Trader consensus implies a 64.5% probability against a US-Cuba military clash in 2026, reflecting the absence of escalatory military or diplomatic signals in recent weeks. US intelligence assessments in late June 2024 confirmed Chinese signals intelligence facilities in Cuba, prompting State Department condemnations and tightened sanctions, but responses have stayed non-kinetic, emphasizing migration enforcement pacts and economic pressure amid Cuba's ongoing crisis. No troop deployments, airstrikes, or naval provocations have occurred, aligning with post-Cold War baselines where bilateral tensions—over human rights, terrorism designations, and foreign policy—resolve through diplomacy rather than confrontation. US elections may influence future posturing, yet no near-term catalysts point to armed conflict.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourOui
$56,656 Vol.
$56,656 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Oui
$56,656 Vol.
$56,656 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus implies a 64.5% probability against a US-Cuba military clash in 2026, reflecting the absence of escalatory military or diplomatic signals in recent weeks. US intelligence assessments in late June 2024 confirmed Chinese signals intelligence facilities in Cuba, prompting State Department condemnations and tightened sanctions, but responses have stayed non-kinetic, emphasizing migration enforcement pacts and economic pressure amid Cuba's ongoing crisis. No troop deployments, airstrikes, or naval provocations have occurred, aligning with post-Cold War baselines where bilateral tensions—over human rights, terrorism designations, and foreign policy—resolve through diplomacy rather than confrontation. US elections may influence future posturing, yet no near-term catalysts point to armed conflict.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Feb 25, 2026, 7:31 PM ET
Volume
$56,656Date de fin
Dec 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 25, 2026, 7:31 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus implies a 64.5% probability against a US-Cuba military clash in 2026, reflecting the absence of escalatory military or diplomatic signals in recent weeks. US intelligence assessments in late June 2024 confirmed Chinese signals intelligence facilities in Cuba, prompting State Department condemnations and tightened sanctions, but responses have stayed non-kinetic, emphasizing migration enforcement pacts and economic pressure amid Cuba's ongoing crisis. No troop deployments, airstrikes, or naval provocations have occurred, aligning with post-Cold War baselines where bilateral tensions—over human rights, terrorism designations, and foreign policy—resolve through diplomacy rather than confrontation. US elections may influence future posturing, yet no near-term catalysts point to armed conflict.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$56,656Date de fin
Dec 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 25, 2026, 7:31 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus implies a 64.5% probability against a US-Cuba military clash in 2026, reflecting the absence of escalatory military or diplomatic signals in recent weeks. US intelligence assessments in late June 2024 confirmed Chinese signals intelligence facilities in Cuba, prompting State Department condemnations and tightened sanctions, but responses have stayed non-kinetic, emphasizing migration enforcement pacts and economic pressure amid Cuba's ongoing crisis. No troop deployments, airstrikes, or naval provocations have occurred, aligning with post-Cold War baselines where bilateral tensions—over human rights, terrorism designations, and foreign policy—resolve through diplomacy rather than confrontation. US elections may influence future posturing, yet no near-term catalysts point to armed conflict.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes