Polymarket traders price a 91.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, reflecting robust U.S. labor market data and steady inflation pressures. Yesterday's March nonfarm payrolls report revealed 178,000 jobs added—far exceeding forecasts of 60,000—with unemployment dipping to 4.3%, bolstering the case for policy patience amid February CPI holding at 2.4% year-over-year. Chair Powell's recent Harvard remarks reaffirmed commitment to the 2% inflation target despite fiscal and geopolitical headwinds like elevated oil prices. Consensus aligns with CME FedWatch's near-98% no-change odds through mid-year. Challenges could arise from downside surprises in April 10 CPI or April 28-29 FOMC data prompting recession fears or renewed disinflation.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日変更なし 92%
25ベーシスポイント引き下げ 5%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ 2.7%
50ベーシスポイント以上の引き下げ <1%
$5,475,297 Vol.
$5,475,297 Vol.
2026/06/17
50ベーシスポイント以上の引き下げ
1%
25ベーシスポイント引き下げ
5%
変更なし
92%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ
3%
50ベーシスポイント以上の利上げ
1%
変更なし 92%
25ベーシスポイント引き下げ 5%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ 2.7%
50ベーシスポイント以上の引き下げ <1%
$5,475,297 Vol.
$5,475,297 Vol.
2026/06/17
50ベーシスポイント以上の引き下げ
$1,593,867 Vol.
1%
25ベーシスポイント引き下げ
$746,068 Vol.
5%
変更なし
$1,128,736 Vol.
92%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ
$1,091,984 Vol.
3%
50ベーシスポイント以上の利上げ
$914,643 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders price a 91.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, reflecting robust U.S. labor market data and steady inflation pressures. Yesterday's March nonfarm payrolls report revealed 178,000 jobs added—far exceeding forecasts of 60,000—with unemployment dipping to 4.3%, bolstering the case for policy patience amid February CPI holding at 2.4% year-over-year. Chair Powell's recent Harvard remarks reaffirmed commitment to the 2% inflation target despite fiscal and geopolitical headwinds like elevated oil prices. Consensus aligns with CME FedWatch's near-98% no-change odds through mid-year. Challenges could arise from downside surprises in April 10 CPI or April 28-29 FOMC data prompting recession fears or renewed disinflation.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
マーケット開始日： Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ET
音量
$5,475,297終了日
2026/06/17マーケット開始日
Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders price a 91.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, reflecting robust U.S. labor market data and steady inflation pressures. Yesterday's March nonfarm payrolls report revealed 178,000 jobs added—far exceeding forecasts of 60,000—with unemployment dipping to 4.3%, bolstering the case for policy patience amid February CPI holding at 2.4% year-over-year. Chair Powell's recent Harvard remarks reaffirmed commitment to the 2% inflation target despite fiscal and geopolitical headwinds like elevated oil prices. Consensus aligns with CME FedWatch's near-98% no-change odds through mid-year. Challenges could arise from downside surprises in April 10 CPI or April 28-29 FOMC data prompting recession fears or renewed disinflation.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
音量
$5,475,297終了日
2026/06/17マーケット開始日
Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price a 91.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, reflecting robust U.S. labor market data and steady inflation pressures. Yesterday's March nonfarm payrolls report revealed 178,000 jobs added—far exceeding forecasts of 60,000—with unemployment dipping to 4.3%, bolstering the case for policy patience amid February CPI holding at 2.4% year-over-year. Chair Powell's recent Harvard remarks reaffirmed commitment to the 2% inflation target despite fiscal and geopolitical headwinds like elevated oil prices. Consensus aligns with CME FedWatch's near-98% no-change odds through mid-year. Challenges could arise from downside surprises in April 10 CPI or April 28-29 FOMC data prompting recession fears or renewed disinflation.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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