**Don Davis maintains a polling edge in the redrawn North Carolina 1st District despite Republican map changes that shifted the seat toward an R+8 lean.** Recent surveys, including a late-September/early-October GQR poll showing Davis ahead 47-39 percent (allocated 50-45) and an October Neighborhood Research survey at 51-41, have reinforced his position as the narrow favorite. Buckhout’s lower favorability ratings and earlier negative headlines on campaign-related betting have weighed on her support in this rematch from 2024. Both candidates have raised substantial funds, with Davis holding significantly more cash on hand, while forecasters rate the race as a toss-up to lean Republican. Traders appear to price in Davis’s personal incumbency advantages and cross-aisle appeal in eastern North Carolina ahead of the November 3 general election, even as the underlying partisan tilt and national environment remain competitive.