Israeli operations against Iran, shattering a prior November 2024 ceasefire. The Iran-backed group claimed 63 operations—including rocket fire, attack drones, and artillery—over a 24-hour span ending March 23, while a March 26 mortar strike wounded four Israeli soldiers. Israel responded with over 500 airstrikes, evacuations in southern Lebanon, and ground incursions under Operation Roaring Lion since March 16, escalating border clashes. Traders monitor for de-escalation signals, such as diplomatic talks or UN interventions, amid risks of wider regional involvement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah initiates a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Israeli ground territory on the specified date, Israel Standard Time (UTC+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces that physically impact land under Israeli control.
Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces that physically impact land under Israeli control.
Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
音量
$20,739終了日
Apr 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 24, 2026, 1:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Hezbollah has conducted near-daily military actions against Israel since launching its initial rocket and drone barrage on March 2, 2026, in retaliation for Israeli strikes on Lebanon amid broader U.S.-Israeli operations against Iran, shattering a prior November 2024 ceasefire. The Iran-backed group claimed 63 operations—including rocket fire, attack drones, and artillery—over a 24-hour span ending March 23, while a March 26 mortar strike wounded four Israeli soldiers. Israel responded with over 500 airstrikes, evacuations in southern Lebanon, and ground incursions under Operation Roaring Lion since March 16, escalating border clashes. Traders monitor for de-escalation signals, such as diplomatic talks or UN interventions, amid risks of wider regional involvement.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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