Traders assign a 98.4% implied probability that NATO will not dissolve before 2027 because the alliance maintains institutional continuity through reaffirmed Article 5 commitments and recent summits, including the July 2026 Ankara meeting that produced a unified communique on collective defense and Ukraine support. European allies have accelerated defense spending and procurement while NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has described a shift toward greater European leadership within the existing framework rather than replacement structures. US policy under the current administration continues to emphasize burden-sharing adjustments and troop reviews without initiating formal withdrawal procedures, and congressional constraints further limit rapid exits. Speculation from figures such as former German official Joschka Fischer or Russian statements on dissolution reflects longstanding debates but has not translated into treaty-termination actions by any member state. Late developments that could still shift odds include an unanticipated US exit announcement coupled with allied realignments or a sudden breakdown in transatlantic coordination during an active crisis, though both remain outside the immediate resolution window.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
2% 確率
$123,908 Vol.
$123,908 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
2% 確率
$123,908 Vol.
$123,908 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign a 98.4% implied probability that NATO will not dissolve before 2027 because the alliance maintains institutional continuity through reaffirmed Article 5 commitments and recent summits, including the July 2026 Ankara meeting that produced a unified communique on collective defense and Ukraine support. European allies have accelerated defense spending and procurement while NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has described a shift toward greater European leadership within the existing framework rather than replacement structures. US policy under the current administration continues to emphasize burden-sharing adjustments and troop reviews without initiating formal withdrawal procedures, and congressional constraints further limit rapid exits. Speculation from figures such as former German official Joschka Fischer or Russian statements on dissolution reflects longstanding debates but has not translated into treaty-termination actions by any member state. Late developments that could still shift odds include an unanticipated US exit announcement coupled with allied realignments or a sudden breakdown in transatlantic coordination during an active crisis, though both remain outside the immediate resolution window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Jan 8, 2026, 1:09 PM ET
音量
$123,908終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Jan 8, 2026, 1:09 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign a 98.4% implied probability that NATO will not dissolve before 2027 because the alliance maintains institutional continuity through reaffirmed Article 5 commitments and recent summits, including the July 2026 Ankara meeting that produced a unified communique on collective defense and Ukraine support. European allies have accelerated defense spending and procurement while NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has described a shift toward greater European leadership within the existing framework rather than replacement structures. US policy under the current administration continues to emphasize burden-sharing adjustments and troop reviews without initiating formal withdrawal procedures, and congressional constraints further limit rapid exits. Speculation from figures such as former German official Joschka Fischer or Russian statements on dissolution reflects longstanding debates but has not translated into treaty-termination actions by any member state. Late developments that could still shift odds include an unanticipated US exit announcement coupled with allied realignments or a sudden breakdown in transatlantic coordination during an active crisis, though both remain outside the immediate resolution window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$123,908終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Jan 8, 2026, 1:09 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 98.4% implied probability that NATO will not dissolve before 2027 because the alliance maintains institutional continuity through reaffirmed Article 5 commitments and recent summits, including the July 2026 Ankara meeting that produced a unified communique on collective defense and Ukraine support. European allies have accelerated defense spending and procurement while NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has described a shift toward greater European leadership within the existing framework rather than replacement structures. US policy under the current administration continues to emphasize burden-sharing adjustments and troop reviews without initiating formal withdrawal procedures, and congressional constraints further limit rapid exits. Speculation from figures such as former German official Joschka Fischer or Russian statements on dissolution reflects longstanding debates but has not translated into treaty-termination actions by any member state. Late developments that could still shift odds include an unanticipated US exit announcement coupled with allied realignments or a sudden breakdown in transatlantic coordination during an active crisis, though both remain outside the immediate resolution window.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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