Iran's ongoing ballistic missile and drone barrages against Israel, now in the 29th day of open war with the US and Israel, continue to drive trader consensus on escalation risks, with recent salvos including cluster munitions straining Israel's Iron Dome defenses. Yesterday's Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, power plants, and Tehran infrastructure elicited vows of heavy retaliation from Tehran, while today Iran-backed Houthis launched their first missiles at Israel from Yemen, broadening the proxy conflict. President Trump's repeated extensions of deadlines for reopening the Strait of Hormuz underscore diplomatic pressures amid Iran's depleting arsenal and regional attacks on US bases, with no ceasefire signals amid daily exchanges.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourIran military action against Israel on...?
Iran military action against Israel on...?
$1,045,717 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
March 23
1%
March 27
96%
March 28
100%
March 29
89%
March 30
88%
March 31
89%
$1,045,717 Vol.
March 23
$644,473 Vol.
1%
March 27
$91,609 Vol.
96%
March 28
$70,751 Vol.
100%
March 29
$10,129 Vol.
89%
March 30
$4,830 Vol.
88%
March 31
$3,961 Vol.
89%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel’s soil on the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.Iran's ongoing ballistic missile and drone barrages against Israel, now in the 29th day of open war with the US and Israel, continue to drive trader consensus on escalation risks, with recent salvos including cluster munitions straining Israel's Iron Dome defenses. Yesterday's Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, power plants, and Tehran infrastructure elicited vows of heavy retaliation from Tehran, while today Iran-backed Houthis launched their first missiles at Israel from Yemen, broadening the proxy conflict. President Trump's repeated extensions of deadlines for reopening the Strait of Hormuz underscore diplomatic pressures amid Iran's depleting arsenal and regional attacks on US bases, with no ceasefire signals amid daily exchanges.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel’s soil on the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Marché ouvert : Mar 17, 2026, 5:50 PM ET
Volume
$1,045,717Date de fin
Mar 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 17, 2026, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Résultat proposé: Yes
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel’s soil on the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.Iran's ongoing ballistic missile and drone barrages against Israel, now in the 29th day of open war with the US and Israel, continue to drive trader consensus on escalation risks, with recent salvos including cluster munitions straining Israel's Iron Dome defenses. Yesterday's Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, power plants, and Tehran infrastructure elicited vows of heavy retaliation from Tehran, while today Iran-backed Houthis launched their first missiles at Israel from Yemen, broadening the proxy conflict. President Trump's repeated extensions of deadlines for reopening the Strait of Hormuz underscore diplomatic pressures amid Iran's depleting arsenal and regional attacks on US bases, with no ceasefire signals amid daily exchanges.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel’s soil on the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$1,045,717Date de fin
Mar 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 17, 2026, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Résultat proposé: Yes
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Yes
Iran's ongoing ballistic missile and drone barrages against Israel, now in the 29th day of open war with the US and Israel, continue to drive trader consensus on escalation risks, with recent salvos including cluster munitions straining Israel's Iron Dome defenses. Yesterday's Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, power plants, and Tehran infrastructure elicited vows of heavy retaliation from Tehran, while today Iran-backed Houthis launched their first missiles at Israel from Yemen, broadening the proxy conflict. President Trump's repeated extensions of deadlines for reopening the Strait of Hormuz underscore diplomatic pressures amid Iran's depleting arsenal and regional attacks on US bases, with no ceasefire signals amid daily exchanges.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes