Preliminary analyses from Copernicus ERA5 and NOAA global land-ocean temperature datasets place March 2026's surface air temperature anomaly below 1.3°C above the 1991-2020 baseline—insufficient to surpass the top three warmest Marches on record (likely 2024, 2023, and 2025, driven by prior El Niño peaks). La Niña conditions, with cooler equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures, suppressed global averages despite record March heat across the U.S. Southwest and Western North America. Trader consensus at 99.1% for fourth or lower reflects this skin-in-the-game alignment with authoritative preliminary data. Final NOAA rankings, expected soon, could shift marginally via data adjustments, but exceeding top-three thresholds would require improbable upward revisions.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日4番目またはそれ以下 99.1%
観測史上1位の暑さ <1%
観測史上2番目の暑さ <1%
3番目に暑い <1%
$279,736 Vol.
$279,736 Vol.
2026/04/10
観測史上1位の暑さ
<1%
観測史上2番目の暑さ
<1%
3番目に暑い
<1%
4番目またはそれ以下
99%
4番目またはそれ以下 99.1%
観測史上1位の暑さ <1%
観測史上2番目の暑さ <1%
3番目に暑い <1%
$279,736 Vol.
$279,736 Vol.
2026/04/10
観測史上1位の暑さ
$98,474 Vol.
<1%
観測史上2番目の暑さ
$54,289 Vol.
<1%
3番目に暑い
$96,216 Vol.
<1%
4番目またはそれ以下
$30,756 Vol.
99%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 versus the data points available for all other Marches on record.
Note: If March 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for March 2026 is provided by NASA by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Preliminary analyses from Copernicus ERA5 and NOAA global land-ocean temperature datasets place March 2026's surface air temperature anomaly below 1.3°C above the 1991-2020 baseline—insufficient to surpass the top three warmest Marches on record (likely 2024, 2023, and 2025, driven by prior El Niño peaks). La Niña conditions, with cooler equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures, suppressed global averages despite record March heat across the U.S. Southwest and Western North America. Trader consensus at 99.1% for fourth or lower reflects this skin-in-the-game alignment with authoritative preliminary data. Final NOAA rankings, expected soon, could shift marginally via data adjustments, but exceeding top-three thresholds would require improbable upward revisions.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 versus the data points available for all other Marches on record.
Note: If March 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for March 2026 is provided by NASA by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If March 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for March 2026 is provided by NASA by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
マーケット開始日： Feb 26, 2026, 5:45 PM ET
音量
$279,736終了日
2026/04/10マーケット開始日
Feb 26, 2026, 5:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 versus the data points available for all other Marches on record.
Note: If March 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for March 2026 is provided by NASA by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Preliminary analyses from Copernicus ERA5 and NOAA global land-ocean temperature datasets place March 2026's surface air temperature anomaly below 1.3°C above the 1991-2020 baseline—insufficient to surpass the top three warmest Marches on record (likely 2024, 2023, and 2025, driven by prior El Niño peaks). La Niña conditions, with cooler equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures, suppressed global averages despite record March heat across the U.S. Southwest and Western North America. Trader consensus at 99.1% for fourth or lower reflects this skin-in-the-game alignment with authoritative preliminary data. Final NOAA rankings, expected soon, could shift marginally via data adjustments, but exceeding top-three thresholds would require improbable upward revisions.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 versus the data points available for all other Marches on record.
Note: If March 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for March 2026 is provided by NASA by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If March 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for March 2026 is provided by NASA by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
音量
$279,736終了日
2026/04/10マーケット開始日
Feb 26, 2026, 5:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Preliminary analyses from Copernicus ERA5 and NOAA global land-ocean temperature datasets place March 2026's surface air temperature anomaly below 1.3°C above the 1991-2020 baseline—insufficient to surpass the top three warmest Marches on record (likely 2024, 2023, and 2025, driven by prior El Niño peaks). La Niña conditions, with cooler equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures, suppressed global averages despite record March heat across the U.S. Southwest and Western North America. Trader consensus at 99.1% for fourth or lower reflects this skin-in-the-game alignment with authoritative preliminary data. Final NOAA rankings, expected soon, could shift marginally via data adjustments, but exceeding top-three thresholds would require improbable upward revisions.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問