Polymarket traders price a 97% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting strong consensus from the March 18 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% amid sticky core PCE inflation projected at 2.7% for 2026 and resilient labor markets. Chair Powell's hawkish press conference highlighted insufficient progress toward the 2% target, reinforced by January core inflation at 3.1% and mixed jobs data, with the dot plot signaling just one cut later in 2026. This aligns with CME FedWatch odds near 95% for steady policy. Realistic challenges include a sharp unemployment spike above 4.4% or sub-2% inflation readings from upcoming CPI and PCE releases, though upside inflation risks from energy prices currently dominate sentiment.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日変更なし 97.0%
25ベーシスポイント以上の利上げ 1.7%
25ベーシスポイント引き下げ 1.0%
50ベーシスポイント以上の引き下げ <1%
$38,630,184 Vol.
$38,630,184 Vol.
Apr 29, 2026
50ベーシスポイント以上の引き下げ
<1%
25ベーシスポイント引き下げ
1%
変更なし
97%
25ベーシスポイント以上の利上げ
2%
変更なし 97.0%
25ベーシスポイント以上の利上げ 1.7%
25ベーシスポイント引き下げ 1.0%
50ベーシスポイント以上の引き下げ <1%
$38,630,184 Vol.
$38,630,184 Vol.
Apr 29, 2026
50ベーシスポイント以上の引き下げ
$13,825,685 Vol.
<1%
25ベーシスポイント引き下げ
$7,778,572 Vol.
1%
変更なし
$7,966,253 Vol.
97%
25ベーシスポイント以上の利上げ
$9,061,084 Vol.
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders price a 97% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting strong consensus from the March 18 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% amid sticky core PCE inflation projected at 2.7% for 2026 and resilient labor markets. Chair Powell's hawkish press conference highlighted insufficient progress toward the 2% target, reinforced by January core inflation at 3.1% and mixed jobs data, with the dot plot signaling just one cut later in 2026. This aligns with CME FedWatch odds near 95% for steady policy. Realistic challenges include a sharp unemployment spike above 4.4% or sub-2% inflation readings from upcoming CPI and PCE releases, though upside inflation risks from energy prices currently dominate sentiment.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
マーケット開始日： Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ET
音量
$38,630,184終了日
Apr 29, 2026マーケット開始日
Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders price a 97% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting strong consensus from the March 18 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% amid sticky core PCE inflation projected at 2.7% for 2026 and resilient labor markets. Chair Powell's hawkish press conference highlighted insufficient progress toward the 2% target, reinforced by January core inflation at 3.1% and mixed jobs data, with the dot plot signaling just one cut later in 2026. This aligns with CME FedWatch odds near 95% for steady policy. Realistic challenges include a sharp unemployment spike above 4.4% or sub-2% inflation readings from upcoming CPI and PCE releases, though upside inflation risks from energy prices currently dominate sentiment.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
音量
$38,630,184終了日
Apr 29, 2026マーケット開始日
Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price a 97% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting strong consensus from the March 18 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% amid sticky core PCE inflation projected at 2.7% for 2026 and resilient labor markets. Chair Powell's hawkish press conference highlighted insufficient progress toward the 2% target, reinforced by January core inflation at 3.1% and mixed jobs data, with the dot plot signaling just one cut later in 2026. This aligns with CME FedWatch odds near 95% for steady policy. Realistic challenges include a sharp unemployment spike above 4.4% or sub-2% inflation readings from upcoming CPI and PCE releases, though upside inflation risks from energy prices currently dominate sentiment.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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