OPEC continues to operate as an active coordinating body in August 2026, with remaining members including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, and others holding regular ministerial meetings, adjusting production quotas, and issuing updated global demand forecasts. The UAE's May 1 exit from both OPEC and OPEC+ represented the most significant recent membership change, reducing the group's output share and coordination capacity amid regional tensions, yet it triggered no further withdrawals or formal dissolution processes. Traders assign a 95.5% implied probability to survival through year-end because the organization has demonstrated resilience through prior shocks, maintains institutional structures for voluntary supply management, and faces no evident consensus among core producers to disband. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include additional major producer exits, sustained oversupply driving sharper price declines, or escalated geopolitical events disrupting key members' alignment, though any such developments would need to overcome entrenched economic incentives for continued dialogue.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
5% 確率
$32,435 Vol.
$32,435 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
5% 確率
$32,435 Vol.
$32,435 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC continues to operate as an active coordinating body in August 2026, with remaining members including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, and others holding regular ministerial meetings, adjusting production quotas, and issuing updated global demand forecasts. The UAE's May 1 exit from both OPEC and OPEC+ represented the most significant recent membership change, reducing the group's output share and coordination capacity amid regional tensions, yet it triggered no further withdrawals or formal dissolution processes. Traders assign a 95.5% implied probability to survival through year-end because the organization has demonstrated resilience through prior shocks, maintains institutional structures for voluntary supply management, and faces no evident consensus among core producers to disband. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include additional major producer exits, sustained oversupply driving sharper price declines, or escalated geopolitical events disrupting key members' alignment, though any such developments would need to overcome entrenched economic incentives for continued dialogue.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ET
音量
$32,435終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC continues to operate as an active coordinating body in August 2026, with remaining members including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, and others holding regular ministerial meetings, adjusting production quotas, and issuing updated global demand forecasts. The UAE's May 1 exit from both OPEC and OPEC+ represented the most significant recent membership change, reducing the group's output share and coordination capacity amid regional tensions, yet it triggered no further withdrawals or formal dissolution processes. Traders assign a 95.5% implied probability to survival through year-end because the organization has demonstrated resilience through prior shocks, maintains institutional structures for voluntary supply management, and faces no evident consensus among core producers to disband. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include additional major producer exits, sustained oversupply driving sharper price declines, or escalated geopolitical events disrupting key members' alignment, though any such developments would need to overcome entrenched economic incentives for continued dialogue.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$32,435終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...OPEC continues to operate as an active coordinating body in August 2026, with remaining members including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, and others holding regular ministerial meetings, adjusting production quotas, and issuing updated global demand forecasts. The UAE's May 1 exit from both OPEC and OPEC+ represented the most significant recent membership change, reducing the group's output share and coordination capacity amid regional tensions, yet it triggered no further withdrawals or formal dissolution processes. Traders assign a 95.5% implied probability to survival through year-end because the organization has demonstrated resilience through prior shocks, maintains institutional structures for voluntary supply management, and faces no evident consensus among core producers to disband. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include additional major producer exits, sustained oversupply driving sharper price declines, or escalated geopolitical events disrupting key members' alignment, though any such developments would need to overcome entrenched economic incentives for continued dialogue.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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