Traders' near-certain consensus at 96% against EU dissolution before 2027 reflects the absence of any member state invoking Article 50 since Brexit, coupled with deep economic interdependence via the single market and eurozone. Recent EU actions, including March 2026 leaders' deadlines to bolster single market integration amid global turmoil and April reinforcements to carbon market stability, underscore institutional resilience despite challenges like Russia's Ukraine war, right-wing electoral gains in France and Germany, and US policy shifts. No verified momentum for exits exists, with Eurosceptic parties lacking parliamentary supermajorities for referendums or treaty changes. Realistic shifts could arise from a cascade of national crises—severe debt defaults, migration surges, or geopolitical escalations—triggering no-confidence votes or snap elections, though ratification timelines make pre-2027 breakup improbable.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日EUは2027年までに解散しますか？
EUは2027年までに解散しますか？
はい
$163,234 Vol.
$163,234 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$163,234 Vol.
$163,234 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders' near-certain consensus at 96% against EU dissolution before 2027 reflects the absence of any member state invoking Article 50 since Brexit, coupled with deep economic interdependence via the single market and eurozone. Recent EU actions, including March 2026 leaders' deadlines to bolster single market integration amid global turmoil and April reinforcements to carbon market stability, underscore institutional resilience despite challenges like Russia's Ukraine war, right-wing electoral gains in France and Germany, and US policy shifts. No verified momentum for exits exists, with Eurosceptic parties lacking parliamentary supermajorities for referendums or treaty changes. Realistic shifts could arise from a cascade of national crises—severe debt defaults, migration surges, or geopolitical escalations—triggering no-confidence votes or snap elections, though ratification timelines make pre-2027 breakup improbable.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ET
音量
$163,234終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders' near-certain consensus at 96% against EU dissolution before 2027 reflects the absence of any member state invoking Article 50 since Brexit, coupled with deep economic interdependence via the single market and eurozone. Recent EU actions, including March 2026 leaders' deadlines to bolster single market integration amid global turmoil and April reinforcements to carbon market stability, underscore institutional resilience despite challenges like Russia's Ukraine war, right-wing electoral gains in France and Germany, and US policy shifts. No verified momentum for exits exists, with Eurosceptic parties lacking parliamentary supermajorities for referendums or treaty changes. Realistic shifts could arise from a cascade of national crises—severe debt defaults, migration surges, or geopolitical escalations—triggering no-confidence votes or snap elections, though ratification timelines make pre-2027 breakup improbable.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$163,234終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders' near-certain consensus at 96% against EU dissolution before 2027 reflects the absence of any member state invoking Article 50 since Brexit, coupled with deep economic interdependence via the single market and eurozone. Recent EU actions, including March 2026 leaders' deadlines to bolster single market integration amid global turmoil and April reinforcements to carbon market stability, underscore institutional resilience despite challenges like Russia's Ukraine war, right-wing electoral gains in France and Germany, and US policy shifts. No verified momentum for exits exists, with Eurosceptic parties lacking parliamentary supermajorities for referendums or treaty changes. Realistic shifts could arise from a cascade of national crises—severe debt defaults, migration surges, or geopolitical escalations—triggering no-confidence votes or snap elections, though ratification timelines make pre-2027 breakup improbable.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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