Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 96.4% probability that the European Union will not dissolve before 2027, anchored by the absence of any member state invoking Article 50 exit procedures and deep economic interdependence across 27 nations. Recent electoral setbacks for far-right populist parties in France, Italy, and Slovenia as of March 2026 have tempered Euroskeptic momentum, with no credible referendums, no-confidence votes, or coalition breakdowns threatening institutional continuity. EU bodies proceed with routine actions like extending Bosnia sanctions and phasing out Russian gas imports by 2027. Post-Brexit lessons highlight formidable legal and procedural barriers to disintegration. Scenarios altering this—severe fiscal crises in multiple states, escalated Russia-Ukraine conflict spillover, or synchronized populist surges in 2026-2027 national elections—remain low-probability outliers amid prevailing stability.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日EUは2027年までに解散しますか？
EUは2027年までに解散しますか？
はい
$159,644 Vol.
$159,644 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$159,644 Vol.
$159,644 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 96.4% probability that the European Union will not dissolve before 2027, anchored by the absence of any member state invoking Article 50 exit procedures and deep economic interdependence across 27 nations. Recent electoral setbacks for far-right populist parties in France, Italy, and Slovenia as of March 2026 have tempered Euroskeptic momentum, with no credible referendums, no-confidence votes, or coalition breakdowns threatening institutional continuity. EU bodies proceed with routine actions like extending Bosnia sanctions and phasing out Russian gas imports by 2027. Post-Brexit lessons highlight formidable legal and procedural barriers to disintegration. Scenarios altering this—severe fiscal crises in multiple states, escalated Russia-Ukraine conflict spillover, or synchronized populist surges in 2026-2027 national elections—remain low-probability outliers amid prevailing stability.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ET
音量
$159,644終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 96.4% probability that the European Union will not dissolve before 2027, anchored by the absence of any member state invoking Article 50 exit procedures and deep economic interdependence across 27 nations. Recent electoral setbacks for far-right populist parties in France, Italy, and Slovenia as of March 2026 have tempered Euroskeptic momentum, with no credible referendums, no-confidence votes, or coalition breakdowns threatening institutional continuity. EU bodies proceed with routine actions like extending Bosnia sanctions and phasing out Russian gas imports by 2027. Post-Brexit lessons highlight formidable legal and procedural barriers to disintegration. Scenarios altering this—severe fiscal crises in multiple states, escalated Russia-Ukraine conflict spillover, or synchronized populist surges in 2026-2027 national elections—remain low-probability outliers amid prevailing stability.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$159,644終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 96.4% probability that the European Union will not dissolve before 2027, anchored by the absence of any member state invoking Article 50 exit procedures and deep economic interdependence across 27 nations. Recent electoral setbacks for far-right populist parties in France, Italy, and Slovenia as of March 2026 have tempered Euroskeptic momentum, with no credible referendums, no-confidence votes, or coalition breakdowns threatening institutional continuity. EU bodies proceed with routine actions like extending Bosnia sanctions and phasing out Russian gas imports by 2027. Post-Brexit lessons highlight formidable legal and procedural barriers to disintegration. Scenarios altering this—severe fiscal crises in multiple states, escalated Russia-Ukraine conflict spillover, or synchronized populist surges in 2026-2027 national elections—remain low-probability outliers amid prevailing stability.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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