Preliminary Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis data shows March 2026 global surface air temperature anomaly at around 1.26–1.27°C above the 1991–2020 baseline—below the top-three benchmarks set by El Niño-fueled Marches in 2024 (warmest on record), 2023, and 2016—driving trader consensus to 99.2% implied probability for a fourth-or-lower ranking. La Niña conditions, confirmed by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, suppressed Pacific convection and global averages despite regional U.S. Southwest heat records. This reflects inherent ENSO variability overlaying long-term warming trends. Final bulletins from Copernicus (expected ~April 10) and NOAA could prompt minor revisions, but significant upward shifts are unlikely given reanalysis stability, barring anomalous data corrections.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日4番目またはそれ以下 99.2%
3番目に暑い <1%
観測史上1位の暑さ <1%
観測史上2番目の暑さ <1%
$293,708 Vol.
$293,708 Vol.
2026/04/10
観測史上1位の暑さ
<1%
観測史上2番目の暑さ
<1%
3番目に暑い
<1%
4番目またはそれ以下
99%
4番目またはそれ以下 99.2%
3番目に暑い <1%
観測史上1位の暑さ <1%
観測史上2番目の暑さ <1%
$293,708 Vol.
$293,708 Vol.
2026/04/10
観測史上1位の暑さ
$109,191 Vol.
<1%
観測史上2番目の暑さ
$54,722 Vol.
<1%
3番目に暑い
$96,705 Vol.
<1%
4番目またはそれ以下
$33,090 Vol.
99%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 versus the data points available for all other Marches on record.
Note: If March 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for March 2026 is provided by NASA by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Preliminary Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis data shows March 2026 global surface air temperature anomaly at around 1.26–1.27°C above the 1991–2020 baseline—below the top-three benchmarks set by El Niño-fueled Marches in 2024 (warmest on record), 2023, and 2016—driving trader consensus to 99.2% implied probability for a fourth-or-lower ranking. La Niña conditions, confirmed by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, suppressed Pacific convection and global averages despite regional U.S. Southwest heat records. This reflects inherent ENSO variability overlaying long-term warming trends. Final bulletins from Copernicus (expected ~April 10) and NOAA could prompt minor revisions, but significant upward shifts are unlikely given reanalysis stability, barring anomalous data corrections.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 versus the data points available for all other Marches on record.
Note: If March 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for March 2026 is provided by NASA by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If March 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for March 2026 is provided by NASA by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
マーケット開始日： Feb 26, 2026, 5:45 PM ET
音量
$293,708終了日
2026/04/10マーケット開始日
Feb 26, 2026, 5:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 versus the data points available for all other Marches on record.
Note: If March 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for March 2026 is provided by NASA by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Preliminary Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis data shows March 2026 global surface air temperature anomaly at around 1.26–1.27°C above the 1991–2020 baseline—below the top-three benchmarks set by El Niño-fueled Marches in 2024 (warmest on record), 2023, and 2016—driving trader consensus to 99.2% implied probability for a fourth-or-lower ranking. La Niña conditions, confirmed by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, suppressed Pacific convection and global averages despite regional U.S. Southwest heat records. This reflects inherent ENSO variability overlaying long-term warming trends. Final bulletins from Copernicus (expected ~April 10) and NOAA could prompt minor revisions, but significant upward shifts are unlikely given reanalysis stability, barring anomalous data corrections.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 versus the data points available for all other Marches on record.
Note: If March 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for March 2026 is provided by NASA by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If March 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for March 2026 is provided by NASA by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
音量
$293,708終了日
2026/04/10マーケット開始日
Feb 26, 2026, 5:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Preliminary Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis data shows March 2026 global surface air temperature anomaly at around 1.26–1.27°C above the 1991–2020 baseline—below the top-three benchmarks set by El Niño-fueled Marches in 2024 (warmest on record), 2023, and 2016—driving trader consensus to 99.2% implied probability for a fourth-or-lower ranking. La Niña conditions, confirmed by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, suppressed Pacific convection and global averages despite regional U.S. Southwest heat records. This reflects inherent ENSO variability overlaying long-term warming trends. Final bulletins from Copernicus (expected ~April 10) and NOAA could prompt minor revisions, but significant upward shifts are unlikely given reanalysis stability, barring anomalous data corrections.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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