Trader consensus assigns a 96.5% implied probability to the European Union not dissolving before 2027, driven by deeply entrenched treaties requiring unanimous member state approval for any structural breakup and the absence of Article 50 withdrawal activations since Brexit. Recent April 2026 progress in enlargement talks with Ukraine and Moldova—unblocking key negotiating clusters—signals expansion and reinforced cohesion amid ongoing geopolitical strains like the Ukraine conflict. The single market, eurozone stability mechanisms, and lack of credible exit referendums or no-confidence motions in major states like France or Germany underpin this near-certain positioning. Realistic shifts would demand unprecedented catalysts, such as multiple simultaneous Article 50 invocations by core economies or a bloc-wide economic meltdown fracturing diplomatic relations.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日EUは2027年までに解散しますか？
EUは2027年までに解散しますか？
はい
$163,608 Vol.
$163,608 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$163,608 Vol.
$163,608 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus assigns a 96.5% implied probability to the European Union not dissolving before 2027, driven by deeply entrenched treaties requiring unanimous member state approval for any structural breakup and the absence of Article 50 withdrawal activations since Brexit. Recent April 2026 progress in enlargement talks with Ukraine and Moldova—unblocking key negotiating clusters—signals expansion and reinforced cohesion amid ongoing geopolitical strains like the Ukraine conflict. The single market, eurozone stability mechanisms, and lack of credible exit referendums or no-confidence motions in major states like France or Germany underpin this near-certain positioning. Realistic shifts would demand unprecedented catalysts, such as multiple simultaneous Article 50 invocations by core economies or a bloc-wide economic meltdown fracturing diplomatic relations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ET
音量
$163,608終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus assigns a 96.5% implied probability to the European Union not dissolving before 2027, driven by deeply entrenched treaties requiring unanimous member state approval for any structural breakup and the absence of Article 50 withdrawal activations since Brexit. Recent April 2026 progress in enlargement talks with Ukraine and Moldova—unblocking key negotiating clusters—signals expansion and reinforced cohesion amid ongoing geopolitical strains like the Ukraine conflict. The single market, eurozone stability mechanisms, and lack of credible exit referendums or no-confidence motions in major states like France or Germany underpin this near-certain positioning. Realistic shifts would demand unprecedented catalysts, such as multiple simultaneous Article 50 invocations by core economies or a bloc-wide economic meltdown fracturing diplomatic relations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$163,608終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus assigns a 96.5% implied probability to the European Union not dissolving before 2027, driven by deeply entrenched treaties requiring unanimous member state approval for any structural breakup and the absence of Article 50 withdrawal activations since Brexit. Recent April 2026 progress in enlargement talks with Ukraine and Moldova—unblocking key negotiating clusters—signals expansion and reinforced cohesion amid ongoing geopolitical strains like the Ukraine conflict. The single market, eurozone stability mechanisms, and lack of credible exit referendums or no-confidence motions in major states like France or Germany underpin this near-certain positioning. Realistic shifts would demand unprecedented catalysts, such as multiple simultaneous Article 50 invocations by core economies or a bloc-wide economic meltdown fracturing diplomatic relations.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問