US and Israeli airstrikes against Iran, launched February 28 under Operation Epic Fury to degrade nuclear, missile, and military capabilities, persist into day 36 with no declared end or ceasefire. Overnight developments include expanded coalition strikes on Tehran infrastructure like bridges and research centers, while Iran retaliated with ballistic missiles targeting Israel and a Kuwaiti refinery, prompting President Trump's warnings of intensified attacks absent a negotiated settlement reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Failed late-March US ceasefire proposals, rejected by Tehran demanding compensation and guarantees, underscore stalled diplomacy amid contested energy routes and regime stability pressures. Traders weigh Iranian retaliation capacity against coalition target depletion reports ahead of potential escalation.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourMilitary action against Iran ends by...?
Military action against Iran ends by...?
$63,224 Vol.
30 avr. 2026
April 3
<1%
April 4
1%
April 5
1%
April 6
3%
April 7
4%
April 8
13%
April 9
19%
April 10
14%
April 11
41%
April 12
28%
April 13
22%
April 14
18%
April 15
11%
April 16
37%
April 17
30%
April 18
44%
April 19
44%
April 20
25%
April 21
44%
April 22
44%
April 23
44%
April 24
45%
April 25
30%
April 26
44%
April 27
44%
April 28
44%
April 29
44%
April 30
38%
$63,224 Vol.
April 3
$6,268 Vol.
<1%
April 4
$1,940 Vol.
1%
April 5
$1,237 Vol.
1%
April 6
$333 Vol.
3%
April 7
$90 Vol.
4%
April 8
$35 Vol.
13%
April 9
$2,790 Vol.
19%
April 10
$0 Vol.
14%
April 11
$10 Vol.
41%
April 12
$0 Vol.
28%
April 13
$0 Vol.
22%
April 14
$4,614 Vol.
18%
April 15
$159 Vol.
11%
April 16
$0 Vol.
37%
April 17
$0 Vol.
30%
April 18
$0 Vol.
44%
April 19
$0 Vol.
44%
April 20
$0 Vol.
25%
April 21
$0 Vol.
44%
April 22
$0 Vol.
44%
April 23
$0 Vol.
44%
April 24
$0 Vol.
45%
April 25
$2,777 Vol.
30%
April 26
$0 Vol.
44%
April 27
$38 Vol.
44%
April 28
$0 Vol.
44%
April 29
$0 Vol.
44%
April 30
$21,577 Vol.
38%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli airstrikes against Iran, launched February 28 under Operation Epic Fury to degrade nuclear, missile, and military capabilities, persist into day 36 with no declared end or ceasefire. Overnight developments include expanded coalition strikes on Tehran infrastructure like bridges and research centers, while Iran retaliated with ballistic missiles targeting Israel and a Kuwaiti refinery, prompting President Trump's warnings of intensified attacks absent a negotiated settlement reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Failed late-March US ceasefire proposals, rejected by Tehran demanding compensation and guarantees, underscore stalled diplomacy amid contested energy routes and regime stability pressures. Traders weigh Iranian retaliation capacity against coalition target depletion reports ahead of potential escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Mar 27, 2026, 2:04 PM ET
Volume
$63,224Date de fin
30 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 27, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli airstrikes against Iran, launched February 28 under Operation Epic Fury to degrade nuclear, missile, and military capabilities, persist into day 36 with no declared end or ceasefire. Overnight developments include expanded coalition strikes on Tehran infrastructure like bridges and research centers, while Iran retaliated with ballistic missiles targeting Israel and a Kuwaiti refinery, prompting President Trump's warnings of intensified attacks absent a negotiated settlement reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Failed late-March US ceasefire proposals, rejected by Tehran demanding compensation and guarantees, underscore stalled diplomacy amid contested energy routes and regime stability pressures. Traders weigh Iranian retaliation capacity against coalition target depletion reports ahead of potential escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$63,224Date de fin
30 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 27, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US and Israeli airstrikes against Iran, launched February 28 under Operation Epic Fury to degrade nuclear, missile, and military capabilities, persist into day 36 with no declared end or ceasefire. Overnight developments include expanded coalition strikes on Tehran infrastructure like bridges and research centers, while Iran retaliated with ballistic missiles targeting Israel and a Kuwaiti refinery, prompting President Trump's warnings of intensified attacks absent a negotiated settlement reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Failed late-March US ceasefire proposals, rejected by Tehran demanding compensation and guarantees, underscore stalled diplomacy amid contested energy routes and regime stability pressures. Traders weigh Iranian retaliation capacity against coalition target depletion reports ahead of potential escalation.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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