Polymarket traders are pricing a 96.7% implied probability for no change in the federal funds rate at the April 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting strong consensus from the March 18 decision to hold rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid stable February CPI inflation at 2.4% year-over-year and resilient labor market data, including initial jobless claims near 210,000. Chair Powell's press conference emphasized the current policy stance as appropriate, with the dot plot projecting just one cut later in 2026. This skin-in-the-game sentiment aligns with CME FedWatch odds above 94%. A hotter-than-expected March CPI release on April 10 or sudden labor market weakening could challenge this positioning, though recent trends suggest limited catalysts for adjustment.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日変更なし 96.7%
25ベーシスポイント以上の利上げ 1.8%
25ベーシスポイント引き下げ 1.0%
50ベーシスポイント以上の引き下げ <1%
$37,216,463 Vol.
$37,216,463 Vol.
Apr 29, 2026
50ベーシスポイント以上の引き下げ
<1%
25ベーシスポイント引き下げ
1%
変更なし
97%
25ベーシスポイント以上の利上げ
2%
変更なし 96.7%
25ベーシスポイント以上の利上げ 1.8%
25ベーシスポイント引き下げ 1.0%
50ベーシスポイント以上の引き下げ <1%
$37,216,463 Vol.
$37,216,463 Vol.
Apr 29, 2026
50ベーシスポイント以上の引き下げ
$12,874,894 Vol.
<1%
25ベーシスポイント引き下げ
$7,660,372 Vol.
1%
変更なし
$7,751,043 Vol.
97%
25ベーシスポイント以上の利上げ
$8,931,039 Vol.
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders are pricing a 96.7% implied probability for no change in the federal funds rate at the April 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting strong consensus from the March 18 decision to hold rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid stable February CPI inflation at 2.4% year-over-year and resilient labor market data, including initial jobless claims near 210,000. Chair Powell's press conference emphasized the current policy stance as appropriate, with the dot plot projecting just one cut later in 2026. This skin-in-the-game sentiment aligns with CME FedWatch odds above 94%. A hotter-than-expected March CPI release on April 10 or sudden labor market weakening could challenge this positioning, though recent trends suggest limited catalysts for adjustment.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
マーケット開始日： Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ET
音量
$37,216,463終了日
Apr 29, 2026マーケット開始日
Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders are pricing a 96.7% implied probability for no change in the federal funds rate at the April 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting strong consensus from the March 18 decision to hold rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid stable February CPI inflation at 2.4% year-over-year and resilient labor market data, including initial jobless claims near 210,000. Chair Powell's press conference emphasized the current policy stance as appropriate, with the dot plot projecting just one cut later in 2026. This skin-in-the-game sentiment aligns with CME FedWatch odds above 94%. A hotter-than-expected March CPI release on April 10 or sudden labor market weakening could challenge this positioning, though recent trends suggest limited catalysts for adjustment.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
音量
$37,216,463終了日
Apr 29, 2026マーケット開始日
Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders are pricing a 96.7% implied probability for no change in the federal funds rate at the April 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting strong consensus from the March 18 decision to hold rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid stable February CPI inflation at 2.4% year-over-year and resilient labor market data, including initial jobless claims near 210,000. Chair Powell's press conference emphasized the current policy stance as appropriate, with the dot plot projecting just one cut later in 2026. This skin-in-the-game sentiment aligns with CME FedWatch odds above 94%. A hotter-than-expected March CPI release on April 10 or sudden labor market weakening could challenge this positioning, though recent trends suggest limited catalysts for adjustment.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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