Polls consistently show no candidate surpassing the 50% majority threshold required for an outright win in Texas' Republican U.S. Senate primary, fueling trader consensus at near-100% odds for a runoff between the top two finishers. Incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz leads aggregates around 45-60% depending on the survey, but a fragmented field—including challengers like Holland Gibson and Rufus Lopez—splits the remaining vote, with recent University of Houston and internal campaign data reinforcing this dynamic. Historical precedents in multi-candidate Texas GOP primaries favor runoffs absent late consolidation. Realistic shifts could stem from higher-than-expected turnout boosting Cruz or a major endorsement, though the March 5 primary looms with minimal time for change.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourUn candidat remportera-t-il la primaire du Sénat républicain du Texas ?
Un candidat remportera-t-il la primaire du Sénat républicain du Texas ?
Oui
$0.00 Vol.
$0.00 Vol.
3 mars 2026
Oui
$0.00 Vol.
$0.00 Vol.
3 mars 2026
Primary elections in Texas are scheduled to be held on March 3, 2026, with a runoff on May 26 if no candidate receives a majority.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round, i.e., obtains an outright majority. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. Polls consistently show no candidate surpassing the 50% majority threshold required for an outright win in Texas' Republican U.S. Senate primary, fueling trader consensus at near-100% odds for a runoff between the top two finishers. Incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz leads aggregates around 45-60% depending on the survey, but a fragmented field—including challengers like Holland Gibson and Rufus Lopez—splits the remaining vote, with recent University of Houston and internal campaign data reinforcing this dynamic. Historical precedents in multi-candidate Texas GOP primaries favor runoffs absent late consolidation. Realistic shifts could stem from higher-than-expected turnout boosting Cruz or a major endorsement, though the March 5 primary looms with minimal time for change.
Primary elections in Texas are scheduled to be held on March 3, 2026, with a runoff on May 26 if no candidate receives a majority.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round, i.e., obtains an outright majority. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round, i.e., obtains an outright majority. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Marché ouvert : Feb 4, 2026, 1:22 PM ET
Volume
$0Date de fin
3 mars 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 4, 2026, 1:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
Primary elections in Texas are scheduled to be held on March 3, 2026, with a runoff on May 26 if no candidate receives a majority.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round, i.e., obtains an outright majority. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. Polls consistently show no candidate surpassing the 50% majority threshold required for an outright win in Texas' Republican U.S. Senate primary, fueling trader consensus at near-100% odds for a runoff between the top two finishers. Incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz leads aggregates around 45-60% depending on the survey, but a fragmented field—including challengers like Holland Gibson and Rufus Lopez—splits the remaining vote, with recent University of Houston and internal campaign data reinforcing this dynamic. Historical precedents in multi-candidate Texas GOP primaries favor runoffs absent late consolidation. Realistic shifts could stem from higher-than-expected turnout boosting Cruz or a major endorsement, though the March 5 primary looms with minimal time for change.
Primary elections in Texas are scheduled to be held on March 3, 2026, with a runoff on May 26 if no candidate receives a majority.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round, i.e., obtains an outright majority. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round, i.e., obtains an outright majority. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$0Date de fin
3 mars 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 4, 2026, 1:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
Polls consistently show no candidate surpassing the 50% majority threshold required for an outright win in Texas' Republican U.S. Senate primary, fueling trader consensus at near-100% odds for a runoff between the top two finishers. Incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz leads aggregates around 45-60% depending on the survey, but a fragmented field—including challengers like Holland Gibson and Rufus Lopez—splits the remaining vote, with recent University of Houston and internal campaign data reinforcing this dynamic. Historical precedents in multi-candidate Texas GOP primaries favor runoffs absent late consolidation. Realistic shifts could stem from higher-than-expected turnout boosting Cruz or a major endorsement, though the March 5 primary looms with minimal time for change.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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