Trader sentiment on Polymarket prices zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 (0 basis points) at a leading 35.8% implied probability, followed by one cut (25 bps) at 22.5%, driven by yesterday's stronger-than-expected March nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs and unemployment falling to 4.3%, signaling labor market resilience amid an oil price shock from the Iran conflict. The March 18 FOMC dot plot median still envisions one cut to 3.4% fed funds by year-end, but elevated headline inflation—steady at 2.4% YoY in February yet nowcasting higher per Cleveland Fed—has markets via CME FedWatch implying holds or even hikes. Watch the April 28-29 FOMC and upcoming CPI for shifts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourCombien de baisses de taux de la Fed en 2026 ?
Combien de baisses de taux de la Fed en 2026 ?
0 (0 bps) 35.8%
1 (25 bps) 23%
2 (50 pb) 17%
3 (75 points de base) 9%
$16,122,202 Vol.
$16,122,202 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
0 (0 bps)
36%
1 (25 bps)
23%
2 (50 pb)
17%
3 (75 points de base)
9%
4 (100 pb)
5%
5 (125 pb)
2%
6 (150 points de base)
1%
7 (175 points de base)
1%
8 (200 points de base)
1%
9 (225 points de base)
<1%
10 (250 pb)
<1%
11 (275 points de base)
<1%
12+ (300+ bps)
1%
0 (0 bps) 35.8%
1 (25 bps) 23%
2 (50 pb) 17%
3 (75 points de base) 9%
$16,122,202 Vol.
$16,122,202 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
0 (0 bps)
$2,752,815 Vol.
36%
1 (25 bps)
$907,605 Vol.
23%
2 (50 pb)
$835,858 Vol.
17%
3 (75 points de base)
$805,584 Vol.
9%
4 (100 pb)
$816,373 Vol.
5%
5 (125 pb)
$908,919 Vol.
2%
6 (150 points de base)
$1,928,160 Vol.
1%
7 (175 points de base)
$815,900 Vol.
1%
8 (200 points de base)
$1,059,094 Vol.
1%
9 (225 points de base)
$955,067 Vol.
<1%
10 (250 pb)
$1,394,541 Vol.
<1%
11 (275 points de base)
$1,290,563 Vol.
<1%
12+ (300+ bps)
$1,652,960 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Trader sentiment on Polymarket prices zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 (0 basis points) at a leading 35.8% implied probability, followed by one cut (25 bps) at 22.5%, driven by yesterday's stronger-than-expected March nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs and unemployment falling to 4.3%, signaling labor market resilience amid an oil price shock from the Iran conflict. The March 18 FOMC dot plot median still envisions one cut to 3.4% fed funds by year-end, but elevated headline inflation—steady at 2.4% YoY in February yet nowcasting higher per Cleveland Fed—has markets via CME FedWatch implying holds or even hikes. Watch the April 28-29 FOMC and upcoming CPI for shifts.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Marché ouvert : Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET
Volume
$16,122,202Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Trader sentiment on Polymarket prices zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 (0 basis points) at a leading 35.8% implied probability, followed by one cut (25 bps) at 22.5%, driven by yesterday's stronger-than-expected March nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs and unemployment falling to 4.3%, signaling labor market resilience amid an oil price shock from the Iran conflict. The March 18 FOMC dot plot median still envisions one cut to 3.4% fed funds by year-end, but elevated headline inflation—steady at 2.4% YoY in February yet nowcasting higher per Cleveland Fed—has markets via CME FedWatch implying holds or even hikes. Watch the April 28-29 FOMC and upcoming CPI for shifts.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Volume
$16,122,202Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader sentiment on Polymarket prices zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 (0 basis points) at a leading 35.8% implied probability, followed by one cut (25 bps) at 22.5%, driven by yesterday's stronger-than-expected March nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs and unemployment falling to 4.3%, signaling labor market resilience amid an oil price shock from the Iran conflict. The March 18 FOMC dot plot median still envisions one cut to 3.4% fed funds by year-end, but elevated headline inflation—steady at 2.4% YoY in February yet nowcasting higher per Cleveland Fed—has markets via CME FedWatch implying holds or even hikes. Watch the April 28-29 FOMC and upcoming CPI for shifts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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