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Monde·Moyen-Orient

Leader iranien fin 2026 ?

Market icon
Monde·Moyen-Orient

Leader iranien fin 2026 ?

Mojtaba Khamenei 64.3%

Reza Pahlavi 11%

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf 5.1%

Pas de chef d'État 3.1%

Polymarket

$5,759,826 Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei 64.3%

Reza Pahlavi 11%

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf 5.1%

Pas de chef d'État 3.1%

Polymarket

$5,759,826 Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei

$1,078,936 Vol.

64%

Reza Pahlavi

$124,428 Vol.

11%

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf

$160,788 Vol.

5%

Pas de chef d'État

$362,958 Vol.

3%

Hassan Rouhani

$265,013 Vol.

3%

Alireza Arafi

$769,934 Vol.

2%

Abbas Araghchi

$91,635 Vol.

2%

Hassan Khomeini

$668,056 Vol.

2%

Sadegh Larijani

$170,268 Vol.

1%

Masoud Pezeshkian

$233,489 Vol.

1%

Muhammad Mirbaqiri

$267,025 Vol.

<1%

Maryam Radjavi

$237,750 Vol.

<1%

Mohammad Khatami

$226,429 Vol.

<1%

Nasir Hosseini

$12,247 Vol.

<1%

Ali Asghar Hejazi

$71,990 Vol.

<1%

Hassan Shariatmadari

$142,079 Vol.

<1%

Seyed Hossein Mousavian

$30,280 Vol.

<1%

Navid Shomali

$50,901 Vol.

<1%

Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel

$32,475 Vol.

<1%

Saeed Jalili

$39,004 Vol.

<1%

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

$45,538 Vol.

<1%

Ahmad Vahidi

$188,601 Vol.

<1%

Mohsen Araki

$25,338 Vol.

<1%

Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani

$17,999 Vol.

<1%

Massoud Rajavi

$19,634 Vol.

<1%

Reza Pirzadeh

$24,660 Vol.

<1%

Mustafa Hijri

$16,445 Vol.

<1%

Ali Motahari

$44,798 Vol.

<1%

Mostafa Pourmohammadi

$59,643 Vol.

<1%

Sadegh Mahsouli

$44,752 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's assassination on February 28, 2026, in US-Israeli strikes during escalating regional conflict, Iran's Assembly of Experts swiftly appointed his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as Supreme Leader in early March, marking the first hereditary succession since 1979 and affirming IRGC dominance amid wartime pressures. Trader consensus at 65% reflects this institutional continuity and his issued statements on Strait of Hormuz threats and nuclear policy, despite prolonged public absence due to reported injuries like a fractured foot, fueling health speculation. Exiled opposition figure Reza Pahlavi trails at 10% on slim prospects for regime collapse, with no major unrest or defections evident; key risks include further strikes, internal challenges, or health developments before year-end resolution.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Volume
$5,759,826
Date de fin
31 déc. 2026
Marché ouvert
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's assassination on February 28, 2026, in US-Israeli strikes during escalating regional conflict, Iran's Assembly of Experts swiftly appointed his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as Supreme Leader in early March, marking the first hereditary succession since 1979 and affirming IRGC dominance amid wartime pressures. Trader consensus at 65% reflects this institutional continuity and his issued statements on Strait of Hormuz threats and nuclear policy, despite prolonged public absence due to reported injuries like a fractured foot, fueling health speculation. Exiled opposition figure Reza Pahlavi trails at 10% on slim prospects for regime collapse, with no major unrest or defections evident; key risks include further strikes, internal challenges, or health developments before year-end resolution.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Volume
$5,759,826
Date de fin
31 déc. 2026
Marché ouvert
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.

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Questions fréquentes

« Leader iranien fin 2026 ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 32 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Mojtaba Khamenei » à 64%, suivi de « Reza Pahlavi » à 11%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 64¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 64% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Leader iranien fin 2026 ? » a généré $5.8 million en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Mar 1, 2026. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Leader iranien fin 2026 ? », parcourez les 32 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Leader iranien fin 2026 ? » est « Mojtaba Khamenei » à 64%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 64% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Reza Pahlavi » à 11%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Leader iranien fin 2026 ? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.