The entrenched institutional architecture of the EU, anchored in binding treaties and requiring unanimous member-state consent for fundamental changes, underpins trader consensus that dissolution before 2027 remains improbable. No recent legislative votes, referendums, or coordinated exits have materialized to challenge this framework, while ongoing policy coordination on trade, security, and enlargement continues without disruption. Historical patterns of incremental reform rather than fragmentation further support the current pricing. Even plausible shocks such as severe economic downturns, shifts in national governments, or escalated external pressures would likely trigger negotiations or partial adjustments instead of outright dissolution within the compressed timeline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日EUは2027年までに解散しますか？
EUは2027年までに解散しますか？
はい
2% 確率
$178,938 Vol.
$178,938 Vol.
2026/12/30
はい
2% 確率
$178,938 Vol.
$178,938 Vol.
2026/12/30
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The entrenched institutional architecture of the EU, anchored in binding treaties and requiring unanimous member-state consent for fundamental changes, underpins trader consensus that dissolution before 2027 remains improbable. No recent legislative votes, referendums, or coordinated exits have materialized to challenge this framework, while ongoing policy coordination on trade, security, and enlargement continues without disruption. Historical patterns of incremental reform rather than fragmentation further support the current pricing. Even plausible shocks such as severe economic downturns, shifts in national governments, or escalated external pressures would likely trigger negotiations or partial adjustments instead of outright dissolution within the compressed timeline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ET
音量
$178,938終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The entrenched institutional architecture of the EU, anchored in binding treaties and requiring unanimous member-state consent for fundamental changes, underpins trader consensus that dissolution before 2027 remains improbable. No recent legislative votes, referendums, or coordinated exits have materialized to challenge this framework, while ongoing policy coordination on trade, security, and enlargement continues without disruption. Historical patterns of incremental reform rather than fragmentation further support the current pricing. Even plausible shocks such as severe economic downturns, shifts in national governments, or escalated external pressures would likely trigger negotiations or partial adjustments instead of outright dissolution within the compressed timeline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$178,938終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The entrenched institutional architecture of the EU, anchored in binding treaties and requiring unanimous member-state consent for fundamental changes, underpins trader consensus that dissolution before 2027 remains improbable. No recent legislative votes, referendums, or coordinated exits have materialized to challenge this framework, while ongoing policy coordination on trade, security, and enlargement continues without disruption. Historical patterns of incremental reform rather than fragmentation further support the current pricing. Even plausible shocks such as severe economic downturns, shifts in national governments, or escalated external pressures would likely trigger negotiations or partial adjustments instead of outright dissolution within the compressed timeline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問