Polymarket traders price an 86.5% implied probability of no change to the federal funds target range at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, reflecting strong consensus after the Federal Reserve's March 17-18 decision to hold rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% amid elevated inflation risks. Updated Summary of Economic Projections raised 2026 PCE inflation forecasts to 2.7% from 2.4%, citing persistent pressures from oil shocks and geopolitical tensions, while February CPI held at 2.4% year-over-year and nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly lost 92,000 jobs, lifting unemployment to 4.4%. This balances softening labor conditions against sticky prices, tempering near-term cut odds (6.5% for 25 bps decrease) and hike expectations (5.5% for 25 bps increase). Key catalysts ahead include April CPI and jobs data, with CME FedWatch aligning on a steady path near 3.7%.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日変更なし 87%
25ベーシスポイント引き下げ 7%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ 5.5%
50ベーシスポイント以上の利上げ 1.0%
$4,367,484 Vol.
$4,367,484 Vol.
Jun 17, 2026
50ベーシスポイント以上の引き下げ
1%
25ベーシスポイント引き下げ
7%
変更なし
87%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ
6%
50ベーシスポイント以上の利上げ
1%
変更なし 87%
25ベーシスポイント引き下げ 7%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ 5.5%
50ベーシスポイント以上の利上げ 1.0%
$4,367,484 Vol.
$4,367,484 Vol.
Jun 17, 2026
50ベーシスポイント以上の引き下げ
$1,245,584 Vol.
1%
25ベーシスポイント引き下げ
$568,596 Vol.
7%
変更なし
$978,101 Vol.
87%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ
$851,811 Vol.
6%
50ベーシスポイント以上の利上げ
$724,406 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders price an 86.5% implied probability of no change to the federal funds target range at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, reflecting strong consensus after the Federal Reserve's March 17-18 decision to hold rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% amid elevated inflation risks. Updated Summary of Economic Projections raised 2026 PCE inflation forecasts to 2.7% from 2.4%, citing persistent pressures from oil shocks and geopolitical tensions, while February CPI held at 2.4% year-over-year and nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly lost 92,000 jobs, lifting unemployment to 4.4%. This balances softening labor conditions against sticky prices, tempering near-term cut odds (6.5% for 25 bps decrease) and hike expectations (5.5% for 25 bps increase). Key catalysts ahead include April CPI and jobs data, with CME FedWatch aligning on a steady path near 3.7%.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
マーケット開始日： Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ET
音量
$4,367,484終了日
Jun 17, 2026マーケット開始日
Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders price an 86.5% implied probability of no change to the federal funds target range at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, reflecting strong consensus after the Federal Reserve's March 17-18 decision to hold rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% amid elevated inflation risks. Updated Summary of Economic Projections raised 2026 PCE inflation forecasts to 2.7% from 2.4%, citing persistent pressures from oil shocks and geopolitical tensions, while February CPI held at 2.4% year-over-year and nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly lost 92,000 jobs, lifting unemployment to 4.4%. This balances softening labor conditions against sticky prices, tempering near-term cut odds (6.5% for 25 bps decrease) and hike expectations (5.5% for 25 bps increase). Key catalysts ahead include April CPI and jobs data, with CME FedWatch aligning on a steady path near 3.7%.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
音量
$4,367,484終了日
Jun 17, 2026マーケット開始日
Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price an 86.5% implied probability of no change to the federal funds target range at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, reflecting strong consensus after the Federal Reserve's March 17-18 decision to hold rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% amid elevated inflation risks. Updated Summary of Economic Projections raised 2026 PCE inflation forecasts to 2.7% from 2.4%, citing persistent pressures from oil shocks and geopolitical tensions, while February CPI held at 2.4% year-over-year and nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly lost 92,000 jobs, lifting unemployment to 4.4%. This balances softening labor conditions against sticky prices, tempering near-term cut odds (6.5% for 25 bps decrease) and hike expectations (5.5% for 25 bps increase). Key catalysts ahead include April CPI and jobs data, with CME FedWatch aligning on a steady path near 3.7%.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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