Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors fewer than 2.6 million TSA-screened passengers on March 28 at 98% implied probability, driven by the escalating partial government shutdown crisis crippling staffing—over 450 officers have quit since mid-February, with thousands more calling out amid unpaid paychecks, forcing checkpoint closures and four-hour-plus lines at major hubs. Recent volumes reflect deterrence: 2.19 million on March 24, 2.38 million on March 25, rebounding to 2.72 million on March 26, but year-over-year down 9%, with spring break demand stifled by chaos and private jet usage up 39%. ICE agents' assistance provides minor relief, yet an upset above 2.6 million could stem from President Trump's executive order accelerating paychecks or a sudden travel rebound before Easter week. Official numbers post Monday.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour<2.6M 98.0%
2.6M-2.8M 1.5%
2.8M-3.0M <1%
3.0M-3.2M <1%
$8,040 Vol.
$8,040 Vol.
<2.6M
98%
2.6M-2.8M
2%
2.8M-3.0M
<1%
3.0M-3.2M
<1%
3.2M-3.4M
<1%
>3.4M
<1%
<2.6M 98.0%
2.6M-2.8M 1.5%
2.8M-3.0M <1%
3.0M-3.2M <1%
$8,040 Vol.
$8,040 Vol.
<2.6M
98%
2.6M-2.8M
2%
2.8M-3.0M
<1%
3.0M-3.2M
<1%
3.2M-3.4M
<1%
>3.4M
<1%
If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for the listed date by April 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.
Marché ouvert : Mar 23, 2026, 5:54 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumesResolver
0x69c47De9D...If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for the listed date by April 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.
Resolution Source
https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumesResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors fewer than 2.6 million TSA-screened passengers on March 28 at 98% implied probability, driven by the escalating partial government shutdown crisis crippling staffing—over 450 officers have quit since mid-February, with thousands more calling out amid unpaid paychecks, forcing checkpoint closures and four-hour-plus lines at major hubs. Recent volumes reflect deterrence: 2.19 million on March 24, 2.38 million on March 25, rebounding to 2.72 million on March 26, but year-over-year down 9%, with spring break demand stifled by chaos and private jet usage up 39%. ICE agents' assistance provides minor relief, yet an upset above 2.6 million could stem from President Trump's executive order accelerating paychecks or a sudden travel rebound before Easter week. Official numbers post Monday.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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