Market icon
Géopolitique·Iran

Qu'est-ce que l'Iran frappera d'ici le 31 mars ?

Market icon
Géopolitique·Iran

Qu'est-ce que l'Iran frappera d'ici le 31 mars ?

Apr 30

Apr 30

$431,856 Vol.

Polymarket

$431,856 Vol.

Polymarket

Dimona (Centre de Recherche Nucléaire du Néguev Shimon Peres)

$240,685 Vol.

2%

Burj Khalifa

$916 Vol.

8%

Champ de Ghawar

$28,724 Vol.

13%

Champ de Safaniya

$39,646 Vol.

9%

Installation de traitement du pétrole d'Abqaiq

$36,817 Vol.

12%

Raffinerie d'Al Zour

$73,387 Vol.

12%

Leviathan Field

$665 Vol.

9%

Khurais Field

$4,058 Vol.

12%

Ras Tanura

$4,151 Vol.

14%

East–West Pipeline

$0 Vol.

13%

Champ/Habshan Complexe de traitement

$646 Vol.

11%

Ras Laffan Industrial City

$2,162 Vol.

11%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed city/facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed pipeline/facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed city/facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed city/facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.

For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Volume
$431,856
Marché ouvert
Mar 20, 2026, 5:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed city/facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed city/facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed pipeline/facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed city/facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.

The fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad on December 8 marked a major setback for Iran's regional influence, disrupting its supply lines to Hezbollah and weakening the "axis of resistance" amid ongoing Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon and Syria. Iran has not launched a direct strike since its October 1 missile barrage on Israel, followed by limited Israeli retaliation on October 26 targeting military sites near Tehran, which Iran downplayed to avoid escalation. Stalled US-Iran nuclear talks in Oman and the incoming Trump administration's pro-Israel stance, effective January 20, heighten deterrence against major action. Traders monitor proxy activities by Houthis and Hezbollah for signals of de-escalation or renewed threats before the March 31 deadline, with no verified strikes in the past 30 days.

Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour

Méfiez-vous des liens externes.

Questions fréquentes

« Qu'est-ce que l'Iran frappera d'ici le 31 mars ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 14 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Raffinerie de Ruwais » à 100%, suivi de « Raffinerie de Mina Al-Ahmadi » à 100%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 100¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 100% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Qu'est-ce que l'Iran frappera d'ici le 31 mars ? » a généré $431.9K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Mar 1, 2026. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Qu'est-ce que l'Iran frappera d'ici le 31 mars ? », parcourez les 14 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Qu'est-ce que l'Iran frappera d'ici le 31 mars ? » est « Raffinerie de Ruwais » à 100%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 100% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Raffinerie de Mina Al-Ahmadi » à 100%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Qu'est-ce que l'Iran frappera d'ici le 31 mars ? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.