US-Israel airstrikes on Iran, launched February 28 as "major combat operations" to degrade military and nuclear capabilities, have escalated into a month-long conflict with over 10,000 US targets hit and mutual missile exchanges. Tehran threatens retaliation against regional energy sites in US-allied Gulf states—including UAE, Bahrain, and Iraq hosting American bases—if its infrastructure is further targeted, as Iranian officials warned March 22 amid complaints from Saudi leaders over shifted US defenses. Diplomatic signals mix: Iran reviews a US-mediated proposal to end the war, issues demands for Strait of Hormuz control and reparations, while President Trump extended a shipping deadline as Israel vows intensified attacks. With the March 31 resolution nearing, no new Iranian strikes on these states have materialized, but trader consensus reflects high escalation risks from stalled ceasefire talks and proxy warnings like Houthi alerts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour$3,021,686 Vol.
Mar 7, 2026
Bahrain
89%
UAE
92%
Iraq
85%
Oman
28%
Syrie
7%
Yémen
4%
Azerbaijan
3%
Turquie
3%
Armenia
2%
Pakistan
2%
Royaume-Uni
2%
Chypre
2%
Germany
2%
France
1%
Ukraine
1%
Hungary
1%
Georgia
1%
Italy
1%
Afghanistan
1%
Inde
1%
Poland
<1%
Spain
<1%
$3,021,686 Vol.
Bahrain
$28,631 Vol.
89%
UAE
$38,549 Vol.
92%
Iraq
$21,756 Vol.
85%
Oman
$41,892 Vol.
28%
Syrie
$78,414 Vol.
7%
Yémen
$20,353 Vol.
4%
Azerbaijan
$17,776 Vol.
3%
Turquie
$495,130 Vol.
3%
Armenia
$854 Vol.
2%
Pakistan
$53,532 Vol.
2%
Royaume-Uni
$38,412 Vol.
2%
Chypre
$1,288,933 Vol.
2%
Germany
$2,970 Vol.
2%
France
$1,936 Vol.
1%
Ukraine
$2,767 Vol.
1%
Hungary
$917 Vol.
1%
Georgia
$1,274 Vol.
1%
Italy
$1,402 Vol.
1%
Afghanistan
$46,045 Vol.
1%
Inde
$74,337 Vol.
1%
Poland
$281,196 Vol.
<1%
Spain
$87,355 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on a listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of a listed country between March 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET(ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.US-Israel airstrikes on Iran, launched February 28 as "major combat operations" to degrade military and nuclear capabilities, have escalated into a month-long conflict with over 10,000 US targets hit and mutual missile exchanges. Tehran threatens retaliation against regional energy sites in US-allied Gulf states—including UAE, Bahrain, and Iraq hosting American bases—if its infrastructure is further targeted, as Iranian officials warned March 22 amid complaints from Saudi leaders over shifted US defenses. Diplomatic signals mix: Iran reviews a US-mediated proposal to end the war, issues demands for Strait of Hormuz control and reparations, while President Trump extended a shipping deadline as Israel vows intensified attacks. With the March 31 resolution nearing, no new Iranian strikes on these states have materialized, but trader consensus reflects high escalation risks from stalled ceasefire talks and proxy warnings like Houthi alerts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on a listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of a listed country between March 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET(ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Marché ouvert : Feb 28, 2026, 11:33 AM ET
Volume
$3,021,686Date de fin
Mar 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 28, 2026, 11:33 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Résultat proposé: Oui
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Oui
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on a listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of a listed country between March 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET(ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.US-Israel airstrikes on Iran, launched February 28 as "major combat operations" to degrade military and nuclear capabilities, have escalated into a month-long conflict with over 10,000 US targets hit and mutual missile exchanges. Tehran threatens retaliation against regional energy sites in US-allied Gulf states—including UAE, Bahrain, and Iraq hosting American bases—if its infrastructure is further targeted, as Iranian officials warned March 22 amid complaints from Saudi leaders over shifted US defenses. Diplomatic signals mix: Iran reviews a US-mediated proposal to end the war, issues demands for Strait of Hormuz control and reparations, while President Trump extended a shipping deadline as Israel vows intensified attacks. With the March 31 resolution nearing, no new Iranian strikes on these states have materialized, but trader consensus reflects high escalation risks from stalled ceasefire talks and proxy warnings like Houthi alerts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on a listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of a listed country between March 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET(ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$3,021,686Date de fin
Mar 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 28, 2026, 11:33 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Résultat proposé: Oui
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Oui
US-Israel airstrikes on Iran, launched February 28 as "major combat operations" to degrade military and nuclear capabilities, have escalated into a month-long conflict with over 10,000 US targets hit and mutual missile exchanges. Tehran threatens retaliation against regional energy sites in US-allied Gulf states—including UAE, Bahrain, and Iraq hosting American bases—if its infrastructure is further targeted, as Iranian officials warned March 22 amid complaints from Saudi leaders over shifted US defenses. Diplomatic signals mix: Iran reviews a US-mediated proposal to end the war, issues demands for Strait of Hormuz control and reparations, while President Trump extended a shipping deadline as Israel vows intensified attacks. With the March 31 resolution nearing, no new Iranian strikes on these states have materialized, but trader consensus reflects high escalation risks from stalled ceasefire talks and proxy warnings like Houthi alerts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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