Norwegian police's March 11 arrest of three Norwegian-Iraqi brothers for the March 8 explosion at the US Embassy in Oslo—causing minor damage but no injuries—has solidified trader consensus at 98.3% against a US accusation of Iranian responsibility. Despite investigators exploring possible foreign state involvement amid the US-Iran war's airstrikes and escalations, the US government has issued no official claims linking Tehran, even as three weeks have passed without new evidence. This local attribution reduces escalation risks, reflecting skin-in-the-game skepticism on diplomatic blame. Realistic shifts could stem from forensic ties to Iranian proxies or a State Department statement, though procedural hurdles in terrorism probes make this unlikely.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourLes États-Unis accuseront-ils l'Iran de l'attaque de l'ambassade d'Oslo ?
Les États-Unis accuseront-ils l'Iran de l'attaque de l'ambassade d'Oslo ?
Oui
$427,891 Vol.
$427,891 Vol.
Oui
$427,891 Vol.
$427,891 Vol.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government explicitly claims Iran is responsible for the attack near the U.S. Embassy in Oslo on March 7, 2026, by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Claims can come from statements by the U.S. government, military, or intelligence services.
Official confirmation requires an on-the-record public statement issued by the U.S. government, through an authorized governmental person or entity, speaking in an official capacity, which expressly states that Iran carried out the attack.
The primary resolution source will be official government statements.
Ambiguous statements which imply responsibility but which do not directly claim it will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government. Norwegian police's March 11 arrest of three Norwegian-Iraqi brothers for the March 8 explosion at the US Embassy in Oslo—causing minor damage but no injuries—has solidified trader consensus at 98.3% against a US accusation of Iranian responsibility. Despite investigators exploring possible foreign state involvement amid the US-Iran war's airstrikes and escalations, the US government has issued no official claims linking Tehran, even as three weeks have passed without new evidence. This local attribution reduces escalation risks, reflecting skin-in-the-game skepticism on diplomatic blame. Realistic shifts could stem from forensic ties to Iranian proxies or a State Department statement, though procedural hurdles in terrorism probes make this unlikely.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government explicitly claims Iran is responsible for the attack near the U.S. Embassy in Oslo on March 7, 2026, by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Claims can come from statements by the U.S. government, military, or intelligence services.
Official confirmation requires an on-the-record public statement issued by the U.S. government, through an authorized governmental person or entity, speaking in an official capacity, which expressly states that Iran carried out the attack.
The primary resolution source will be official government statements.
Ambiguous statements which imply responsibility but which do not directly claim it will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government.
Claims can come from statements by the U.S. government, military, or intelligence services.
Official confirmation requires an on-the-record public statement issued by the U.S. government, through an authorized governmental person or entity, speaking in an official capacity, which expressly states that Iran carried out the attack.
The primary resolution source will be official government statements.
Ambiguous statements which imply responsibility but which do not directly claim it will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government.
Marché ouvert : Mar 7, 2026, 9:38 PM ET
Volume
$427,891Marché ouvert
Mar 7, 2026, 9:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government explicitly claims Iran is responsible for the attack near the U.S. Embassy in Oslo on March 7, 2026, by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Claims can come from statements by the U.S. government, military, or intelligence services.
Official confirmation requires an on-the-record public statement issued by the U.S. government, through an authorized governmental person or entity, speaking in an official capacity, which expressly states that Iran carried out the attack.
The primary resolution source will be official government statements.
Ambiguous statements which imply responsibility but which do not directly claim it will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government. Norwegian police's March 11 arrest of three Norwegian-Iraqi brothers for the March 8 explosion at the US Embassy in Oslo—causing minor damage but no injuries—has solidified trader consensus at 98.3% against a US accusation of Iranian responsibility. Despite investigators exploring possible foreign state involvement amid the US-Iran war's airstrikes and escalations, the US government has issued no official claims linking Tehran, even as three weeks have passed without new evidence. This local attribution reduces escalation risks, reflecting skin-in-the-game skepticism on diplomatic blame. Realistic shifts could stem from forensic ties to Iranian proxies or a State Department statement, though procedural hurdles in terrorism probes make this unlikely.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government explicitly claims Iran is responsible for the attack near the U.S. Embassy in Oslo on March 7, 2026, by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Claims can come from statements by the U.S. government, military, or intelligence services.
Official confirmation requires an on-the-record public statement issued by the U.S. government, through an authorized governmental person or entity, speaking in an official capacity, which expressly states that Iran carried out the attack.
The primary resolution source will be official government statements.
Ambiguous statements which imply responsibility but which do not directly claim it will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government.
Claims can come from statements by the U.S. government, military, or intelligence services.
Official confirmation requires an on-the-record public statement issued by the U.S. government, through an authorized governmental person or entity, speaking in an official capacity, which expressly states that Iran carried out the attack.
The primary resolution source will be official government statements.
Ambiguous statements which imply responsibility but which do not directly claim it will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government.
Volume
$427,891Marché ouvert
Mar 7, 2026, 9:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Norwegian police's March 11 arrest of three Norwegian-Iraqi brothers for the March 8 explosion at the US Embassy in Oslo—causing minor damage but no injuries—has solidified trader consensus at 98.3% against a US accusation of Iranian responsibility. Despite investigators exploring possible foreign state involvement amid the US-Iran war's airstrikes and escalations, the US government has issued no official claims linking Tehran, even as three weeks have passed without new evidence. This local attribution reduces escalation risks, reflecting skin-in-the-game skepticism on diplomatic blame. Realistic shifts could stem from forensic ties to Iranian proxies or a State Department statement, though procedural hurdles in terrorism probes make this unlikely.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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