Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors "No" at 99.2% implied probability for any European country expelling a U.S. ambassador by March 31, driven by the absence of escalatory diplomatic incidents in the final days before resolution and stable transatlantic relations despite prior frictions. Recent tensions, such as France barring U.S. Ambassador Charles Kushner from government meetings in late February after he ignored a summons and Belgium summoning its U.S. envoy over comments on a domestic probe, have not progressed to formal declarations of persona non grata. Iran's early March offer of Strait of Hormuz passage incentives to expelling nations yielded no takers. With mere days left and no official announcements or brewing crises, barriers to sudden action remain high, though unforeseen espionage allegations or policy ruptures could theoretically shift dynamics.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourUn pays européen va-t-il expulser un ambassadeur américain d'ici le 31 mars ?
Un pays européen va-t-il expulser un ambassadeur américain d'ici le 31 mars ?
Oui
$43,776 Vol.
$43,776 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Oui
$43,776 Vol.
$43,776 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned European country by the respective government between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a European country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, a “European country” is defined as any of the following sovereign states: Albania, Andorra, Austria, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Kosovo, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Moldova, Monaco, Montenegro, Netherlands, North Macedonia, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, San Marino, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, United Kingdom, and Vatican City.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors "No" at 99.2% implied probability for any European country expelling a U.S. ambassador by March 31, driven by the absence of escalatory diplomatic incidents in the final days before resolution and stable transatlantic relations despite prior frictions. Recent tensions, such as France barring U.S. Ambassador Charles Kushner from government meetings in late February after he ignored a summons and Belgium summoning its U.S. envoy over comments on a domestic probe, have not progressed to formal declarations of persona non grata. Iran's early March offer of Strait of Hormuz passage incentives to expelling nations yielded no takers. With mere days left and no official announcements or brewing crises, barriers to sudden action remain high, though unforeseen espionage allegations or policy ruptures could theoretically shift dynamics.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned European country by the respective government between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a European country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, a “European country” is defined as any of the following sovereign states: Albania, Andorra, Austria, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Kosovo, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Moldova, Monaco, Montenegro, Netherlands, North Macedonia, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, San Marino, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, United Kingdom, and Vatican City.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a European country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, a “European country” is defined as any of the following sovereign states: Albania, Andorra, Austria, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Kosovo, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Moldova, Monaco, Montenegro, Netherlands, North Macedonia, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, San Marino, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, United Kingdom, and Vatican City.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Mar 9, 2026, 11:22 PM ET
Volume
$43,776Date de fin
Mar 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 9, 2026, 11:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned European country by the respective government between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a European country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, a “European country” is defined as any of the following sovereign states: Albania, Andorra, Austria, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Kosovo, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Moldova, Monaco, Montenegro, Netherlands, North Macedonia, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, San Marino, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, United Kingdom, and Vatican City.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors "No" at 99.2% implied probability for any European country expelling a U.S. ambassador by March 31, driven by the absence of escalatory diplomatic incidents in the final days before resolution and stable transatlantic relations despite prior frictions. Recent tensions, such as France barring U.S. Ambassador Charles Kushner from government meetings in late February after he ignored a summons and Belgium summoning its U.S. envoy over comments on a domestic probe, have not progressed to formal declarations of persona non grata. Iran's early March offer of Strait of Hormuz passage incentives to expelling nations yielded no takers. With mere days left and no official announcements or brewing crises, barriers to sudden action remain high, though unforeseen espionage allegations or policy ruptures could theoretically shift dynamics.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned European country by the respective government between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a European country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, a “European country” is defined as any of the following sovereign states: Albania, Andorra, Austria, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Kosovo, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Moldova, Monaco, Montenegro, Netherlands, North Macedonia, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, San Marino, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, United Kingdom, and Vatican City.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a European country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, a “European country” is defined as any of the following sovereign states: Albania, Andorra, Austria, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Kosovo, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Moldova, Monaco, Montenegro, Netherlands, North Macedonia, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, San Marino, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, United Kingdom, and Vatican City.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$43,776Date de fin
Mar 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 9, 2026, 11:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors "No" at 99.2% implied probability for any European country expelling a U.S. ambassador by March 31, driven by the absence of escalatory diplomatic incidents in the final days before resolution and stable transatlantic relations despite prior frictions. Recent tensions, such as France barring U.S. Ambassador Charles Kushner from government meetings in late February after he ignored a summons and Belgium summoning its U.S. envoy over comments on a domestic probe, have not progressed to formal declarations of persona non grata. Iran's early March offer of Strait of Hormuz passage incentives to expelling nations yielded no takers. With mere days left and no official announcements or brewing crises, barriers to sudden action remain high, though unforeseen espionage allegations or policy ruptures could theoretically shift dynamics.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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