Over three weeks after the March 8 explosion damaging the US Embassy entrance in Oslo, causing minor damage but no injuries, the US government has issued no accusation against Iran, anchoring trader consensus at 98.3% on "No." Norwegian police arrested three Norwegian brothers of Iraqi origin on terror bombing charges, probing motives amid the US-Iran war—including potential foreign state actor links via criminal networks—but have released no evidence of Tehran sponsorship. This evidentiary shortfall and prolonged State Department silence reflect diplomatic restraint despite broader tensions. Realistic shifts could arise from intelligence breakthroughs tying suspects to IRGC proxies or escalation prompting public attribution before market resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourLes États-Unis accuseront-ils l'Iran de l'attaque de l'ambassade d'Oslo ?
Les États-Unis accuseront-ils l'Iran de l'attaque de l'ambassade d'Oslo ?
Oui
$427,936 Vol.
$427,936 Vol.
Oui
$427,936 Vol.
$427,936 Vol.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government explicitly claims Iran is responsible for the attack near the U.S. Embassy in Oslo on March 7, 2026, by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Claims can come from statements by the U.S. government, military, or intelligence services.
Official confirmation requires an on-the-record public statement issued by the U.S. government, through an authorized governmental person or entity, speaking in an official capacity, which expressly states that Iran carried out the attack.
The primary resolution source will be official government statements.
Ambiguous statements which imply responsibility but which do not directly claim it will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government. Over three weeks after the March 8 explosion damaging the US Embassy entrance in Oslo, causing minor damage but no injuries, the US government has issued no accusation against Iran, anchoring trader consensus at 98.3% on "No." Norwegian police arrested three Norwegian brothers of Iraqi origin on terror bombing charges, probing motives amid the US-Iran war—including potential foreign state actor links via criminal networks—but have released no evidence of Tehran sponsorship. This evidentiary shortfall and prolonged State Department silence reflect diplomatic restraint despite broader tensions. Realistic shifts could arise from intelligence breakthroughs tying suspects to IRGC proxies or escalation prompting public attribution before market resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government explicitly claims Iran is responsible for the attack near the U.S. Embassy in Oslo on March 7, 2026, by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Claims can come from statements by the U.S. government, military, or intelligence services.
Official confirmation requires an on-the-record public statement issued by the U.S. government, through an authorized governmental person or entity, speaking in an official capacity, which expressly states that Iran carried out the attack.
The primary resolution source will be official government statements.
Ambiguous statements which imply responsibility but which do not directly claim it will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government.
Claims can come from statements by the U.S. government, military, or intelligence services.
Official confirmation requires an on-the-record public statement issued by the U.S. government, through an authorized governmental person or entity, speaking in an official capacity, which expressly states that Iran carried out the attack.
The primary resolution source will be official government statements.
Ambiguous statements which imply responsibility but which do not directly claim it will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government.
Marché ouvert : Mar 7, 2026, 9:38 PM ET
Volume
$427,936Marché ouvert
Mar 7, 2026, 9:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government explicitly claims Iran is responsible for the attack near the U.S. Embassy in Oslo on March 7, 2026, by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Claims can come from statements by the U.S. government, military, or intelligence services.
Official confirmation requires an on-the-record public statement issued by the U.S. government, through an authorized governmental person or entity, speaking in an official capacity, which expressly states that Iran carried out the attack.
The primary resolution source will be official government statements.
Ambiguous statements which imply responsibility but which do not directly claim it will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government. Over three weeks after the March 8 explosion damaging the US Embassy entrance in Oslo, causing minor damage but no injuries, the US government has issued no accusation against Iran, anchoring trader consensus at 98.3% on "No." Norwegian police arrested three Norwegian brothers of Iraqi origin on terror bombing charges, probing motives amid the US-Iran war—including potential foreign state actor links via criminal networks—but have released no evidence of Tehran sponsorship. This evidentiary shortfall and prolonged State Department silence reflect diplomatic restraint despite broader tensions. Realistic shifts could arise from intelligence breakthroughs tying suspects to IRGC proxies or escalation prompting public attribution before market resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government explicitly claims Iran is responsible for the attack near the U.S. Embassy in Oslo on March 7, 2026, by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Claims can come from statements by the U.S. government, military, or intelligence services.
Official confirmation requires an on-the-record public statement issued by the U.S. government, through an authorized governmental person or entity, speaking in an official capacity, which expressly states that Iran carried out the attack.
The primary resolution source will be official government statements.
Ambiguous statements which imply responsibility but which do not directly claim it will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government.
Claims can come from statements by the U.S. government, military, or intelligence services.
Official confirmation requires an on-the-record public statement issued by the U.S. government, through an authorized governmental person or entity, speaking in an official capacity, which expressly states that Iran carried out the attack.
The primary resolution source will be official government statements.
Ambiguous statements which imply responsibility but which do not directly claim it will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government.
Volume
$427,936Marché ouvert
Mar 7, 2026, 9:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Over three weeks after the March 8 explosion damaging the US Embassy entrance in Oslo, causing minor damage but no injuries, the US government has issued no accusation against Iran, anchoring trader consensus at 98.3% on "No." Norwegian police arrested three Norwegian brothers of Iraqi origin on terror bombing charges, probing motives amid the US-Iran war—including potential foreign state actor links via criminal networks—but have released no evidence of Tehran sponsorship. This evidentiary shortfall and prolonged State Department silence reflect diplomatic restraint despite broader tensions. Realistic shifts could arise from intelligence breakthroughs tying suspects to IRGC proxies or escalation prompting public attribution before market resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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