OPEC's continued operation through late 2026 stems from active coordination among core members on production quotas, capacity reviews, and 2027 baselines, as evidenced by recent ministerial meetings and reaffirmations of commitment following the UAE's May exit. Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, and others maintain voluntary cuts through year-end while addressing disruptions from regional conflicts, preserving the group's framework for supply management. This institutional continuity and shared economic interest in price stabilization underpin the 96.1% implied probability against dissolution. Realistic shifts could arise from additional major member withdrawals, such as by Iraq, or an unprecedented formal disbandment agreement, though no such developments have materialized.