Norwegian police arrested three brothers of Iraqi origin on March 11 for the March 8 explosion at the US Embassy in Oslo, charging them with terrorist bombing—one admitted placing the device—shifting focus from potential state sponsorship amid US-Iran hostilities. No US government statements have accused Iran of directing the minor-damage incident, despite initial speculation on Middle East conflict links. With suspects in custody and three weeks elapsed without attribution to Tehran, traders price a 98.2% "No" probability, reflecting skin-in-the-game consensus on localized perpetrators. Late-breaking intelligence revealing Iranian backing or diplomatic escalation could still prompt an accusation before market resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourLes États-Unis accuseront-ils l'Iran de l'attaque de l'ambassade d'Oslo ?
Les États-Unis accuseront-ils l'Iran de l'attaque de l'ambassade d'Oslo ?
Oui
$427,573 Vol.
$427,573 Vol.
Oui
$427,573 Vol.
$427,573 Vol.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government explicitly claims Iran is responsible for the attack near the U.S. Embassy in Oslo on March 7, 2026, by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Claims can come from statements by the U.S. government, military, or intelligence services.
Official confirmation requires an on-the-record public statement issued by the U.S. government, through an authorized governmental person or entity, speaking in an official capacity, which expressly states that Iran carried out the attack.
The primary resolution source will be official government statements.
Ambiguous statements which imply responsibility but which do not directly claim it will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government. Norwegian police arrested three brothers of Iraqi origin on March 11 for the March 8 explosion at the US Embassy in Oslo, charging them with terrorist bombing—one admitted placing the device—shifting focus from potential state sponsorship amid US-Iran hostilities. No US government statements have accused Iran of directing the minor-damage incident, despite initial speculation on Middle East conflict links. With suspects in custody and three weeks elapsed without attribution to Tehran, traders price a 98.2% "No" probability, reflecting skin-in-the-game consensus on localized perpetrators. Late-breaking intelligence revealing Iranian backing or diplomatic escalation could still prompt an accusation before market resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government explicitly claims Iran is responsible for the attack near the U.S. Embassy in Oslo on March 7, 2026, by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Claims can come from statements by the U.S. government, military, or intelligence services.
Official confirmation requires an on-the-record public statement issued by the U.S. government, through an authorized governmental person or entity, speaking in an official capacity, which expressly states that Iran carried out the attack.
The primary resolution source will be official government statements.
Ambiguous statements which imply responsibility but which do not directly claim it will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government.
Claims can come from statements by the U.S. government, military, or intelligence services.
Official confirmation requires an on-the-record public statement issued by the U.S. government, through an authorized governmental person or entity, speaking in an official capacity, which expressly states that Iran carried out the attack.
The primary resolution source will be official government statements.
Ambiguous statements which imply responsibility but which do not directly claim it will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government.
Marché ouvert : Mar 7, 2026, 9:38 PM ET
Volume
$427,573Marché ouvert
Mar 7, 2026, 9:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government explicitly claims Iran is responsible for the attack near the U.S. Embassy in Oslo on March 7, 2026, by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Claims can come from statements by the U.S. government, military, or intelligence services.
Official confirmation requires an on-the-record public statement issued by the U.S. government, through an authorized governmental person or entity, speaking in an official capacity, which expressly states that Iran carried out the attack.
The primary resolution source will be official government statements.
Ambiguous statements which imply responsibility but which do not directly claim it will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government. Norwegian police arrested three brothers of Iraqi origin on March 11 for the March 8 explosion at the US Embassy in Oslo, charging them with terrorist bombing—one admitted placing the device—shifting focus from potential state sponsorship amid US-Iran hostilities. No US government statements have accused Iran of directing the minor-damage incident, despite initial speculation on Middle East conflict links. With suspects in custody and three weeks elapsed without attribution to Tehran, traders price a 98.2% "No" probability, reflecting skin-in-the-game consensus on localized perpetrators. Late-breaking intelligence revealing Iranian backing or diplomatic escalation could still prompt an accusation before market resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government explicitly claims Iran is responsible for the attack near the U.S. Embassy in Oslo on March 7, 2026, by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Claims can come from statements by the U.S. government, military, or intelligence services.
Official confirmation requires an on-the-record public statement issued by the U.S. government, through an authorized governmental person or entity, speaking in an official capacity, which expressly states that Iran carried out the attack.
The primary resolution source will be official government statements.
Ambiguous statements which imply responsibility but which do not directly claim it will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government.
Claims can come from statements by the U.S. government, military, or intelligence services.
Official confirmation requires an on-the-record public statement issued by the U.S. government, through an authorized governmental person or entity, speaking in an official capacity, which expressly states that Iran carried out the attack.
The primary resolution source will be official government statements.
Ambiguous statements which imply responsibility but which do not directly claim it will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government.
Volume
$427,573Marché ouvert
Mar 7, 2026, 9:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Norwegian police arrested three brothers of Iraqi origin on March 11 for the March 8 explosion at the US Embassy in Oslo, charging them with terrorist bombing—one admitted placing the device—shifting focus from potential state sponsorship amid US-Iran hostilities. No US government statements have accused Iran of directing the minor-damage incident, despite initial speculation on Middle East conflict links. With suspects in custody and three weeks elapsed without attribution to Tehran, traders price a 98.2% "No" probability, reflecting skin-in-the-game consensus on localized perpetrators. Late-breaking intelligence revealing Iranian backing or diplomatic escalation could still prompt an accusation before market resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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