Trader consensus favors CDU with 54.5% implied probability of securing the most votes in Berlin's September 20, 2026 state election, reflecting consistent Sonntagsfrage leads of 22-23% in late February and early March polls from INSA and Civey, well ahead of a fragmented field where Linke (around 16%), AfD (16-17%), SPD, and Grüne hover at 15-16%. The incumbent CDU-SPD coalition lacks a projected parliamentary majority amid low Senat approval, boosting CDU's path to plurality while exposing opposition disunity. National momentum from Chancellor Merz's recent Rhineland-Palatinate victory and stable Berlin trends since January Infratest dimap surveys underpin positioning, though coalition negotiations or campaign surprises could narrow gaps before the vote.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日CDU 55%
リンク 14%
AfD 12.2%
グリューネ 8.8%
$1,394,085 Vol.
$1,394,085 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
CDU
55%
リンク
14%
AfD
12%
グリューネ
9%
SPD
9%
BSW
1%
FDP
<1%
FW
<1%
CDU 55%
リンク 14%
AfD 12.2%
グリューネ 8.8%
$1,394,085 Vol.
$1,394,085 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
CDU
$8,493 Vol.
55%
リンク
$7,843 Vol.
14%
AfD
$1,048,771 Vol.
12%
グリューネ
$22,205 Vol.
9%
SPD
$280,685 Vol.
9%
BSW
$14,521 Vol.
1%
FDP
$7,824 Vol.
<1%
FW
$4,577 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Trader consensus favors CDU with 54.5% implied probability of securing the most votes in Berlin's September 20, 2026 state election, reflecting consistent Sonntagsfrage leads of 22-23% in late February and early March polls from INSA and Civey, well ahead of a fragmented field where Linke (around 16%), AfD (16-17%), SPD, and Grüne hover at 15-16%. The incumbent CDU-SPD coalition lacks a projected parliamentary majority amid low Senat approval, boosting CDU's path to plurality while exposing opposition disunity. National momentum from Chancellor Merz's recent Rhineland-Palatinate victory and stable Berlin trends since January Infratest dimap surveys underpin positioning, though coalition negotiations or campaign surprises could narrow gaps before the vote.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
マーケット開始日： Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ET
音量
$1,394,085終了日
Sep 20, 2026マーケット開始日
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Trader consensus favors CDU with 54.5% implied probability of securing the most votes in Berlin's September 20, 2026 state election, reflecting consistent Sonntagsfrage leads of 22-23% in late February and early March polls from INSA and Civey, well ahead of a fragmented field where Linke (around 16%), AfD (16-17%), SPD, and Grüne hover at 15-16%. The incumbent CDU-SPD coalition lacks a projected parliamentary majority amid low Senat approval, boosting CDU's path to plurality while exposing opposition disunity. National momentum from Chancellor Merz's recent Rhineland-Palatinate victory and stable Berlin trends since January Infratest dimap surveys underpin positioning, though coalition negotiations or campaign surprises could narrow gaps before the vote.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
音量
$1,394,085終了日
Sep 20, 2026マーケット開始日
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors CDU with 54.5% implied probability of securing the most votes in Berlin's September 20, 2026 state election, reflecting consistent Sonntagsfrage leads of 22-23% in late February and early March polls from INSA and Civey, well ahead of a fragmented field where Linke (around 16%), AfD (16-17%), SPD, and Grüne hover at 15-16%. The incumbent CDU-SPD coalition lacks a projected parliamentary majority amid low Senat approval, boosting CDU's path to plurality while exposing opposition disunity. National momentum from Chancellor Merz's recent Rhineland-Palatinate victory and stable Berlin trends since January Infratest dimap surveys underpin positioning, though coalition negotiations or campaign surprises could narrow gaps before the vote.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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