Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 64-67°F highs for Chicago on March 26, driven by the National Weather Service's latest forecast predicting a peak near 66°F amid a building high-pressure ridge ushering southerly winds and above-normal temperatures. Ensemble models from NOAA's Global Forecast System and European Centre show convergence in the mid-60s, though slight divergences persist: GFS leans warmer at 68°F due to stronger warm-air advection, while ECMWF tempers to 64°F with potential mid-afternoon cloudiness. Historical March 26 averages hover at 48°F, but current jet stream positioning favors this warm anomaly over cooler outcomes below 60°F, with low odds for extremes reflecting minimal cold front risks per upper-air analyses.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Chicago on March 26?
Highest temperature in Chicago on March 26?
64-65°F 17%
66-67°F 16%
59°F or below 14.5%
68-69°F 13%
$82,191 Vol.
$82,191 Vol.
59°F or below
15%
60-61°F
11%
62-63°F
11%
64-65°F
17%
66-67°F
16%
68-69°F
13%
70-71°F
11%
72-73°F
4%
74-75°F
2%
76-77°F
2%
78°F or higher
3%
64-65°F 17%
66-67°F 16%
59°F or below 14.5%
68-69°F 13%
$82,191 Vol.
$82,191 Vol.
59°F or below
15%
60-61°F
11%
62-63°F
11%
64-65°F
17%
66-67°F
16%
68-69°F
13%
70-71°F
11%
72-73°F
4%
74-75°F
2%
76-77°F
2%
78°F or higher
3%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 22, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 64-67°F highs for Chicago on March 26, driven by the National Weather Service's latest forecast predicting a peak near 66°F amid a building high-pressure ridge ushering southerly winds and above-normal temperatures. Ensemble models from NOAA's Global Forecast System and European Centre show convergence in the mid-60s, though slight divergences persist: GFS leans warmer at 68°F due to stronger warm-air advection, while ECMWF tempers to 64°F with potential mid-afternoon cloudiness. Historical March 26 averages hover at 48°F, but current jet stream positioning favors this warm anomaly over cooler outcomes below 60°F, with low odds for extremes reflecting minimal cold front risks per upper-air analyses.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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