Trader consensus favors 2–3 ships successfully targeted by Iran or proxies by April 30 (48%), reflecting diminished Iranian naval capabilities following US and Israeli strikes that destroyed 16 minelayers on March 10 and killed navy commander Alireza Tangsiri on March 26, which slowed attacks after an intense early-March surge of over 20 confirmed hits in the Strait of Hormuz. Recent Houthi threats to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait—backed by Iran amid the ongoing war—elevate 10+ odds to 33.5%, signaling escalation risks in the Red Sea if US operations intensify, though defensive reinforcements and stalled shipping have limited successes since the April 1 strike on the Aqua 1 tanker.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHow many ships will Iran successfully target by April 30?
How many ships will Iran successfully target by April 30?
2–3 51%
10+ 33.5%
6–7 19%
4–5 18%
$35,762 Vol.
$35,762 Vol.
30 avr. 2026
2–3
48%
4–5
16%
6–7
14%
8–9
9%
10+
33%
2–3 51%
10+ 33.5%
6–7 19%
4–5 18%
$35,762 Vol.
$35,762 Vol.
30 avr. 2026
2–3
$3,646 Vol.
48%
4–5
$169 Vol.
16%
6–7
$2,163 Vol.
14%
8–9
$4,889 Vol.
9%
10+
$166 Vol.
33%
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors 2–3 ships successfully targeted by Iran or proxies by April 30 (48%), reflecting diminished Iranian naval capabilities following US and Israeli strikes that destroyed 16 minelayers on March 10 and killed navy commander Alireza Tangsiri on March 26, which slowed attacks after an intense early-March surge of over 20 confirmed hits in the Strait of Hormuz. Recent Houthi threats to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait—backed by Iran amid the ongoing war—elevate 10+ odds to 33.5%, signaling escalation risks in the Red Sea if US operations intensify, though defensive reinforcements and stalled shipping have limited successes since the April 1 strike on the Aqua 1 tanker.
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Mar 24, 2026, 1:08 PM ET
Volume
$35,762Date de fin
30 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 24, 2026, 1:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors 2–3 ships successfully targeted by Iran or proxies by April 30 (48%), reflecting diminished Iranian naval capabilities following US and Israeli strikes that destroyed 16 minelayers on March 10 and killed navy commander Alireza Tangsiri on March 26, which slowed attacks after an intense early-March surge of over 20 confirmed hits in the Strait of Hormuz. Recent Houthi threats to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait—backed by Iran amid the ongoing war—elevate 10+ odds to 33.5%, signaling escalation risks in the Red Sea if US operations intensify, though defensive reinforcements and stalled shipping have limited successes since the April 1 strike on the Aqua 1 tanker.
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$35,762Date de fin
30 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 24, 2026, 1:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors 2–3 ships successfully targeted by Iran or proxies by April 30 (48%), reflecting diminished Iranian naval capabilities following US and Israeli strikes that destroyed 16 minelayers on March 10 and killed navy commander Alireza Tangsiri on March 26, which slowed attacks after an intense early-March surge of over 20 confirmed hits in the Strait of Hormuz. Recent Houthi threats to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait—backed by Iran amid the ongoing war—elevate 10+ odds to 33.5%, signaling escalation risks in the Red Sea if US operations intensify, though defensive reinforcements and stalled shipping have limited successes since the April 1 strike on the Aqua 1 tanker.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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