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Model
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Approval
First 100 Days
Kamala Harris 538 odds >55% on Friday?
$107k Vol.
15
No
Kamala positive favorability by Friday?
$79.6k Vol.
62
Donald Trump 538 odds >55% on Friday?
$10.8k Vol.
Trump vs. Harris polling margin Friday?
$1m Vol.
32
Harris by 1.5-1.9
Kamala flips Trump on Silver's Bulletin by Sept 6?
$282k Vol.
51
Trump positive favorability on Day 100?
$328k Vol.
95
Favorite to win on Polymarket day after debate?
$5m Vol.
402
Trump Silver Bulletin odds >60% Friday?
$151k Vol.
2
Who will 538 predict to win the election?
$475k Vol.
13
Harris
Who will lead on Silver Bulletin on Friday?
$177k Vol.
27
Who will gain more in polls after the debate?
$176k Vol.
17
Who will lead on 538 on Friday?
$92.3k Vol.
6
Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Nov 4?
$449k Vol.
81
Trump by 0.1-0.4
$70.6k Vol.
10
Trump Silver Bulletin odds >50% on Friday?
$207k Vol.
7
Who will win young men?
59
Donald Trump Silver Bulletin odds >55% on Friday?
$27.8k Vol.
Closest state in the Presidential election?
$94m Vol.
53
Wisconsin
$4m Vol.
26
Harris by 2-2.4
Will Nate Silver correctly call the Presidential Election?
$273k Vol.
18
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