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Politique·Trump

Le GOP utilisera-t-il « l'option nucléaire » pour briser le flibustier d'ici... ?

Market icon
Politique·Trump

Le GOP utilisera-t-il « l'option nucléaire » pour briser le flibustier d'ici... ?

$550,758 Vol.

Mar 31, 2026
Polymarket

$550,758 Vol.

Polymarket

31 mars 2026

$30,604 Vol.

1%

31 décembre 2026

$4,180 Vol.

51%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a motion to invoke cloture and end debate on any part of the legislative process, with such a cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". Confirmations are considered part of the Senate’s “advice and consent” function, not part of the Senate’s “legislative process,” and will therefore not count towards this market's resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a motion to invoke cloture and end debate on any part of the legislative process, with such a cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". Confirmations are considered part of the Senate’s “advice and consent” function, not part of the Senate’s “legislative process,” and will therefore not count towards this market's resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a motion to invoke cloture and end debate on any part of the legislative process, with such a cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". Confirmations are considered part of the Senate’s “advice and consent” function, not part of the Senate’s “legislative process,” and will therefore not count towards this market's resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a motion to invoke cloture and end debate on any part of the legislative process, with such a cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". Confirmations are considered part of the Senate’s “advice and consent” function, not part of the Senate’s “legislative process,” and will therefore not count towards this market's resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government.Republicans hold a 53-47 Senate majority following the 2024 elections, positioning them to potentially invoke the nuclear option—a simple-majority rules change to eliminate or limit the filibuster—with support from Vice President JD Vance's tiebreaker if needed. Incoming Majority Leader John Thune, elected unopposed on November 13, 2024, has repeatedly affirmed commitment to preserving the filibuster as a tool against Democrats, tempering expectations despite President-elect Trump's calls for swift confirmation of nominees and spending cuts. Moderates like Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski have voiced opposition to filibuster abolition, highlighting intraparty divisions. Traders watch January 3, 2025, Senate organization resolutions for any procedural shifts, alongside early Trump administration priorities like border security and judicial nominations that could test cloture votes. Historical precedents include Democrats' 2013 use for lower-court nominees and Republicans' 2017 expansion to Supreme Court justices, but current trader consensus reflects caution amid reconciliation bill usage as a filibuster workaround.

Republicans hold a 53-47 Senate majority following the 2024 elections, positioning them to potentially invoke the nuclear option—a simple-majority rules change to eliminate or limit the filibuster—with support from Vice President JD Vance's tiebreaker if needed. Incoming Majority Leader John Thune, elected unopposed on November 13, 2024, has repeatedly affirmed commitment to preserving the filibuster as a tool against Democrats, tempering expectations despite President-elect Trump's calls for swift confirmation of nominees and spending cuts. Moderates like Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski have voiced opposition to filibuster abolition, highlighting intraparty divisions. Traders watch January 3, 2025, Senate organization resolutions for any procedural shifts, alongside early Trump administration priorities like border security and judicial nominations that could test cloture votes. Historical precedents include Democrats' 2013 use for lower-court nominees and Republicans' 2017 expansion to Supreme Court justices, but current trader consensus reflects caution amid reconciliation bill usage as a filibuster workaround.

Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a motion to invoke cloture and end debate on any part of the legislative process, with such a cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". Confirmations are considered part of the Senate’s “advice and consent” function, not part of the Senate’s “legislative process,” and will therefore not count towards this market's resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a motion to invoke cloture and end debate on any part of the legislative process, with such a cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". Confirmations are considered part of the Senate’s “advice and consent” function, not part of the Senate’s “legislative process,” and will therefore not count towards this market's resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a motion to invoke cloture and end debate on any part of the legislative process, with such a cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". Confirmations are considered part of the Senate’s “advice and consent” function, not part of the Senate’s “legislative process,” and will therefore not count towards this market's resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a motion to invoke cloture and end debate on any part of the legislative process, with such a cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". Confirmations are considered part of the Senate’s “advice and consent” function, not part of the Senate’s “legislative process,” and will therefore not count towards this market's resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government.Republicans hold a 53-47 Senate majority following the 2024 elections, positioning them to potentially invoke the nuclear option—a simple-majority rules change to eliminate or limit the filibuster—with support from Vice President JD Vance's tiebreaker if needed. Incoming Majority Leader John Thune, elected unopposed on November 13, 2024, has repeatedly affirmed commitment to preserving the filibuster as a tool against Democrats, tempering expectations despite President-elect Trump's calls for swift confirmation of nominees and spending cuts. Moderates like Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski have voiced opposition to filibuster abolition, highlighting intraparty divisions. Traders watch January 3, 2025, Senate organization resolutions for any procedural shifts, alongside early Trump administration priorities like border security and judicial nominations that could test cloture votes. Historical precedents include Democrats' 2013 use for lower-court nominees and Republicans' 2017 expansion to Supreme Court justices, but current trader consensus reflects caution amid reconciliation bill usage as a filibuster workaround.

Republicans hold a 53-47 Senate majority following the 2024 elections, positioning them to potentially invoke the nuclear option—a simple-majority rules change to eliminate or limit the filibuster—with support from Vice President JD Vance's tiebreaker if needed. Incoming Majority Leader John Thune, elected unopposed on November 13, 2024, has repeatedly affirmed commitment to preserving the filibuster as a tool against Democrats, tempering expectations despite President-elect Trump's calls for swift confirmation of nominees and spending cuts. Moderates like Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski have voiced opposition to filibuster abolition, highlighting intraparty divisions. Traders watch January 3, 2025, Senate organization resolutions for any procedural shifts, alongside early Trump administration priorities like border security and judicial nominations that could test cloture votes. Historical precedents include Democrats' 2013 use for lower-court nominees and Republicans' 2017 expansion to Supreme Court justices, but current trader consensus reflects caution amid reconciliation bill usage as a filibuster workaround.

Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour

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« Le GOP utilisera-t-il « l'option nucléaire » pour briser le flibustier d'ici... ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 4 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « 31 décembre 2026 » à 51%, suivi de « 31 mars 2026 » à 1%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 51¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 51% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Le GOP utilisera-t-il « l'option nucléaire » pour briser le flibustier d'ici... ? » a généré $550.8K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Oct 1, 2025. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Le GOP utilisera-t-il « l'option nucléaire » pour briser le flibustier d'ici... ? », parcourez les 4 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Le GOP utilisera-t-il « l'option nucléaire » pour briser le flibustier d'ici... ? » est « 31 décembre 2026 » à 51%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 51% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « 31 mars 2026 » à 1%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Le GOP utilisera-t-il « l'option nucléaire » pour briser le flibustier d'ici... ? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.