Preliminary data from multiple datasets, including surface temperature records showing a 1.48°C anomaly above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline, confirm March 2026 as the fourth-warmest March globally, trailing El Niño-boosted records from 2024, 2016, and others. Satellite measurements like UAH's +0.38°C lower troposphere anomaly further support this subdued ranking amid neutral-to-La Niña ENSO conditions that suppressed widespread heat after 2023-2024 peaks. Trader consensus at 98.5% for fourth or lower reflects this convergence, with U.S. regional extremes failing to drive global metrics. Revisions in forthcoming NOAA or Copernicus bulletins—potentially from marine heat adjustments or dataset divergences—represent the slim scenarios for a top-three upset before mid-April resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日4番目またはそれ以下 98.8%
3番目に暑い <1%
観測史上1位の暑さ <1%
観測史上2番目の暑さ <1%
$309,596 Vol.
$309,596 Vol.
2026/04/10
観測史上1位の暑さ
<1%
観測史上2番目の暑さ
<1%
3番目に暑い
1%
4番目またはそれ以下
99%
4番目またはそれ以下 98.8%
3番目に暑い <1%
観測史上1位の暑さ <1%
観測史上2番目の暑さ <1%
$309,596 Vol.
$309,596 Vol.
2026/04/10
観測史上1位の暑さ
$114,625 Vol.
<1%
観測史上2番目の暑さ
$59,373 Vol.
<1%
3番目に暑い
$100,673 Vol.
1%
4番目またはそれ以下
$34,925 Vol.
99%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 versus the data points available for all other Marches on record.
Note: If March 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for March 2026 is provided by NASA by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Preliminary data from multiple datasets, including surface temperature records showing a 1.48°C anomaly above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline, confirm March 2026 as the fourth-warmest March globally, trailing El Niño-boosted records from 2024, 2016, and others. Satellite measurements like UAH's +0.38°C lower troposphere anomaly further support this subdued ranking amid neutral-to-La Niña ENSO conditions that suppressed widespread heat after 2023-2024 peaks. Trader consensus at 98.5% for fourth or lower reflects this convergence, with U.S. regional extremes failing to drive global metrics. Revisions in forthcoming NOAA or Copernicus bulletins—potentially from marine heat adjustments or dataset divergences—represent the slim scenarios for a top-three upset before mid-April resolution.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 versus the data points available for all other Marches on record.
Note: If March 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for March 2026 is provided by NASA by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If March 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for March 2026 is provided by NASA by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
マーケット開始日： Feb 26, 2026, 5:45 PM ET
音量
$309,596終了日
2026/04/10マーケット開始日
Feb 26, 2026, 5:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 versus the data points available for all other Marches on record.
Note: If March 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for March 2026 is provided by NASA by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Preliminary data from multiple datasets, including surface temperature records showing a 1.48°C anomaly above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline, confirm March 2026 as the fourth-warmest March globally, trailing El Niño-boosted records from 2024, 2016, and others. Satellite measurements like UAH's +0.38°C lower troposphere anomaly further support this subdued ranking amid neutral-to-La Niña ENSO conditions that suppressed widespread heat after 2023-2024 peaks. Trader consensus at 98.5% for fourth or lower reflects this convergence, with U.S. regional extremes failing to drive global metrics. Revisions in forthcoming NOAA or Copernicus bulletins—potentially from marine heat adjustments or dataset divergences—represent the slim scenarios for a top-three upset before mid-April resolution.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 versus the data points available for all other Marches on record.
Note: If March 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for March 2026 is provided by NASA by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If March 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for March 2026 is provided by NASA by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
音量
$309,596終了日
2026/04/10マーケット開始日
Feb 26, 2026, 5:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Preliminary data from multiple datasets, including surface temperature records showing a 1.48°C anomaly above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline, confirm March 2026 as the fourth-warmest March globally, trailing El Niño-boosted records from 2024, 2016, and others. Satellite measurements like UAH's +0.38°C lower troposphere anomaly further support this subdued ranking amid neutral-to-La Niña ENSO conditions that suppressed widespread heat after 2023-2024 peaks. Trader consensus at 98.5% for fourth or lower reflects this convergence, with U.S. regional extremes failing to drive global metrics. Revisions in forthcoming NOAA or Copernicus bulletins—potentially from marine heat adjustments or dataset divergences—represent the slim scenarios for a top-three upset before mid-April resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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