The European Union's institutional architecture, anchored in binding treaties, the single market, and coordinated policies on trade, regulation, and security, creates formidable legal and political barriers to dissolution before 2027. Trader consensus at 99% reflects sustained member-state engagement through recent summits and joint responses to economic pressures and external security issues, with no credible exit mechanisms or reform proposals advancing toward breakup. While an unprecedented crisis—such as simultaneous large-scale conflict involving multiple members or systemic financial collapse—could test cohesion, even those scenarios would likely prompt emergency coordination rather than formal dissolution given the multi-year treaty processes and entrenched interdependence involved.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日EUは2027年までに解散しますか？
EUは2027年までに解散しますか？
はい
1% 確率
$180,387 Vol.
$180,387 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
1% 確率
$180,387 Vol.
$180,387 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The European Union's institutional architecture, anchored in binding treaties, the single market, and coordinated policies on trade, regulation, and security, creates formidable legal and political barriers to dissolution before 2027. Trader consensus at 99% reflects sustained member-state engagement through recent summits and joint responses to economic pressures and external security issues, with no credible exit mechanisms or reform proposals advancing toward breakup. While an unprecedented crisis—such as simultaneous large-scale conflict involving multiple members or systemic financial collapse—could test cohesion, even those scenarios would likely prompt emergency coordination rather than formal dissolution given the multi-year treaty processes and entrenched interdependence involved.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ET
音量
$180,387終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The European Union's institutional architecture, anchored in binding treaties, the single market, and coordinated policies on trade, regulation, and security, creates formidable legal and political barriers to dissolution before 2027. Trader consensus at 99% reflects sustained member-state engagement through recent summits and joint responses to economic pressures and external security issues, with no credible exit mechanisms or reform proposals advancing toward breakup. While an unprecedented crisis—such as simultaneous large-scale conflict involving multiple members or systemic financial collapse—could test cohesion, even those scenarios would likely prompt emergency coordination rather than formal dissolution given the multi-year treaty processes and entrenched interdependence involved.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$180,387終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...The European Union's institutional architecture, anchored in binding treaties, the single market, and coordinated policies on trade, regulation, and security, creates formidable legal and political barriers to dissolution before 2027. Trader consensus at 99% reflects sustained member-state engagement through recent summits and joint responses to economic pressures and external security issues, with no credible exit mechanisms or reform proposals advancing toward breakup. While an unprecedented crisis—such as simultaneous large-scale conflict involving multiple members or systemic financial collapse—could test cohesion, even those scenarios would likely prompt emergency coordination rather than formal dissolution given the multi-year treaty processes and entrenched interdependence involved.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
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