President Trump's March 27 speech in Miami declaring "Cuba is next" after U.S. military operations in Venezuela and Iran has spiked trader sentiment, with Polymarket implying a 37% chance of a U.S. drone, missile, or airstrike on Cuban soil by December 31 amid the ongoing oil blockade imposed in January that triggered nationwide blackouts. Cuba's March 22 announcement of military readiness for potential aggression, coupled with confirmed bilateral talks on energy relief, tempers near-term odds to 1% by March 31, reflecting diplomatic off-ramps despite heightened rhetoric. Top U.S. generals denied invasion preparations on March 19, underscoring uncertainty in escalation paths versus negotiations through year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourFrappe américaine sur Cuba par… ?
Frappe américaine sur Cuba par… ?
$2,777,456 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
31 mars
1%
31 décembre
37%
$2,777,456 Vol.
31 mars
$1,472,447 Vol.
1%
31 décembre
$770,532 Vol.
37%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.President Trump's March 27 speech in Miami declaring "Cuba is next" after U.S. military operations in Venezuela and Iran has spiked trader sentiment, with Polymarket implying a 37% chance of a U.S. drone, missile, or airstrike on Cuban soil by December 31 amid the ongoing oil blockade imposed in January that triggered nationwide blackouts. Cuba's March 22 announcement of military readiness for potential aggression, coupled with confirmed bilateral talks on energy relief, tempers near-term odds to 1% by March 31, reflecting diplomatic off-ramps despite heightened rhetoric. Top U.S. generals denied invasion preparations on March 19, underscoring uncertainty in escalation paths versus negotiations through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Marché ouvert : Jan 4, 2026, 3:08 PM ET
Volume
$2,777,456Date de fin
Dec 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 4, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.President Trump's March 27 speech in Miami declaring "Cuba is next" after U.S. military operations in Venezuela and Iran has spiked trader sentiment, with Polymarket implying a 37% chance of a U.S. drone, missile, or airstrike on Cuban soil by December 31 amid the ongoing oil blockade imposed in January that triggered nationwide blackouts. Cuba's March 22 announcement of military readiness for potential aggression, coupled with confirmed bilateral talks on energy relief, tempers near-term odds to 1% by March 31, reflecting diplomatic off-ramps despite heightened rhetoric. Top U.S. generals denied invasion preparations on March 19, underscoring uncertainty in escalation paths versus negotiations through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$2,777,456Date de fin
Dec 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 4, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump's March 27 speech in Miami declaring "Cuba is next" after U.S. military operations in Venezuela and Iran has spiked trader sentiment, with Polymarket implying a 37% chance of a U.S. drone, missile, or airstrike on Cuban soil by December 31 amid the ongoing oil blockade imposed in January that triggered nationwide blackouts. Cuba's March 22 announcement of military readiness for potential aggression, coupled with confirmed bilateral talks on energy relief, tempers near-term odds to 1% by March 31, reflecting diplomatic off-ramps despite heightened rhetoric. Top U.S. generals denied invasion preparations on March 19, underscoring uncertainty in escalation paths versus negotiations through year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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