Iran's retaliatory missile and drone strikes against Israel, US forces at Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia—injuring 12 American troops on March 28—and Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and the UAE continue amid the month-long US-Israeli war triggered by strikes on Iranian nuclear sites and leadership. Iran-backed Houthis escalated with their first ballistic missile attack on Israel that same day, signaling proxy involvement. With over 80 waves of Iranian attacks logged, traders eye daily battlefield reports, potential US ground deployments under President Trump, and diplomatic signals for de-escalation, as these shape the trajectory of Tehran's military actions through April 30.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourWhat will Iran conduct military action against by April 30?
What will Iran conduct military action against by April 30?
$53,562 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Ras Laffan Industrial City
50%
Ras Tanura
40%
Mina Al-Ahmadi Refinery
31%
Al Zour Refinery
27%
Habshan Field/Processing Complex
26%
Ruwais Refinery
26%
Ghawar Field
24%
East–West Pipeline
21%
Khurais Field
20%
Safaniya Field
19%
Leviathan Field
18%
Abqaiq oil processing facility
17%
Dimona (Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center)
10%
Burj Khalifa
6%
$53,562 Vol.
Ras Laffan Industrial City
$11,320 Vol.
50%
Ras Tanura
$4,320 Vol.
40%
Mina Al-Ahmadi Refinery
$3,612 Vol.
31%
Al Zour Refinery
$0 Vol.
27%
Habshan Field/Processing Complex
$6,233 Vol.
26%
Ruwais Refinery
$1,865 Vol.
26%
Ghawar Field
$549 Vol.
24%
East–West Pipeline
$4,927 Vol.
21%
Khurais Field
$4,358 Vol.
20%
Safaniya Field
$1,228 Vol.
19%
Leviathan Field
$1,511 Vol.
18%
Abqaiq oil processing facility
$587 Vol.
17%
Dimona (Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center)
$12,723 Vol.
10%
Burj Khalifa
$330 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.Iran's retaliatory missile and drone strikes against Israel, US forces at Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia—injuring 12 American troops on March 28—and Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and the UAE continue amid the month-long US-Israeli war triggered by strikes on Iranian nuclear sites and leadership. Iran-backed Houthis escalated with their first ballistic missile attack on Israel that same day, signaling proxy involvement. With over 80 waves of Iranian attacks logged, traders eye daily battlefield reports, potential US ground deployments under President Trump, and diplomatic signals for de-escalation, as these shape the trajectory of Tehran's military actions through April 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Marché ouvert : Mar 23, 2026, 6:24 PM ET
Volume
$53,562Date de fin
Apr 30, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 23, 2026, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.Iran's retaliatory missile and drone strikes against Israel, US forces at Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia—injuring 12 American troops on March 28—and Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and the UAE continue amid the month-long US-Israeli war triggered by strikes on Iranian nuclear sites and leadership. Iran-backed Houthis escalated with their first ballistic missile attack on Israel that same day, signaling proxy involvement. With over 80 waves of Iranian attacks logged, traders eye daily battlefield reports, potential US ground deployments under President Trump, and diplomatic signals for de-escalation, as these shape the trajectory of Tehran's military actions through April 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Volume
$53,562Date de fin
Apr 30, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 23, 2026, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran's retaliatory missile and drone strikes against Israel, US forces at Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia—injuring 12 American troops on March 28—and Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and the UAE continue amid the month-long US-Israeli war triggered by strikes on Iranian nuclear sites and leadership. Iran-backed Houthis escalated with their first ballistic missile attack on Israel that same day, signaling proxy involvement. With over 80 waves of Iranian attacks logged, traders eye daily battlefield reports, potential US ground deployments under President Trump, and diplomatic signals for de-escalation, as these shape the trajectory of Tehran's military actions through April 30.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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