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世界·Nato

...までにNATOを離脱する国はありますか？

Market icon
世界·Nato

...までにNATOを離脱する国はありますか？

$419,822 Vol.

Dec 31, 2025
Polymarket

$419,822 Vol.

Polymarket

2026年6月30日

$142,781 Vol.

5%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any member state formally withdraws from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. A country's exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". That country must either withdraw or submit a notice of denunciation to trigger a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source will be official information from the relevant government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any member state formally withdraws from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. A country's exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". That country must either withdraw or submit a notice of denunciation to trigger a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source will be official information from the relevant government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.No NATO member has invoked Article 13 to initiate withdrawal, which requires one year's notice, despite heightened tensions from U.S. President Trump's administration pressuring allies to assume more defense burdens by 2027 or face reduced commitments. Recent drivers include the Pentagon's January 2026 announcement of withdrawing about 200 personnel from NATO structures, partial U.S. troop reductions on Europe's eastern flank, and Trump's mid-March hints at a potential U.S. exit following alliance decisions on issues like Greenland. France debated an exit resolution in January amid U.S. frictions, but probability remains low with no votes advanced. Traders weigh these signals against entrenched geopolitical incentives, including Russia's Ukraine invasion, with NATO foreign ministers' April meeting poised to address burden-sharing amid U.S. skepticism.

No NATO member has invoked Article 13 to initiate withdrawal, which requires one year's notice, despite heightened tensions from U.S. President Trump's administration pressuring allies to assume more defense burdens by 2027 or face reduced commitments. Recent drivers include the Pentagon's January 2026 announcement of withdrawing about 200 personnel from NATO structures, partial U.S. troop reductions on Europe's eastern flank, and Trump's mid-March hints at a potential U.S. exit following alliance decisions on issues like Greenland. France debated an exit resolution in January amid U.S. frictions, but probability remains low with no votes advanced. Traders weigh these signals against entrenched geopolitical incentives, including Russia's Ukraine invasion, with NATO foreign ministers' April meeting poised to address burden-sharing amid U.S. skepticism.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any member state formally withdraws from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. A country's exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". That country must either withdraw or submit a notice of denunciation to trigger a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source will be official information from the relevant government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any member state formally withdraws from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. A country's exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". That country must either withdraw or submit a notice of denunciation to trigger a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source will be official information from the relevant government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.No NATO member has invoked Article 13 to initiate withdrawal, which requires one year's notice, despite heightened tensions from U.S. President Trump's administration pressuring allies to assume more defense burdens by 2027 or face reduced commitments. Recent drivers include the Pentagon's January 2026 announcement of withdrawing about 200 personnel from NATO structures, partial U.S. troop reductions on Europe's eastern flank, and Trump's mid-March hints at a potential U.S. exit following alliance decisions on issues like Greenland. France debated an exit resolution in January amid U.S. frictions, but probability remains low with no votes advanced. Traders weigh these signals against entrenched geopolitical incentives, including Russia's Ukraine invasion, with NATO foreign ministers' April meeting poised to address burden-sharing amid U.S. skepticism.

No NATO member has invoked Article 13 to initiate withdrawal, which requires one year's notice, despite heightened tensions from U.S. President Trump's administration pressuring allies to assume more defense burdens by 2027 or face reduced commitments. Recent drivers include the Pentagon's January 2026 announcement of withdrawing about 200 personnel from NATO structures, partial U.S. troop reductions on Europe's eastern flank, and Trump's mid-March hints at a potential U.S. exit following alliance decisions on issues like Greenland. France debated an exit resolution in January amid U.S. frictions, but probability remains low with no votes advanced. Traders weigh these signals against entrenched geopolitical incentives, including Russia's Ukraine invasion, with NATO foreign ministers' April meeting poised to address burden-sharing amid U.S. skepticism.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日

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「...までにNATOを離脱する国はありますか？」はPolymarket上の2個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「2026年6月30日」で5%、次いで「2025年12月31日」が0%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、5¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に5%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「...までにNATOを離脱する国はありますか？」は$419.8Kの総取引量を生み出しています（Feb 13, 2025のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

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これは非常に拮抗した市場です。「...までにNATOを離脱する国はありますか？」の現在のリーダーは「2026年6月30日」でわずか5%、「2025年12月31日」が0%で僅差です。どの結果も強い多数派を占めていないため、トレーダーはこれを非常に不確実と見ており、独自の取引機会を提供する可能性があります。これらのオッズはリアルタイムで更新されますので、このページをブックマークしてください。

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