**Nigel Farage triggered and won a Clacton by-election in August 2026 after resigning in July amid a parliamentary standards probe into an undeclared £5 million gift from a Reform UK donor.** He secured re-election with 63.3% against novelty candidate Count Binface (26.9%) in a contest boycotted by major parties, with the investigation resuming immediately afterward. A further by-election this year would require the standards process to conclude with a suspension recommendation of at least 10 sitting days, followed by a successful recall petition signed by 10% of constituents. These steps involve committee review, potential appeals, and a six-week petition window, making completion before December unlikely given the timeline and lack of expedited developments since mid-August. No other triggers, such as resignation or disqualification, have emerged. Traders therefore assign high probability to no additional Clacton by-election occurring in 2026.