Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 89.5% implied probability against OPEC dissolution in 2026, reflecting the organization's historical resilience despite the UAE's shock exit effective May 1 after quota disputes and capacity expansion ambitions. Saudi Arabia, wielding dominant spare capacity, anchors the cartel alongside committed producers like Iraq, which reaffirmed no departure plans amid recent April output adjustments for market stability. The Iran war and Strait of Hormuz closure—driving Brent crude above $110/bbl—have shifted focus to supply recovery over fractures, with past exits (Qatar, Angola) failing to trigger breakup. Key catalysts include the May 3 OPEC+ ministerial huddle and June 7 full meeting, where quota revisions could test cohesion but unlikely to prompt full unraveling.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/12/31
新規
新規
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 89.5% implied probability against OPEC dissolution in 2026, reflecting the organization's historical resilience despite the UAE's shock exit effective May 1 after quota disputes and capacity expansion ambitions. Saudi Arabia, wielding dominant spare capacity, anchors the cartel alongside committed producers like Iraq, which reaffirmed no departure plans amid recent April output adjustments for market stability. The Iran war and Strait of Hormuz closure—driving Brent crude above $110/bbl—have shifted focus to supply recovery over fractures, with past exits (Qatar, Angola) failing to trigger breakup. Key catalysts include the May 3 OPEC+ ministerial huddle and June 7 full meeting, where quota revisions could test cohesion but unlikely to prompt full unraveling.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ET
音量
$7,359終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 89.5% implied probability against OPEC dissolution in 2026, reflecting the organization's historical resilience despite the UAE's shock exit effective May 1 after quota disputes and capacity expansion ambitions. Saudi Arabia, wielding dominant spare capacity, anchors the cartel alongside committed producers like Iraq, which reaffirmed no departure plans amid recent April output adjustments for market stability. The Iran war and Strait of Hormuz closure—driving Brent crude above $110/bbl—have shifted focus to supply recovery over fractures, with past exits (Qatar, Angola) failing to trigger breakup. Key catalysts include the May 3 OPEC+ ministerial huddle and June 7 full meeting, where quota revisions could test cohesion but unlikely to prompt full unraveling.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$7,359終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 89.5% implied probability against OPEC dissolution in 2026, reflecting the organization's historical resilience despite the UAE's shock exit effective May 1 after quota disputes and capacity expansion ambitions. Saudi Arabia, wielding dominant spare capacity, anchors the cartel alongside committed producers like Iraq, which reaffirmed no departure plans amid recent April output adjustments for market stability. The Iran war and Strait of Hormuz closure—driving Brent crude above $110/bbl—have shifted focus to supply recovery over fractures, with past exits (Qatar, Angola) failing to trigger breakup. Key catalysts include the May 3 OPEC+ ministerial huddle and June 7 full meeting, where quota revisions could test cohesion but unlikely to prompt full unraveling.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問