Recent OPEC+ production adjustments and reaffirmation of market-stability commitments by core members, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, have reinforced trader consensus around the 92% implied probability that the organization will not dissolve in 2026. Despite the United Arab Emirates’ exit effective May 1, which briefly fueled speculation of fragmentation amid the Iran-related supply disruptions, the remaining 11-member group has maintained scheduled monthly meetings, output quota revisions, and forward guidance through at least mid-2026. Historical precedent of resilience following prior departures supports this pricing, though further coordinated exits or a breakdown in quota compliance could introduce volatility and test the cartel’s viability before year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$23,766 Vol.
$23,766 Vol.
2026/12/31
$23,766 Vol.
$23,766 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Recent OPEC+ production adjustments and reaffirmation of market-stability commitments by core members, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, have reinforced trader consensus around the 92% implied probability that the organization will not dissolve in 2026. Despite the United Arab Emirates’ exit effective May 1, which briefly fueled speculation of fragmentation amid the Iran-related supply disruptions, the remaining 11-member group has maintained scheduled monthly meetings, output quota revisions, and forward guidance through at least mid-2026. Historical precedent of resilience following prior departures supports this pricing, though further coordinated exits or a breakdown in quota compliance could introduce volatility and test the cartel’s viability before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ET
音量
$23,766終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Recent OPEC+ production adjustments and reaffirmation of market-stability commitments by core members, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, have reinforced trader consensus around the 92% implied probability that the organization will not dissolve in 2026. Despite the United Arab Emirates’ exit effective May 1, which briefly fueled speculation of fragmentation amid the Iran-related supply disruptions, the remaining 11-member group has maintained scheduled monthly meetings, output quota revisions, and forward guidance through at least mid-2026. Historical precedent of resilience following prior departures supports this pricing, though further coordinated exits or a breakdown in quota compliance could introduce volatility and test the cartel’s viability before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$23,766終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent OPEC+ production adjustments and reaffirmation of market-stability commitments by core members, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, have reinforced trader consensus around the 92% implied probability that the organization will not dissolve in 2026. Despite the United Arab Emirates’ exit effective May 1, which briefly fueled speculation of fragmentation amid the Iran-related supply disruptions, the remaining 11-member group has maintained scheduled monthly meetings, output quota revisions, and forward guidance through at least mid-2026. Historical precedent of resilience following prior departures supports this pricing, though further coordinated exits or a breakdown in quota compliance could introduce volatility and test the cartel’s viability before year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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