The European Union's treaty architecture, with its requirement for unanimous member consent on core changes and no formal dissolution mechanism, anchors the 96.6% trader consensus against breakup before 2027. Deep economic integration through the single market and eurozone, plus incremental steps such as Bulgaria's euro accession, reinforce institutional resilience amid external pressures like trade tensions and security challenges. Nationalist and populist gains in several states have fueled internal friction but produced no coordinated exit campaigns or treaty renegotiations capable of triggering collapse. While simultaneous leadership shifts or acute crises could theoretically accelerate fragmentation, legal barriers, shared economic stakes, and historical precedent of adaptation make dissolution by the December 31, 2026, resolution date a remote tail risk.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日EUは2027年までに解散しますか？
EUは2027年までに解散しますか？
はい
$169,559 Vol.
$169,559 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$169,559 Vol.
$169,559 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The European Union's treaty architecture, with its requirement for unanimous member consent on core changes and no formal dissolution mechanism, anchors the 96.6% trader consensus against breakup before 2027. Deep economic integration through the single market and eurozone, plus incremental steps such as Bulgaria's euro accession, reinforce institutional resilience amid external pressures like trade tensions and security challenges. Nationalist and populist gains in several states have fueled internal friction but produced no coordinated exit campaigns or treaty renegotiations capable of triggering collapse. While simultaneous leadership shifts or acute crises could theoretically accelerate fragmentation, legal barriers, shared economic stakes, and historical precedent of adaptation make dissolution by the December 31, 2026, resolution date a remote tail risk.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ET
音量
$169,559終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The European Union's treaty architecture, with its requirement for unanimous member consent on core changes and no formal dissolution mechanism, anchors the 96.6% trader consensus against breakup before 2027. Deep economic integration through the single market and eurozone, plus incremental steps such as Bulgaria's euro accession, reinforce institutional resilience amid external pressures like trade tensions and security challenges. Nationalist and populist gains in several states have fueled internal friction but produced no coordinated exit campaigns or treaty renegotiations capable of triggering collapse. While simultaneous leadership shifts or acute crises could theoretically accelerate fragmentation, legal barriers, shared economic stakes, and historical precedent of adaptation make dissolution by the December 31, 2026, resolution date a remote tail risk.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$169,559終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The European Union's treaty architecture, with its requirement for unanimous member consent on core changes and no formal dissolution mechanism, anchors the 96.6% trader consensus against breakup before 2027. Deep economic integration through the single market and eurozone, plus incremental steps such as Bulgaria's euro accession, reinforce institutional resilience amid external pressures like trade tensions and security challenges. Nationalist and populist gains in several states have fueled internal friction but produced no coordinated exit campaigns or treaty renegotiations capable of triggering collapse. While simultaneous leadership shifts or acute crises could theoretically accelerate fragmentation, legal barriers, shared economic stakes, and historical precedent of adaptation make dissolution by the December 31, 2026, resolution date a remote tail risk.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問