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Climat Et Science·SpaceX

Combien de lancements de SpaceX Starship atteindront l'espace en 2026 ?

Market icon
Climat Et Science·SpaceX

Combien de lancements de SpaceX Starship atteindront l'espace en 2026 ?

déc. 31

déc. 31

<5 60%

5-6 22%

9-10 9.3%

7-8 8%

Polymarket

$402,905 Vol.

<5 60%

5-6 22%

9-10 9.3%

7-8 8%

Polymarket

$402,905 Vol.

<5

$75,807 Vol.

65%

5-6

$82,858 Vol.

22%

7-8

$150,867 Vol.

8%

9-10

$54,940 Vol.

9%

11-12

$2,947 Vol.

5%

13-14

$3,647 Vol.

2%

15-16

$23,563 Vol.

1%

>16

$8,275 Vol.

5%

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors fewer than five SpaceX Starship launches reaching space in 2026 (64.5% implied probability), driven by persistent delays in the program's ramp-up, including the first 2026 flight test (Flight 12) now targeting April after a March 18 static fire of the next-generation V3 vehicle. Only five tests occurred in 2025, with the initial three ending in explosions, underscoring reliability challenges with the reusable super heavy-lift architecture amid FAA licensing hurdles and NASA inspector general warnings of at least two more years of Artemis setbacks. Infrastructure upgrades at Starbase—like new flame trenches and propellant storage—signal ambitions for higher cadence later, but skeptics cite historical timelines and technical risks, with 5-6 launches next at 22%. Watch for Flight 12 success as a key sentiment pivot.

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.

The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$402,905
Date de fin
31 déc. 2026
Marché ouvert
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors fewer than five SpaceX Starship launches reaching space in 2026 (64.5% implied probability), driven by persistent delays in the program's ramp-up, including the first 2026 flight test (Flight 12) now targeting April after a March 18 static fire of the next-generation V3 vehicle. Only five tests occurred in 2025, with the initial three ending in explosions, underscoring reliability challenges with the reusable super heavy-lift architecture amid FAA licensing hurdles and NASA inspector general warnings of at least two more years of Artemis setbacks. Infrastructure upgrades at Starbase—like new flame trenches and propellant storage—signal ambitions for higher cadence later, but skeptics cite historical timelines and technical risks, with 5-6 launches next at 22%. Watch for Flight 12 success as a key sentiment pivot.

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.

The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$402,905
Date de fin
31 déc. 2026
Marché ouvert
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Questions fréquentes

« Combien de lancements de SpaceX Starship atteindront l'espace en 2026 ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 8 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « <5 » à 65%, suivi de « 5-6 » à 22%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 65¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 65% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Combien de lancements de SpaceX Starship atteindront l'espace en 2026 ? » a généré $402.9K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Dec 12, 2025. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Combien de lancements de SpaceX Starship atteindront l'espace en 2026 ? », parcourez les 8 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Combien de lancements de SpaceX Starship atteindront l'espace en 2026 ? » est « <5 » à 65%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 65% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « 5-6 » à 22%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Combien de lancements de SpaceX Starship atteindront l'espace en 2026 ? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.