Oklahoma's 3rd Congressional District, with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+23—the 15th most Republican nationally—drives trader consensus at 91.5% for a Republican House winner, bolstered by incumbent Frank Lucas's two-decade tenure and dominant past performances, including a 73% 2024 primary win. Lucas faces token Republican primary opposition from Michael DiMario ahead of the June 16 primaries, while Democrats' Jules Roberson vies in her primary and independent Rebekah LaVann enters the November 3 general; forecasters unanimously rate it Solid Republican. Scenarios to challenge this include a GOP primary upset, scandal or health issues for Lucas, massive Democratic fundraising, or a national midterm wave depressing Republican turnout in this safe seat.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourOK-03 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
OK-03 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
$31,916 Vol.
$31,916 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Parti républicain
92%
Parti démocrate
7%
$31,916 Vol.
$31,916 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Parti républicain
$18,759 Vol.
92%
Parti démocrate
$13,157 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Oklahoma's 3rd Congressional District, with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+23—the 15th most Republican nationally—drives trader consensus at 91.5% for a Republican House winner, bolstered by incumbent Frank Lucas's two-decade tenure and dominant past performances, including a 73% 2024 primary win. Lucas faces token Republican primary opposition from Michael DiMario ahead of the June 16 primaries, while Democrats' Jules Roberson vies in her primary and independent Rebekah LaVann enters the November 3 general; forecasters unanimously rate it Solid Republican. Scenarios to challenge this include a GOP primary upset, scandal or health issues for Lucas, massive Democratic fundraising, or a national midterm wave depressing Republican turnout in this safe seat.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$31,916Date de fin
Nov 3, 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Oklahoma's 3rd Congressional District, with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+23—the 15th most Republican nationally—drives trader consensus at 91.5% for a Republican House winner, bolstered by incumbent Frank Lucas's two-decade tenure and dominant past performances, including a 73% 2024 primary win. Lucas faces token Republican primary opposition from Michael DiMario ahead of the June 16 primaries, while Democrats' Jules Roberson vies in her primary and independent Rebekah LaVann enters the November 3 general; forecasters unanimously rate it Solid Republican. Scenarios to challenge this include a GOP primary upset, scandal or health issues for Lucas, massive Democratic fundraising, or a national midterm wave depressing Republican turnout in this safe seat.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$31,916Date de fin
Nov 3, 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Oklahoma's 3rd Congressional District, with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+23—the 15th most Republican nationally—drives trader consensus at 91.5% for a Republican House winner, bolstered by incumbent Frank Lucas's two-decade tenure and dominant past performances, including a 73% 2024 primary win. Lucas faces token Republican primary opposition from Michael DiMario ahead of the June 16 primaries, while Democrats' Jules Roberson vies in her primary and independent Rebekah LaVann enters the November 3 general; forecasters unanimously rate it Solid Republican. Scenarios to challenge this include a GOP primary upset, scandal or health issues for Lucas, massive Democratic fundraising, or a national midterm wave depressing Republican turnout in this safe seat.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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