Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 56.5% implied probability against President Trump reducing the federal budget deficit before 2027, driven by the Congressional Budget Office's February 2026 outlook projecting a $1.9 trillion FY2026 shortfall—up slightly from prior baselines amid tax cut extensions offsetting tariff revenues. First-five-months data through February revealed a $1.0 trillion deficit, down 12% year-over-year on higher income taxes and duties, yet net interest costs are surging toward $1 trillion annually as national debt crossed $39 trillion this month. Trump administration's optimistic CEA projections contrast CBO baselines, with spending on military and entitlements sustaining deficits near 6% of GDP; full FY2026 results and spring budget negotiations loom as pivotal catalysts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourOui
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
Oui
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 56.5% implied probability against President Trump reducing the federal budget deficit before 2027, driven by the Congressional Budget Office's February 2026 outlook projecting a $1.9 trillion FY2026 shortfall—up slightly from prior baselines amid tax cut extensions offsetting tariff revenues. First-five-months data through February revealed a $1.0 trillion deficit, down 12% year-over-year on higher income taxes and duties, yet net interest costs are surging toward $1 trillion annually as national debt crossed $39 trillion this month. Trump administration's optimistic CEA projections contrast CBO baselines, with spending on military and entitlements sustaining deficits near 6% of GDP; full FY2026 results and spring budget negotiations loom as pivotal catalysts.
The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
Marché ouvert : Nov 5, 2025, 2:13 PM ET
Volume
$0Date de fin
Dec 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 2:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 56.5% implied probability against President Trump reducing the federal budget deficit before 2027, driven by the Congressional Budget Office's February 2026 outlook projecting a $1.9 trillion FY2026 shortfall—up slightly from prior baselines amid tax cut extensions offsetting tariff revenues. First-five-months data through February revealed a $1.0 trillion deficit, down 12% year-over-year on higher income taxes and duties, yet net interest costs are surging toward $1 trillion annually as national debt crossed $39 trillion this month. Trump administration's optimistic CEA projections contrast CBO baselines, with spending on military and entitlements sustaining deficits near 6% of GDP; full FY2026 results and spring budget negotiations loom as pivotal catalysts.
The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
Volume
$0Date de fin
Dec 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 2:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 56.5% implied probability against President Trump reducing the federal budget deficit before 2027, driven by the Congressional Budget Office's February 2026 outlook projecting a $1.9 trillion FY2026 shortfall—up slightly from prior baselines amid tax cut extensions offsetting tariff revenues. First-five-months data through February revealed a $1.0 trillion deficit, down 12% year-over-year on higher income taxes and duties, yet net interest costs are surging toward $1 trillion annually as national debt crossed $39 trillion this month. Trump administration's optimistic CEA projections contrast CBO baselines, with spending on military and entitlements sustaining deficits near 6% of GDP; full FY2026 results and spring budget negotiations loom as pivotal catalysts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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