Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 9°C and 10°C for Paris's highest temperature on March 26, driven by the latest Météo-France and ECMWF ensemble forecasts projecting daytime highs of 9-11°C amid lingering cool northerly flows and partial cloud cover. These models show a slight spread due to uncertainty in afternoon solar heating and urban heat island effects boosting temps by 1-2°C in central Paris; drier runs favor 10-11°C, while overcast scenarios align with 9°C. Historical March 26 averages hover near 12°C, but this year's jet stream dip has suppressed warmth, with official observations from CDG airport as the resolution benchmark keeping lower outcomes viable despite minimal tail risk for extremes.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Paris on March 26?
Highest temperature in Paris on March 26?
10°C 38%
9°C 34%
11°C 14%
8°C 9%
$31,177 Vol.
$31,177 Vol.
4°C or below
<1%
5°C
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
2%
8°C
9%
9°C
34%
10°C
38%
11°C
14%
12°C
3%
13°C
1%
14°C or higher
1%
10°C 38%
9°C 34%
11°C 14%
8°C 9%
$31,177 Vol.
$31,177 Vol.
4°C or below
<1%
5°C
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
2%
8°C
9%
9°C
34%
10°C
38%
11°C
14%
12°C
3%
13°C
1%
14°C or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Charles de Gaulle Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 22, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 9°C and 10°C for Paris's highest temperature on March 26, driven by the latest Météo-France and ECMWF ensemble forecasts projecting daytime highs of 9-11°C amid lingering cool northerly flows and partial cloud cover. These models show a slight spread due to uncertainty in afternoon solar heating and urban heat island effects boosting temps by 1-2°C in central Paris; drier runs favor 10-11°C, while overcast scenarios align with 9°C. Historical March 26 averages hover near 12°C, but this year's jet stream dip has suppressed warmth, with official observations from CDG airport as the resolution benchmark keeping lower outcomes viable despite minimal tail risk for extremes.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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