Ongoing US-Israeli airstrikes under Operations Epic Fury and Roaring Lion have targeted Iran's ballistic missile production, nuclear facilities, and military infrastructure since late February 2026, prompting repeated Iranian retaliatory barrages of over a dozen missile and drone waves at Israel, with impacts in Tel Aviv causing injuries and damage near the Orot Rabin Power Plant on March 25. Houthis, acting as an Iran-backed proxy, launched a missile attack on Israel on March 28 amid escalating regional strikes on US bases. President Trump's extension of a deadline to April 7 for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz—coupled with a US 15-point peace proposal delivered via Pakistan—signals potential de-escalation talks, though Tehran rejects negotiations and vows sustained response, leaving traders focused on diplomatic breakthroughs or further escalation signals like additional proxy actions or energy site strikes.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourIran military action against Israel on...?
Iran military action against Israel on...?
$1,331,032 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
March 23
<1%
March 27
97%
March 29
96%
March 30
88%
March 31
86%
$1,331,032 Vol.
March 23
$920,125 Vol.
<1%
March 27
$92,229 Vol.
97%
March 29
$15,994 Vol.
96%
March 30
$5,977 Vol.
88%
March 31
$4,548 Vol.
86%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel’s soil on the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.Ongoing US-Israeli airstrikes under Operations Epic Fury and Roaring Lion have targeted Iran's ballistic missile production, nuclear facilities, and military infrastructure since late February 2026, prompting repeated Iranian retaliatory barrages of over a dozen missile and drone waves at Israel, with impacts in Tel Aviv causing injuries and damage near the Orot Rabin Power Plant on March 25. Houthis, acting as an Iran-backed proxy, launched a missile attack on Israel on March 28 amid escalating regional strikes on US bases. President Trump's extension of a deadline to April 7 for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz—coupled with a US 15-point peace proposal delivered via Pakistan—signals potential de-escalation talks, though Tehran rejects negotiations and vows sustained response, leaving traders focused on diplomatic breakthroughs or further escalation signals like additional proxy actions or energy site strikes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel’s soil on the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Marché ouvert : Mar 17, 2026, 5:50 PM ET
Volume
$1,331,032Date de fin
Mar 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 17, 2026, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Résultat proposé: Yes
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel’s soil on the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.Ongoing US-Israeli airstrikes under Operations Epic Fury and Roaring Lion have targeted Iran's ballistic missile production, nuclear facilities, and military infrastructure since late February 2026, prompting repeated Iranian retaliatory barrages of over a dozen missile and drone waves at Israel, with impacts in Tel Aviv causing injuries and damage near the Orot Rabin Power Plant on March 25. Houthis, acting as an Iran-backed proxy, launched a missile attack on Israel on March 28 amid escalating regional strikes on US bases. President Trump's extension of a deadline to April 7 for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz—coupled with a US 15-point peace proposal delivered via Pakistan—signals potential de-escalation talks, though Tehran rejects negotiations and vows sustained response, leaving traders focused on diplomatic breakthroughs or further escalation signals like additional proxy actions or energy site strikes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel’s soil on the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$1,331,032Date de fin
Mar 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 17, 2026, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Résultat proposé: Yes
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Yes
Ongoing US-Israeli airstrikes under Operations Epic Fury and Roaring Lion have targeted Iran's ballistic missile production, nuclear facilities, and military infrastructure since late February 2026, prompting repeated Iranian retaliatory barrages of over a dozen missile and drone waves at Israel, with impacts in Tel Aviv causing injuries and damage near the Orot Rabin Power Plant on March 25. Houthis, acting as an Iran-backed proxy, launched a missile attack on Israel on March 28 amid escalating regional strikes on US bases. President Trump's extension of a deadline to April 7 for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz—coupled with a US 15-point peace proposal delivered via Pakistan—signals potential de-escalation talks, though Tehran rejects negotiations and vows sustained response, leaving traders focused on diplomatic breakthroughs or further escalation signals like additional proxy actions or energy site strikes.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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