Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts drive the neck-and-neck odds for Munich's March 20 high temperature, with deterministic runs clustering around 12°C amid a high-pressure ridge ushering mild continental air into southern Germany. Trader sentiment tilts slightly toward 12°C (36%) over 13°C+ (33.5%) due to yesterday's model updates showing capped warming from persistent mid-level clouds, while 11°C (26.5%) gains from historical March baselines averaging 10-12°C and potential Atlantic moisture influx. Key differentiator: ridge amplification could push 13°C+ if jet stream dips south, per 12Z ensembles, but spread exceeds 2°C signals uncertainty ahead of DWD hourly updates. Resolution hinges on verified airport observations at Munich (EDDM).
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Munich on March 20?
Highest temperature in Munich on March 20?
12°C 36%
13°C or higher 34%
11°C 11%
10°C 8%
$14,585 Vol.
$14,585 Vol.
3°C or below
<1%
4°C
<1%
5°C
1%
6°C
1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
2%
9°C
3%
10°C
8%
11°C
20%
12°C
36%
13°C or higher
34%
12°C 36%
13°C or higher 34%
11°C 11%
10°C 8%
$14,585 Vol.
$14,585 Vol.
3°C or below
<1%
4°C
<1%
5°C
1%
6°C
1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
2%
9°C
3%
10°C
8%
11°C
20%
12°C
36%
13°C or higher
34%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 16, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts drive the neck-and-neck odds for Munich's March 20 high temperature, with deterministic runs clustering around 12°C amid a high-pressure ridge ushering mild continental air into southern Germany. Trader sentiment tilts slightly toward 12°C (36%) over 13°C+ (33.5%) due to yesterday's model updates showing capped warming from persistent mid-level clouds, while 11°C (26.5%) gains from historical March baselines averaging 10-12°C and potential Atlantic moisture influx. Key differentiator: ridge amplification could push 13°C+ if jet stream dips south, per 12Z ensembles, but spread exceeds 2°C signals uncertainty ahead of DWD hourly updates. Resolution hinges on verified airport observations at Munich (EDDM).
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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