US and Israeli airstrikes against Iran under Operation Epic Fury persisted into the conflict's second month as of March 29, with recent hits on Tehran and military sites amid Iranian missile barrages on Gulf targets and Houthi drone attacks on Israel from March 27-28. Iran's missile and drone capabilities have reportedly degraded significantly, but retaliatory waves exceed 80, sustaining escalation. Diplomatic momentum builds following the US 15-point ceasefire proposal on March 25—demanding nuclear dismantlement and enrichment halt—which Iran rejected as unreasonable while issuing counter-demands including reparations and Strait of Hormuz recognition. Regional diplomats from Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt, and others convene in Pakistan today for de-escalation talks, as the Trump administration signals operations could wrap in weeks without ground troops, though Pentagon preparations raise invasion risks.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourMilitary action against Iran ends by...?
Military action against Iran ends by...?
$244,128 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
March 30
<1%
March 31
1%
15 avril
21%
30 avril
42%
31 mai
75%
30 juin
80%
$244,128 Vol.
March 30
$23,886 Vol.
<1%
March 31
$104,949 Vol.
1%
15 avril
$5,820 Vol.
21%
30 avril
$4,721 Vol.
42%
31 mai
$2,772 Vol.
75%
30 juin
$378 Vol.
80%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli airstrikes against Iran under Operation Epic Fury persisted into the conflict's second month as of March 29, with recent hits on Tehran and military sites amid Iranian missile barrages on Gulf targets and Houthi drone attacks on Israel from March 27-28. Iran's missile and drone capabilities have reportedly degraded significantly, but retaliatory waves exceed 80, sustaining escalation. Diplomatic momentum builds following the US 15-point ceasefire proposal on March 25—demanding nuclear dismantlement and enrichment halt—which Iran rejected as unreasonable while issuing counter-demands including reparations and Strait of Hormuz recognition. Regional diplomats from Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt, and others convene in Pakistan today for de-escalation talks, as the Trump administration signals operations could wrap in weeks without ground troops, though Pentagon preparations raise invasion risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Mar 13, 2026, 3:45 PM ET
Volume
$244,128Date de fin
Jun 30, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 13, 2026, 3:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Résultat proposé: No
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli airstrikes against Iran under Operation Epic Fury persisted into the conflict's second month as of March 29, with recent hits on Tehran and military sites amid Iranian missile barrages on Gulf targets and Houthi drone attacks on Israel from March 27-28. Iran's missile and drone capabilities have reportedly degraded significantly, but retaliatory waves exceed 80, sustaining escalation. Diplomatic momentum builds following the US 15-point ceasefire proposal on March 25—demanding nuclear dismantlement and enrichment halt—which Iran rejected as unreasonable while issuing counter-demands including reparations and Strait of Hormuz recognition. Regional diplomats from Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt, and others convene in Pakistan today for de-escalation talks, as the Trump administration signals operations could wrap in weeks without ground troops, though Pentagon preparations raise invasion risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$244,128Date de fin
Jun 30, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 13, 2026, 3:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Résultat proposé: No
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: No
US and Israeli airstrikes against Iran under Operation Epic Fury persisted into the conflict's second month as of March 29, with recent hits on Tehran and military sites amid Iranian missile barrages on Gulf targets and Houthi drone attacks on Israel from March 27-28. Iran's missile and drone capabilities have reportedly degraded significantly, but retaliatory waves exceed 80, sustaining escalation. Diplomatic momentum builds following the US 15-point ceasefire proposal on March 25—demanding nuclear dismantlement and enrichment halt—which Iran rejected as unreasonable while issuing counter-demands including reparations and Strait of Hormuz recognition. Regional diplomats from Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt, and others convene in Pakistan today for de-escalation talks, as the Trump administration signals operations could wrap in weeks without ground troops, though Pentagon preparations raise invasion risks.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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