Trader consensus favors Hungary's Viktor Orbán as the next leader out of power before 2027 at 57%, driven by polls showing his Fidesz party trailing opposition challenger Péter Magyar ahead of the April 12 parliamentary election—now just two weeks away—amid economic discontent, large anti-government protests, and fears of electoral irregularities highlighted in a March 27 Bloomberg analysis portraying Orbán as an underdog after 16 years in office. Cuba's Miguel Díaz-Canel ranks second at 15.5% following March 20 reports of U.S. diplomatic pressure under Trump conditioning talks on his resignation, though Havana categorically rejected negotiations over his term ending in 2028. Netanyahu's 5% reflects ongoing coalition tensions and failure of recent Iran conflict to boost polls, with no snap election imminent before October 2026, while distant timelines sideline others.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourProchain leader hors du pouvoir avant 2027 ?
Prochain leader hors du pouvoir avant 2027 ?
Orbán - Premier ministre de Hongrie 57%
Díaz-Canel - Président de Cuba 16%
Netanyahu - Premier ministre d’Israël 5.0%
Starmer - Premier ministre britannique 4.7%
$2,947,091 Vol.
$2,947,091 Vol.
Orbán - Premier ministre de Hongrie
57%
Díaz-Canel - Président de Cuba
16%
Netanyahu - Premier ministre d’Israël
5%
Starmer - Premier ministre britannique
5%
Takaichi - Première ministre du Japon
3%
Poutine - Président de la Russie
2%
Aucun avant 2027
1%
Trump - Président des États-Unis
1%
Zelenskyy - Président de l'Ukraine
1%
Petro - Président de la Colombie
1%
Macron - Président de la France
1%
Abbas - Président de la Palestine
1%
Xi - Secrétaire général du PCC
1%
Sánchez - Premier ministre espagnol
1%
Rodríguez - Présidente par intérim du Venezuela
1%
Lecornu - Premier ministre de la France
1%
Lula da Silva - Président du Brésil
1%
al-Sharaa - Président de la Syrie
1%
Erdoğan - Président de la Turquie
<1%
Albanese - Premier ministre australien
<1%
Newsom - Gouverneur de Californie
<1%
Merz - Chancelier allemand
<1%
Sheinbaum - Présidente du Mexique
<1%
Kim - Dirigeant suprême de la Corée du Nord
<1%
Milei - Président de l'Argentine
<1%
Orbán - Premier ministre de Hongrie 57%
Díaz-Canel - Président de Cuba 16%
Netanyahu - Premier ministre d’Israël 5.0%
Starmer - Premier ministre britannique 4.7%
$2,947,091 Vol.
$2,947,091 Vol.
Orbán - Premier ministre de Hongrie
57%
Díaz-Canel - Président de Cuba
16%
Netanyahu - Premier ministre d’Israël
5%
Starmer - Premier ministre britannique
5%
Takaichi - Première ministre du Japon
3%
Poutine - Président de la Russie
2%
Aucun avant 2027
1%
Trump - Président des États-Unis
1%
Zelenskyy - Président de l'Ukraine
1%
Petro - Président de la Colombie
1%
Macron - Président de la France
1%
Abbas - Président de la Palestine
1%
Xi - Secrétaire général du PCC
1%
Sánchez - Premier ministre espagnol
1%
Rodríguez - Présidente par intérim du Venezuela
1%
Lecornu - Premier ministre de la France
1%
Lula da Silva - Président du Brésil
1%
al-Sharaa - Président de la Syrie
1%
Erdoğan - Président de la Turquie
<1%
Albanese - Premier ministre australien
<1%
Newsom - Gouverneur de Californie
<1%
Merz - Chancelier allemand
<1%
Sheinbaum - Présidente du Mexique
<1%
Kim - Dirigeant suprême de la Corée du Nord
<1%
Milei - Président de l'Argentine
<1%
An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.
Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.
If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Mar 2, 2026, 7:09 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.
Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.
If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors Hungary's Viktor Orbán as the next leader out of power before 2027 at 57%, driven by polls showing his Fidesz party trailing opposition challenger Péter Magyar ahead of the April 12 parliamentary election—now just two weeks away—amid economic discontent, large anti-government protests, and fears of electoral irregularities highlighted in a March 27 Bloomberg analysis portraying Orbán as an underdog after 16 years in office. Cuba's Miguel Díaz-Canel ranks second at 15.5% following March 20 reports of U.S. diplomatic pressure under Trump conditioning talks on his resignation, though Havana categorically rejected negotiations over his term ending in 2028. Netanyahu's 5% reflects ongoing coalition tensions and failure of recent Iran conflict to boost polls, with no snap election imminent before October 2026, while distant timelines sideline others.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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