US and Israeli forces continue intensive airstrikes targeting Iranian ballistic missile sites, weapons factories, and IRGC command centers under Operation Epic Fury, with over 600 strikes reported since late March and fresh hits near Tehran and Mashhad as of March 27. Iran's rejection of a US 15-point ceasefire proposal—demanding full withdrawal and reparations—coupled with ongoing retaliatory missile launches, signals no de-escalation, driving trader consensus to 95% odds that military action persists through March 31. This commanding position reflects the absence of diplomatic breakthroughs or operational pauses amid statements from President Trump emphasizing rapid degradation of Iran's capabilities. Realistic challenges include sudden multilateral negotiations via Qatar or UN mediation, a unilateral halt order, or Iranian capitulation on nuclear demands, though historical patterns in such conflicts favor prolonged engagements.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourAction militaire jusqu'au 31 mars 95%
31 mars 1.1%
30 mars <1%
29 mars <1%
$2,725,418 Vol.
$2,725,418 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
29 mars
<1%
30 mars
1%
31 mars
1%
Action militaire jusqu'au 31 mars
95%
Action militaire jusqu'au 31 mars 95%
31 mars 1.1%
30 mars <1%
29 mars <1%
$2,725,418 Vol.
$2,725,418 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
29 mars
$299,961 Vol.
<1%
30 mars
$286,235 Vol.
1%
31 mars
$413,432 Vol.
1%
Action militaire jusqu'au 31 mars
$577,902 Vol.
95%
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli forces continue intensive airstrikes targeting Iranian ballistic missile sites, weapons factories, and IRGC command centers under Operation Epic Fury, with over 600 strikes reported since late March and fresh hits near Tehran and Mashhad as of March 27. Iran's rejection of a US 15-point ceasefire proposal—demanding full withdrawal and reparations—coupled with ongoing retaliatory missile launches, signals no de-escalation, driving trader consensus to 95% odds that military action persists through March 31. This commanding position reflects the absence of diplomatic breakthroughs or operational pauses amid statements from President Trump emphasizing rapid degradation of Iran's capabilities. Realistic challenges include sudden multilateral negotiations via Qatar or UN mediation, a unilateral halt order, or Iranian capitulation on nuclear demands, though historical patterns in such conflicts favor prolonged engagements.
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Mar 11, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
Volume
$2,725,418Date de fin
Mar 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 11, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli forces continue intensive airstrikes targeting Iranian ballistic missile sites, weapons factories, and IRGC command centers under Operation Epic Fury, with over 600 strikes reported since late March and fresh hits near Tehran and Mashhad as of March 27. Iran's rejection of a US 15-point ceasefire proposal—demanding full withdrawal and reparations—coupled with ongoing retaliatory missile launches, signals no de-escalation, driving trader consensus to 95% odds that military action persists through March 31. This commanding position reflects the absence of diplomatic breakthroughs or operational pauses amid statements from President Trump emphasizing rapid degradation of Iran's capabilities. Realistic challenges include sudden multilateral negotiations via Qatar or UN mediation, a unilateral halt order, or Iranian capitulation on nuclear demands, though historical patterns in such conflicts favor prolonged engagements.
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,725,418Date de fin
Mar 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 11, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
US and Israeli forces continue intensive airstrikes targeting Iranian ballistic missile sites, weapons factories, and IRGC command centers under Operation Epic Fury, with over 600 strikes reported since late March and fresh hits near Tehran and Mashhad as of March 27. Iran's rejection of a US 15-point ceasefire proposal—demanding full withdrawal and reparations—coupled with ongoing retaliatory missile launches, signals no de-escalation, driving trader consensus to 95% odds that military action persists through March 31. This commanding position reflects the absence of diplomatic breakthroughs or operational pauses amid statements from President Trump emphasizing rapid degradation of Iran's capabilities. Realistic challenges include sudden multilateral negotiations via Qatar or UN mediation, a unilateral halt order, or Iranian capitulation on nuclear demands, though historical patterns in such conflicts favor prolonged engagements.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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