Recent polls, including INSA's late February survey and Civey tracking into early March, show the CDU holding a steady 22-23% lead in voting intentions for Berlin's September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election, well ahead of AfD at 16-17%, Linke and SPD around 15-16%, and Grüne at 15%. This fragmented opposition field amid persistent criticism of the incumbent SPD-Grüne-Linke coalition's handling of housing shortages, public transport failures, and rising crime has solidified trader consensus, pricing CDU victory at 50.5% implied probability for most seats under proportional representation. AfD's second-place polling supports its 12.6% odds, while smaller parties like BSW, FDP, and FW trail far behind with minimal paths to overtake. No major shifts in the past week, but upcoming campaign events could influence dynamics.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日CDU 51%
AfD 12.5%
グリューネ 11.8%
リンク 11%
$2,007,485 Vol.
$2,007,485 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
CDU
51%
AfD
13%
グリューネ
12%
リンク
11%
SPD
9%
BSW
1%
FDP
<1%
FW
<1%
CDU 51%
AfD 12.5%
グリューネ 11.8%
リンク 11%
$2,007,485 Vol.
$2,007,485 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
CDU
$9,016 Vol.
51%
AfD
$1,653,463 Vol.
13%
グリューネ
$23,086 Vol.
12%
リンク
$8,237 Vol.
11%
SPD
$284,944 Vol.
9%
BSW
$15,579 Vol.
1%
FDP
$8,318 Vol.
<1%
FW
$5,121 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Recent polls, including INSA's late February survey and Civey tracking into early March, show the CDU holding a steady 22-23% lead in voting intentions for Berlin's September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election, well ahead of AfD at 16-17%, Linke and SPD around 15-16%, and Grüne at 15%. This fragmented opposition field amid persistent criticism of the incumbent SPD-Grüne-Linke coalition's handling of housing shortages, public transport failures, and rising crime has solidified trader consensus, pricing CDU victory at 50.5% implied probability for most seats under proportional representation. AfD's second-place polling supports its 12.6% odds, while smaller parties like BSW, FDP, and FW trail far behind with minimal paths to overtake. No major shifts in the past week, but upcoming campaign events could influence dynamics.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
マーケット開始日： Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ET
音量
$2,007,485終了日
Sep 20, 2026マーケット開始日
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Recent polls, including INSA's late February survey and Civey tracking into early March, show the CDU holding a steady 22-23% lead in voting intentions for Berlin's September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election, well ahead of AfD at 16-17%, Linke and SPD around 15-16%, and Grüne at 15%. This fragmented opposition field amid persistent criticism of the incumbent SPD-Grüne-Linke coalition's handling of housing shortages, public transport failures, and rising crime has solidified trader consensus, pricing CDU victory at 50.5% implied probability for most seats under proportional representation. AfD's second-place polling supports its 12.6% odds, while smaller parties like BSW, FDP, and FW trail far behind with minimal paths to overtake. No major shifts in the past week, but upcoming campaign events could influence dynamics.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
音量
$2,007,485終了日
Sep 20, 2026マーケット開始日
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polls, including INSA's late February survey and Civey tracking into early March, show the CDU holding a steady 22-23% lead in voting intentions for Berlin's September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election, well ahead of AfD at 16-17%, Linke and SPD around 15-16%, and Grüne at 15%. This fragmented opposition field amid persistent criticism of the incumbent SPD-Grüne-Linke coalition's handling of housing shortages, public transport failures, and rising crime has solidified trader consensus, pricing CDU victory at 50.5% implied probability for most seats under proportional representation. AfD's second-place polling supports its 12.6% odds, while smaller parties like BSW, FDP, and FW trail far behind with minimal paths to overtake. No major shifts in the past week, but upcoming campaign events could influence dynamics.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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