NATO's institutional strength and unified response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine underpin traders' 91.5% implied probability against dissolution before 2027, as the alliance requires unanimous member consent for any breakup—a near-impossible threshold amid existential threats. Recent developments reinforcing this consensus include the July 2024 Washington summit, where leaders recommitted to collective defense, approved new Ukraine aid packages exceeding €40 billion annually, and celebrated Sweden's accession, bringing membership to 32. Defense spending by allies hit record highs, with 23 nations now meeting or exceeding the 2% GDP target. Incoming Secretary General Mark Rutte's October 1 start emphasizes continuity, while U.S. election uncertainties, including potential Trump policies on burden-sharing, have not shifted odds significantly, given historical bipartisan support for the alliance. Late shocks like a major geopolitical rupture could alter trajectories, but current dynamics favor stability.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
$55,493 Vol.
$55,493 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
はい
$55,493 Vol.
$55,493 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.NATO's institutional strength and unified response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine underpin traders' 91.5% implied probability against dissolution before 2027, as the alliance requires unanimous member consent for any breakup—a near-impossible threshold amid existential threats. Recent developments reinforcing this consensus include the July 2024 Washington summit, where leaders recommitted to collective defense, approved new Ukraine aid packages exceeding €40 billion annually, and celebrated Sweden's accession, bringing membership to 32. Defense spending by allies hit record highs, with 23 nations now meeting or exceeding the 2% GDP target. Incoming Secretary General Mark Rutte's October 1 start emphasizes continuity, while U.S. election uncertainties, including potential Trump policies on burden-sharing, have not shifted odds significantly, given historical bipartisan support for the alliance. Late shocks like a major geopolitical rupture could alter trajectories, but current dynamics favor stability.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Jan 8, 2026, 1:09 PM ET
音量
$55,493終了日
Dec 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 8, 2026, 1:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.NATO's institutional strength and unified response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine underpin traders' 91.5% implied probability against dissolution before 2027, as the alliance requires unanimous member consent for any breakup—a near-impossible threshold amid existential threats. Recent developments reinforcing this consensus include the July 2024 Washington summit, where leaders recommitted to collective defense, approved new Ukraine aid packages exceeding €40 billion annually, and celebrated Sweden's accession, bringing membership to 32. Defense spending by allies hit record highs, with 23 nations now meeting or exceeding the 2% GDP target. Incoming Secretary General Mark Rutte's October 1 start emphasizes continuity, while U.S. election uncertainties, including potential Trump policies on burden-sharing, have not shifted odds significantly, given historical bipartisan support for the alliance. Late shocks like a major geopolitical rupture could alter trajectories, but current dynamics favor stability.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$55,493終了日
Dec 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 8, 2026, 1:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NATO's institutional strength and unified response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine underpin traders' 91.5% implied probability against dissolution before 2027, as the alliance requires unanimous member consent for any breakup—a near-impossible threshold amid existential threats. Recent developments reinforcing this consensus include the July 2024 Washington summit, where leaders recommitted to collective defense, approved new Ukraine aid packages exceeding €40 billion annually, and celebrated Sweden's accession, bringing membership to 32. Defense spending by allies hit record highs, with 23 nations now meeting or exceeding the 2% GDP target. Incoming Secretary General Mark Rutte's October 1 start emphasizes continuity, while U.S. election uncertainties, including potential Trump policies on burden-sharing, have not shifted odds significantly, given historical bipartisan support for the alliance. Late shocks like a major geopolitical rupture could alter trajectories, but current dynamics favor stability.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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