Strong trader consensus against OPEC dissolution by end-2026, reflected in the 93% market-implied odds for "No," stems primarily from the organization's continued operational resilience following the UAE's May 1 exit amid quota disputes. Remaining members, led by Saudi Arabia, have sustained coordinated production adjustments through June 2026 ministerial meetings and reaffirmed commitments to market stability in official releases, even as they trim 2026 demand-growth forecasts to around 970,000 barrels per day. Geopolitical factors, including Middle East supply constraints, have not triggered further exits or structural collapse. While additional producer departures or major policy shifts could alter dynamics, the current pricing embeds the view that economic incentives for collective output management outweigh breakup risks through year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$29,586 Vol.
$29,586 Vol.
2026/12/31
$29,586 Vol.
$29,586 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Strong trader consensus against OPEC dissolution by end-2026, reflected in the 93% market-implied odds for "No," stems primarily from the organization's continued operational resilience following the UAE's May 1 exit amid quota disputes. Remaining members, led by Saudi Arabia, have sustained coordinated production adjustments through June 2026 ministerial meetings and reaffirmed commitments to market stability in official releases, even as they trim 2026 demand-growth forecasts to around 970,000 barrels per day. Geopolitical factors, including Middle East supply constraints, have not triggered further exits or structural collapse. While additional producer departures or major policy shifts could alter dynamics, the current pricing embeds the view that economic incentives for collective output management outweigh breakup risks through year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ET
音量
$29,586終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Strong trader consensus against OPEC dissolution by end-2026, reflected in the 93% market-implied odds for "No," stems primarily from the organization's continued operational resilience following the UAE's May 1 exit amid quota disputes. Remaining members, led by Saudi Arabia, have sustained coordinated production adjustments through June 2026 ministerial meetings and reaffirmed commitments to market stability in official releases, even as they trim 2026 demand-growth forecasts to around 970,000 barrels per day. Geopolitical factors, including Middle East supply constraints, have not triggered further exits or structural collapse. While additional producer departures or major policy shifts could alter dynamics, the current pricing embeds the view that economic incentives for collective output management outweigh breakup risks through year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$29,586終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Strong trader consensus against OPEC dissolution by end-2026, reflected in the 93% market-implied odds for "No," stems primarily from the organization's continued operational resilience following the UAE's May 1 exit amid quota disputes. Remaining members, led by Saudi Arabia, have sustained coordinated production adjustments through June 2026 ministerial meetings and reaffirmed commitments to market stability in official releases, even as they trim 2026 demand-growth forecasts to around 970,000 barrels per day. Geopolitical factors, including Middle East supply constraints, have not triggered further exits or structural collapse. While additional producer departures or major policy shifts could alter dynamics, the current pricing embeds the view that economic incentives for collective output management outweigh breakup risks through year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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