Market icon
Tech·AI

Quelle entreprise a le troisième meilleur modèle d'IA fin mars ?

Market icon
Tech·AI

Quelle entreprise a le troisième meilleur modèle d'IA fin mars ?

Mar 31

Apr 30

Mar 31

Apr 30

Google 97.4%

xAI 2.1%

OpenAI <1%

Z.ai <1%

Polymarket

$458,493 Vol.

Google 97.4%

xAI 2.1%

OpenAI <1%

Z.ai <1%

Polymarket

$458,493 Vol.

Market icon

Google

$46,430 Vol.

97%

Market icon

xAI

$30,038 Vol.

2%

Market icon

OpenAI

$47,395 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Z.ai

$33,879 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Anthropic

$61,677 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Alibaba

$33,442 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

DeepSeek

$48,520 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Mistral

$51,744 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Baidu

$50,985 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Moonshot

$27,551 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Meituan

$26,832 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. If two models are tied for the third best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No") The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus assigns Google a 97.4% implied probability for the third-best AI model by end of March, anchored by Gemini 1.5 Pro's steady third-place hold on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard throughout the month. Following its February release, the model fended off pressure from Anthropic's Claude 3 Opus launch on March 4—which captured first—and OpenAI's GPT-4 Turbo in second, thanks to superior long-context handling up to 1 million tokens and robust multimodal benchmarks. Leaderboard Elo scores remained stable over the past week, with xAI's Grok-1 and others lagging significantly. Potential challenges include a surprise LMSYS recalculation or alternative metrics like MMLU favoring rivals, but traders view these as low-probability given the data's consistency.

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.

If two models are tied for the third best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$458,493
Date de fin
Mar 31, 2026
Marché ouvert
Dec 2, 2025, 6:03 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. If two models are tied for the third best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No") The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus assigns Google a 97.4% implied probability for the third-best AI model by end of March, anchored by Gemini 1.5 Pro's steady third-place hold on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard throughout the month. Following its February release, the model fended off pressure from Anthropic's Claude 3 Opus launch on March 4—which captured first—and OpenAI's GPT-4 Turbo in second, thanks to superior long-context handling up to 1 million tokens and robust multimodal benchmarks. Leaderboard Elo scores remained stable over the past week, with xAI's Grok-1 and others lagging significantly. Potential challenges include a surprise LMSYS recalculation or alternative metrics like MMLU favoring rivals, but traders view these as low-probability given the data's consistency.

Trader consensus assigns Google a 97.4% implied probability for the third-best AI model by end of March, anchored by Gemini 1.5 Pro's steady third-place hold on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard throughout the month. Following its February release, the model fended off pressure from Anthropic's Claude 3 Opus launch on March 4—which captured first—and OpenAI's GPT-4 Turbo in second, thanks to superior long-context handling up to 1 million tokens and robust multimodal benchmarks. Leaderboard Elo scores remained stable over the past week, with xAI's Grok-1 and others lagging significantly. Potential challenges include a surprise LMSYS recalculation or alternative metrics like MMLU favoring rivals, but traders view these as low-probability given the data's consistency.

Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour

Méfiez-vous des liens externes.

Questions fréquentes

« Quelle entreprise a le troisième meilleur modèle d'IA fin mars ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 11 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Google » à 97%, suivi de « xAI » à 2%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 97¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 97% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Quelle entreprise a le troisième meilleur modèle d'IA fin mars ? » a généré $458.5K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Dec 2, 2025. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Quelle entreprise a le troisième meilleur modèle d'IA fin mars ? », parcourez les 11 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Quelle entreprise a le troisième meilleur modèle d'IA fin mars ? » est « Google » à 97%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 97% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « xAI » à 2%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Quelle entreprise a le troisième meilleur modèle d'IA fin mars ? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.